Ross Clark

As with Covid-19 it will take time for the full consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine to become apparent. But one unexpected impact is already becoming clear: that on air freight. Ukraine, it turns out, occupies a niche at the very heavy end of the industry. Ukrainian company Antonov manufactures the world’s largest transport planes in the shape of the An-225 – a six-engined behemoth built by the Soviets in 1985 and capable of a maximum take-off weight of 640 tonnes – and the slightly smaller An-124. By contrast, the freighter version of the Boeing 747-400 has a maximum take off weight of 450 tonnes.

You may never have heard of the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications — or at least not by its full name. Even if you had you may have mistaken it for a fairly inconsequential trade body that holds rather dull conferences in hotel function rooms in places like Frankfurt.  Yet it finds itself at the centre of the West’s response against Vladimir Putin. Swift, as it is otherwise known, is the system by which banks communicate in order to undertake cross-border financial transactions. This morning the Ukrainian foreign minister pleaded with the West to cut off Russia from the system. Britain would like to do just that, as would some of the smaller EU states.

Don’t be fooled by the pictures that will shortly start to emerge of traders apparently tearing their hair out against of backdrop of red screens. A proper crisis is exactly what Wall Street traders want — to provoke yet another stimulus package, as well as the cancellation of interest rate rises. In the Alice in Wonderland world of bubblenomics, bad news is good, and good news is bad. If we have good economic figures, there is a danger that the Fed, the Bank of England and other central banks will take away the punch bowl. On the other hand, all we need is a sudden crisis that gives the impression, however briefly, that the world is coming to an end — and back will come the bowl, with an even stronger mix than before.

If Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was expecting to bat away some gentle questions on monetary policy before the Commons this morning, he hadn’t reckoned on Labour MP Angela Eagle. She was quietly frothing with rage at Bailey’s recent suggestion that workers need to exercise restraint when asking for a pay rise in order to tackle inflation.  Eagle began like the late Bamber Gascoigne with a series of quick-fire questions on the median salary of UK workers and care workers. Alas, salaries turned out not to be Bailey’s specialist subject — not even when Eagle asked him about his own. 'It’s somewhere over £500,000,' Bailey stumbled, before adding 'I don’t carry that around in my head'.

So, Nord Stream 2 will not be plugged into Germany’s gas grid. A little surprisingly, Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been first out of the blocks this morning in the western economic response to Putin’s recognition of breakaway states in eastern Ukraine. The block is not total: what Scholz says is that the certification process for the pipeline will be halted — leaving open the possibility that it might, after all, be connected if Putin starts to behave himself, or Germany becomes especially desperate for gas. Nevertheless, it is a significant move which will have an economic impact on Russia. But it is astonishing that the project was ever allowed to come this far in the first place.

The last time that US inflation hit 7.5 per cent, Ronald Reagan was a recently-elected president. And he, older readers might recall, partly owed his election to inflation. He memorably said during his campaign: 'inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hitman.' But what of Britain? Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill gave a speech this morning in which he revealed that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) very nearly raised the bank’s base rate to 0.75 per cent this month rather than to 0.5 per cent — there was only one vote in it. Should this, along with the news from the US, make us suspect that rates are heading higher than we might previously have thought?

Look up this year’s performance of the shares and bonds which make up your pension fund and you will see that BP and Shell are the rare chinks of light. BP is up 15 per cent and Shell up 20 per cent, with both enjoying bumper profits on the back of high oil and gas prices. Cue, then, for Labour and the Lib Dems to demand a windfall tax in order to confiscate some of these profits. The money ought to be used, Eds Miliband and Davey have said this morning, to help people pay their heating bills. In both their minds ‘dividends’ and ‘shareholders’ are rude words – whereas in reality the people with a stake in BP and Shell are in many cases exactly the same people who are struggling to pay their heating bills.

The emergence of Covid provoked a worldwide economic crash. That lasted a mere four weeks. By the time western countries were locking down, a bull market had begun afresh. Through months of lockdowns, soaring case rates and death rates, shares were not just rebounding but marking new highs – firstly involving tech shares and online retailers which had done well from social distancing, but then pretty much anything. The arrival of the first vaccine phase 3 trial results in November 2020 sent shares spinning upwards, yet the emergence of the Alpha and Delta strains didn’t seem to do any harm. And now that economies seem finally to be putting Covid behind them? In Britain, plan B has ended. Denmark has ditched its Covid restrictions entirely.

There would have been times when the news ‘Bank of England doubles interest rates’ would have been met with a shudder. But when the move takes rates merely from 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent it hardly ranks as a shock at all. The days when the base rate reached 15 per cent seem as far away as ever. Rates remain far lower than was considered normal before the banking crash of 2008/09. Prior to that, rates had not been below two per cent in 300 years. So, no, the Bank of England is not responding aggressively to rising inflation.