I’m calling it: Boris is going to win this election
From our UK edition
I am going to stick my neck out and say it’s going to be Boris by 58 seats. How do I reach that conclusion? Because the pollsters have a problem with estimating the Labour vote. And this time it is their turn to over-estimate it. In 2010 the final polls put Labour on between 27 and 29 per cent – against the 29.7 per cent which Gordon Brown actually achieved. In 2015 the last polls put Ed Miliband between 33 and 35 per cent – compared with the 31.2 per cent he actually achieved. All polls converged on predicting either a dead heat or a Tory lead of 1 per cent – except, that is, for a Survation poll the day before the election which predicted a Tory lead of 6 per cent, remarkably close to the 6.6 per cent lead which gave David Cameron his majority of 15.