Ross Clark

Coronavirus, we have been warned many times, has brought scammers out in force. But lobbyists are not far behind. Their activities may not be illegal, but they are pretty disgraceful nonetheless. Hardly had the coronavirus outbreak begun in January than my email inbox began to fill up with press releases claiming that the contagion was being spread by banknotes and coins — coming, er, from businesses with a vested interest in cashless payments. In Britain, the payments industry seized the moment to lobby the government — successfully — for the limit on payments via contactless cards to be raised from £30 to £45. The new limit duly came into effect on April 1.

It just keeps on getting worse. Like the death toll from Covid-19 itself, forecasts for the economy in the wake of the crisis keep on creeping upwards. Today, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts that UK GDP could contract by 35 per cent by June if the lockdown continues until then, before 'bouncing back quickly'. Unemployment could rise, it says, by two million, with the unemployment rate climbing to 10 per cent. That is quite a shock given that on the eve of this crisis we were celebrating the highest employment ever and the lowest unemployment in 45 years. The 35 per cent contraction is making all the headlines today – as well it might.

This morning we have some data giving a little more insight into the great unknown of the coronavirus pandemic: just how widely among the population has SARS-CoV-2 – the virus which causes Covid-19 – spread among the general population. A team at the University of Bonn has tested a randomised sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt in the north-west of the country, one of the epicentres of the outbreak in Germany. The study found that two per cent of the population currently had the virus and that 14 per cent were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected – whether or not they experienced any symptoms.

Is there anything more ridiculous, when we have hundreds of thousands of workers sat idly at home to avoid spreading coronavirus, to be flying in fruit and vegetable-pickers from Eastern Europe? Yet that is exactly what is about to happen. Concordia, which supplies seasonal labour to UK farms from overseas, says it is looking to charter planes to bring in 10,000 workers from Bulgaria. Without them, it says, fruit and vegetables will have to be left to rot in the fields. Sure, there is nothing wrong with using migrant labour on British farms in normal times. Until a few weeks ago we had pretty well full employment; there were few Britons prepared to work in the field.

We have, of course, been transformed into a nation of hoarders and panic buyers. We know this because everyone keeps telling us. There are the queues around the block, waiting for Asda to open; the tearful nurse on Twitter who couldn’t get any food after a 48-hour shift; anecdotes galore about people loading loo rolls into their trolleys by the tree trunk-load, fighting over each consignment as it arrives. How much more civilised we all were – it has been claimed – during wartime. I’m sure there are people panic-buying and hoarding vast quantities of tinned foods, but is it all quite so bad as being made out?

It has become a received wisdom that coronavirus has forced Boris Johnson to morph into Jeremy Corbyn. Vast handouts to business, surging borrowing, open-ended commitments to NHS spending: there’s certainly a whiff of Labour policy in there. Some Conservative ministers even appear to see it that way; 'We'll find ourselves implementing most of Jeremy Corbyn's programme,' one of them told Robert Peston yesterday. But no, we have not ended up, by accident, with the government that we would have had if we had voted for Jeremy Corbyn in December. There is a world of difference between the measures that Rishi Sunak’s emergency measures and what Corbyn would have unleashed on the country.  True, borrowing is going to rise to eye-watering levels.

Boris Johnson, according to a large Twitter mob this morning, is a reckless libertarian – ignoring the drastic but effective measures being taken against coronavirus in other countries – in the same spirit he once praised the mayor in Jaws who kept the beaches open in spite of swimmers being eaten. A large body of opinion appears to be on the side of Jeremy Hunt, who questioned the government’s strategy on Channel 4 news last night. But there is a fundamental problem with this narrative – and not just that many of the same people now praising Hunt were lambasting him several years ago as a charlatan, ignoring the advice of experts in the NHS.