Ross Clark

Ross Clark

Ross Clark is a leader writer and columnist who has written for The Spectator for three decades. He writes on Substack, at Ross on Why?

What per cent of Covid deaths are directly from Covid?

From our UK edition

Just how many people have died of Covid-19, as opposed to having died with the virus? It is a poignant question, especially after it was revealed that Public Health England had been counting a Covid death as anyone who died after testing positive for the virus, even if they swiftly recovered and went on to die of some other cause, like under a proverbial bus. A study by the health authorities in the Östergötland region of south-eastern Sweden aims to answer the question. The study looks at the cases of 122 people who have died in the region outside of a hospital setting – either at home or in accommodation for the elderly – and whose deaths were attributed to Covid-19. Half of this group were aged 88 or over.

Could blood plasma be used to treat Covid-19?

From our UK edition

What are we to make of the decision by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to grant emergency use authorisation for blood plasma treatment of Covid-19? Is this a medical breakthrough or a dangerous move forced on it by a desperate president who sees his electoral chances slipping away unless he somehow gets on top of the crisis over the next few weeks? It goes without saying that the approval of drugs ought to be above partisan politics. Introducing novel drugs into everyday use has the potential to bring a huge amount of good – but also the potential to cause a great deal of harm. The only satisfactory way for such decisions to be made is through an independent body that is strong enough to resist pressure from politicians, pharmaceutical companies or anyone else.

What does the evidence say on re-opening schools?

From our UK edition

It is still far from clear whether schools will succeed in re-opening next week, as government ministers, education authorities and unions battle it out over safety – or supposed safety – concerns. Now, as back in May, when the government first proposed re-opening schools, the unions have demanded evidence that it will be safe for children to return to the classroom. The difference now is that we do have real-world evidence on the spread of Covid-19 in schools. Public Health England (PHE) has analysed what happened when over a million children finally returned to school in June. In the subsequent weeks until the end of term, 70 children and 128 staff tested positive for Covid-19.

Ending the eviction ban makes sense

From our UK edition

With GCSEs out of the way, we didn't have to wait long for the next campaign to make out the Tories to be a bunch of heartless monsters – and for the Tories to fold. This one revolved around the temporary ban on evictions for tenants of privately-rented properties, which was due to come to an end on Monday but has now been extended for a month. Shadow house secretary Thangam Debbonaire took to Twitter this morning to denounce it as an ‘extraordinary thing to do’, to lift the ban when so many people are facing problems paying their rent. That there are a great number of tenants in financial difficulty is clear. According to the charity Shelter, 227,000 private tenants have fallen into arrears with their rent.

Is this the end of the line for public transport?

From our UK edition

News that rail fares are to rise by 1.6 per cent in January, and public transport fares in London by 2.6 per cent, would normally be met with outrage – how dare they jack up the fares again when the trains are late and I can’t get a seat. Yet this time around the news has hardly raised a whimper. After all, who uses trains any more? There’s some sort of semblance of normality returning to shops, pubs, restaurants. But larges parts of the public transport network have been all but abandoned – even though the government is no longer officially telling us not to use them.  Department for Transport figures from Monday show use of national rail services to be running at just 23 per cent of the level they were at the beginning of March.

University challenge: the next education crisis

From our UK edition

On the insistence of university authorities, freshers’ week will be an online affair this year. But if this autumn is not much fun for students, it will be a lot less fun still for university staff whose admissions system has just been thrown into turmoil by the A-level results debacle. While some institutions now face overcrowding, others face financial ruin. When the Education Secretary Gavin Williamson announced on Monday that he was abandoning the algorithm devised by Ofqual to moderate A-level results and would allow candidates to keep the grades estimated by their teachers, students were relieved — many more will, after all, now be able to go to their favoured university. Admissions officers at the top universities were rather less happy.

Did female leaders trump men in dealing with the pandemic?

From our UK edition

It isn’t hard to imagine what would happen if an academic produced a paper claiming that countries led by men were more entrepreneurial or are better at negotiating international deals. The sky would fall in on them before the ink was dry. Their paper wouldn’t find a mainstream journal to publish it, anyway, but the mere existence of the study would be enough to have them denounced by students and thrown out of their university. But if you were to publish a study claiming that countries led by women have coped better with the Covid-19 pandemic, with fewer cases and fewer deaths than countries led my men?

Why weren’t we wearing masks at the start of the crisis?

From our UK edition

The rise of the face mask has been one of the remarkable features of the later period of the Covid-19 epidemic. Yesterday, France announced that face coverings are going to become mandatory in workplaces where more than one employee is present. It is quite a cultural change for a country that previously banned face coverings in public. Could mask-wearing have been used as an alternative to economically-ruinous lockdown? Compulsory masks in shops are becoming the norm around the world – and in many cases the obligation now extends to the streets and other outdoor public places too.

Why are more people dying at home?

From our UK edition

The death drought continues. For the eighth week in a row the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has recorded fewer deaths in England and Wales than would be expected at this time of year. In the week ending 7 August, 8,945 people died, one fewer than the previous week and 157 (1.7 per cent) lower than the five-year average for this week of the year. There is, however, a geographical divide: deaths in the East Midlands are running five per cent higher than the five-year average. While deaths in the North East and North West are slightly higher than usual. What should be worrying the government is the sharp rise of people dying in private homes With the number of deaths across England and Wales below average, the figure for ‘excess deaths’ for 2020 is also down.

A-levels and the dangers of predictive modelling

From our UK edition

It turns out we’re not quite so in awe of predictive modelling after all. How different it was back in March when Professor Neil Ferguson and his team at Imperial College published their paper predicting 250,000 deaths from Covid unless the government changed course and put the country into lockdown. It was ‘the science’; it was fact, beyond question. Yet no sooner had the A-level results been published last week than a very different attitude began to prevail. How terrible, nearly everyone now says, that an 18-year-old’s future can be determined by an algorithm which tries to predict what grade they would have achieved had they sat the cancelled exams.

Was Sweden’s refusal to lockdown a gruesome mistake?

From our UK edition

Was there ever a jury destined to spend so long over its deliberations as the one considering whether Sweden made a terrible error over its refusal to go into lockdown? Just when you think the data points in one direction, another piece of data nods in the other. The case against Sweden rests largely on its death toll being significantly higher than that of its Nordic neighbours: 572 per million compared with 107 for Denmark, 60 for Finland and 48 for Norway. But then it also happens to be lower than several countries which had especially severe lockdowns, such as Spain (612), Britain (609) and Italy (583). But what of the economy? The counsel for Sweden can point out that the country’s GDP fell in the second quarter by 8.

Boris’s French quarantine makes no sense

From our UK edition

Covid-19 has brought us a Dunkirk spirit alright. Once again we have hundreds of thousands of Brits in a mad scramble to get back to Britain from France, as soon as a flotilla of ships will let them. It is just that this time around it feels a little more self-inflicted than last time. Have ministers learned nothing from the fiasco of Spain a couple of weeks ago? Holidaymakers then were given a few hours notice before quarantine rules were brought in, leaving many desperately trying to book flights at horribly inflated prices or else risk having to self-isolate for 14 days upon their return. It went so well that the government has repeated it with France, where 450,000 Britons are currently thought to be on holiday.

What’s the true cost of lockdown on our kids’ futures?

From our UK edition

We’ve heard endless statistics on the likely death toll from Covid-19, and over the past week we have learned just how great was the economic devastation in most countries in the second quarter as they locked down to deal with the disease. But what about the global impact on children’s education? That is something the World Bank has attempted to estimate. School closures, it concludes, effectively reduce the times spent in education by between 0.3 and 0.9 years. Globally, before the pandemic, the average child went through 7.9 years of schooling. For the Covid generation this will be reduced to between 7.0 and 7.6 years.

Summer flu is now more deadly than Covid

From our UK edition

We are, of course, in the middle of a deadly pandemic of a novel infectious disease. It’s just that it is not, at present, killing remotely as many people in England and Wales as that boring old disease which no-one seems ever to worry about: the summer flu. Winter flu, yes – sometimes we worry about that overwhelming the NHS. We take the precaution of vaccination the elderly and other vulnerable groups. But the summer flu? It hardly registers. Yet few seem to have noticed, while we fret about whether reopening schools, bars and so on will cause a second wave of Covid-19, that flu (and pneumonia) appears to be killing five times as many people in England and Wales.

How Covid spread in Sweden’s care homes

From our UK edition

Why did Covid prove so lethal in care homes? Between 2 March and 12 June, there were 66,112 deaths of care home residents in England. Of these, 19,394 ‘involved’ Covid (in the Office of National Statistics’s own terminology) – 29.3 per cent of the total. As has been apparent from the beginning of this crisis, the risk of dying of Covid-19 sharply rises with age, so in that sense it is not surprising for deaths among care home residents to be high – but why has it proved so difficult to protect residents from the disease, not just in Britain but in many countries?

Is Sturgeon right to brag about Scotland’s coronavirus response?

From our UK edition

What political opportunities Covid-19 has presented for Nicola Sturgeon. Day after day in recent weeks she has appeared at her press conference, presenting a picture of a Scotland where the disease has been all but eliminated – placed in contrast with England where, she says, the government is merely trying to contain the disease, and not very well at that. It is an image which, naturally, aides the cause of Scottish independence. To remind us of the game she is playing, she has several times pointedly raised, or failed to rule out, the threat of imposing quarantine on visitors from England. But is the image of a Covid death-free Scotland fair? Interesting analysis by Sam Taylor lays bare the accuracy of Sturgeon’s – and other nationalists’ – claims.

Has Trump’s Covid-19 response really been so dire?

From our UK edition

The sight of Donald Trump fumbling with charts during his interview on HBO this Monday has provided much ammunition for his enemies. The words ‘train wreck’ and ‘toe-curling’ have been used multiple times to describe how the President insisted that the US has one of the lowest death rates from Covid-19, while interviewer Jonathan Swan quoted figures suggesting the US has one of the worst rates. True, Trump looked ill-prepared, but was he fibbing, as many of his critics have implied? America cannot claim to have a lower death rate than comparable western countries – but neither does it come out especially badly The truth lies somewhere between what Trump and Swan were each trying to assert.

Will reopening schools really cause a second spike?

From our UK edition

Why do so many news outlets – the BBC in particular – prefer reporting grim worst-case scenarios made by mathematical models to more optimistic real-world data? The Today programme excelled itself again this morning by putting in its lead 8.10am slot a study by UCL and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine into the possible consequences of the Covid-19 epidemic on reopening schools. Many listeners will have picked up on, and gone away with, one simple message: that a second spike of Covid-19 next winter could be twice as large as the first.

How does the Northern lockdown square with levelling up?

From our UK edition

Remember levelling up, whereby low-income areas in the Midlands and North would enjoy a greater share of the nation’s wealth? It is pretty hard to square with the government’s policy on releasing the country from lockdown. Rather, policy seems to be construed so as to make sure that the economies of the Midlands and North suffer most. When Covid-19 was raging in London in the spring, the whole country was forced into lockdown together. People in, say, Wigan were ordered to stay at home, even though there was less circulation of the virus there than in Westminster. But now the virus is a little more active in parts of the Midlands and North than it is in the South, what happens? We have local and regional lockdowns which affect only the former.