Ross Clark

Are we a lot closer to achieving herd immunity with Covid-19 than has been made out? It is a question which has been asked many times, not least because the disease has a tendency to fizzle out in communities where around a fifth of people have been infected – as has been observed in London, New York, the Brazilian city of Manaus and the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The government’s switch away from a herd immunity strategy to one of full lockdown in March, on the other hand, was based partly on the assumption that we would need at least 60 per cent of people to be infected before herd immunity was achieved.

The latest data on weekly deaths in England and Wales, published today by the Office of National Statistics, show what could be the beginning of a disturbing trend. From mid-June to mid-July, the number of excess deaths has been running at below the five-year average. But for the second week running, that has reversed: in the week ending 21 August there were 9,631 deaths, 474 higher (5.2 per cent) than the five-year average for this week of the year. The rise does not appear to have been caused by any increase in deaths from Covid-19, however. On the contrary, there were just 138 deaths for which the death certificate mentioned Covid-19 – the lowest for 22 weeks.

As schools return to full in-person teaching, a survey reveals just how far behind pupils are in their education. The National Foundation for Education Research polled 3,000 head teachers and other senior staff across 2,200 schools to ask how their pupils’ education has been affected. The replies reveal not just how far behind children have fallen, but how wide the gap has grown between the most and least-disadvantaged. The average response is that pupils are three months behind where they would normally be at this time of year. Just two per cent of teachers believe that their pupils have managed to keep up to date with learning. Ten per cent say that pupils are five months behind and four per cent believe their students are more than six months behind.

According to Jo Grady of the University and College Union, universities risk becoming the ‘care homes of the second wave’ unless students defy the government’s attempt to get them back in face-to-face education. She went on to claim that a return to campus ‘risks doing untold damage to people's health and exacerbating the worst public health crisis of our lifetimes’ and could lead to a ‘silent avalanche of infections’. Are these fears justified, or are they an attempt by the union to get its members out of having to do any work (while presumably collecting their salaries)? Any large number of people getting together and mixing from across the country risks some spreading of an infectious disease.

There are many reasons why employees might want to return to their offices and why their employers might be keen to get them there – such as to promote the exchange of ideas in an active environment, to help new recruits learn on the job, and, as Matthew Lynn argued here earlier, for employees to avoid their jobs being outsourced to South Asia. But is it really the job of government to launch a ‘back to the office’ campaign just to prop up the nation’s coffee shops?

Just how many people have died of Covid-19, as opposed to having died with the virus? It is a poignant question, especially after it was revealed that Public Health England had been counting a Covid death as anyone who died after testing positive for the virus, even if they swiftly recovered and went on to die of some other cause, like under a proverbial bus. A study by the health authorities in the Östergötland region of south-eastern Sweden aims to answer the question. The study looks at the cases of 122 people who have died in the region outside of a hospital setting – either at home or in accommodation for the elderly – and whose deaths were attributed to Covid-19. Half of this group were aged 88 or over.

The death drought continues. For the eighth week in a row the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has recorded fewer deaths in England and Wales than would be expected at this time of year. In the week ending 7 August, 8,945 people died, one fewer than the previous week and 157 (1.7 per cent) lower than the five-year average for this week of the year. There is, however, a geographical divide: deaths in the East Midlands are running five per cent higher than the five-year average. While deaths in the North East and North West are slightly higher than usual. What should be worrying the government is the sharp rise of people dying in private homes With the number of deaths across England and Wales below average, the figure for ‘excess deaths’ for 2020 is also down.

It turns out we’re not quite so in awe of predictive modelling after all. How different it was back in March when Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College published their paper predicting 250,000 deaths from Covid unless the government changed course and put the country into lockdown. It was ‘the science’; it was fact, beyond question. Yet no sooner had the A-level results been published last week than a very different attitude began to prevail. How terrible, nearly everyone now says, that an 18-year-old’s future can be determined by an algorithm which tries to predict what grade they would have achieved had they sat the cancelled exams.