Penworthy

With the modern-day racehorse increasingly bred for speed, it is likely that several of tomorrow’s runners at Epsom in the Betfred Derby (4 p.m.) will not truly stay the race distance of a mile and a half. The fact that this year’s contest is going to be run with plenty of cut in the ground means that, unless there is an unusually slow pace, it will take a proper three-year-old staying colt to win this prestigious Grade 1 race. After his 1-2-3 in the French Derby last weekend, Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien is the likeliest trainer to win tomorrow’s Classic with one of his four runners, but most realistically with either Benvenuto Cellini or Pierre Bonnard.

Trainer Ed Walker has long had a high opinion of CELANDINE so it was disappointing to see her miss the break on her seasonal debut in a listed race over six furlongs at Newmarket earlier this month. Given her tardy start, her run when fifth behind Flora of Bermuda showed she still has talent and there could be more to come this season as the horse, a former winner of the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York as a two-year-old, is still only four years old. Tomorrow Celandine will have her favourable fast ground conditions but it will be even more important that she gets away sharply as the listed Betway Achilles Stakes (Carlisle 2.33 p.m.) is over the minimum trip of five furlongs.

Newmarket-based Robert Cowell is known as the ‘sprint king’ for a reason: for many years he has been a masterful trainer of horses that race over the minimum trips of five furlongs and six furlongs. It was telling that in an interview for his Racing Post Weekender stable tour last week, he indicated he would rather train another winner of the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot – now the King Charles III Stakes – than the Epsom Derby. The King’s Stand is a race that he won in 2011 with Prohibit but it’s probably fair to say that every other trainer in the country would much prefer a Derby winner on their CV.

MORE THUNDER was one of last season’s most improved flat horses, starting off as a moderate handicapper officially rated at 87 and finishing up, after four victories, with a lofty rating of 117. At Newbury tomorrow, he steps up in distance to a mile for the first time when he is pitched into tough Grade 1 company in the Boyle Sports Lockinge Stakes (2.35 p.m.). Five of the ten runners in the contest have higher ratings than him and several of those at the top of the market also have the benefit of a prep run.

Tony Martin, the shrewd Irish trainer, loves to take aim at today’s Ladbrokes Chester Cup and its consolation race and I can see his three runners in the two races making their mark. Back Peaky Blinder 1 point each way at 8-1 with bet365, paying five places. ZANNDABAD has not won on the flat for three seasons but he is down to a nice mark of 91 in the Chester Cup (3.05 p.m.). He ran a huge race in this contest in 2024 when third to Zoffee after meeting trouble in running from his double-figure draw in stall 10. Today he is only marginally better drawn in stall 9 but we know he handles the track and the good ground, plus Clifford Lee is an interesting jockey booking too.

Trainer George Boughey is convinced that his horse Bow Echo has a big chance of landing tomorrow’s Betfred 2000 Guineas (Newmarket, 3.35 p.m.) after a ‘faultless’ preparation. This unbeaten three-year-old colt is a course and distance winner who is proven on fast ground so he is going to take a lot of beating in the first classic of the 2026 flat season. Irish handler Aidan O’ Brien’s only runner Gstaad is officially the highest-rated horse in the 15-runner field and, with Ryan Moore in the saddle, he also looks likely to run a big race in which the first prize for winning connections is nearly £300,000. Gstaad was heavily backed yesterday meaning he and Bow Echo are now vying for favouritism in this one-mile contest.

It is disappointing that Sandown’s big handicap chase tomorrow, the bet365 Gold Cup (3.30 p.m.), has attracted a field of only 14 runners but this is an intriguing race nonetheless with several improving seven-year-olds taking on some older, more experienced horses. LIVIN ON LUCO has run four times this season, three of them good performances The younger generation are well represented at the top of the market with seven-year-old geldings Havaila, Montregard, Ask Brewster and the Irish raider Road To Home all having big chances of landing the first prize of just under £100,000. My marginal preference is for two eight-year-olds from two in-form British yards.

The respective favourites have won this year’s Boyle Sports Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse and the Randox Grand National at Aintree, and that trend could well continue at Ayr tomorrow in the Coral Scottish Grand National (3.35 p.m.) The forecast favourite tomorrow is the Irish-trained raider Kim Roque, who comes here off the back of a big run at the Cheltenham Festival last month, with fourth in the Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup. However, odds of no bigger than 5-1 are skinny enough in this 21-runner contest for a first prize of more than £112,000. Last weekend’s marathon contest at Aintree proved that few chasers truly stay four miles or more. There were plenty of horses in with a chance two fences out who clearly did not last home.

The whole nature of the Randox Grand National (Aintree, tomorrow 4 p.m.) has changed significantly in recent years and it is not just about the fences becoming smaller and safer. A race that once favoured horses below 11 stone in the weights now favours the classier horses that are carrying more than 11 stone. Here are just two statistics that rather prove that point. In 2005, Hedgehunter became the first horse since Corbiere 22 years earlier to carry more than 11 stone to victory in this famous, marathon handicap chase. However, in the last two years of the race, since the maximum number of runners was reduced from 40 to 34, only one horse has finished in the first four with less than 11 stone.

Ever since MONBEG GENIUS finished a close third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival three years ago, it looked only a matter of time before he landed a big handicap. The form of that race could hardly have worked out better. The winner Corach Rambler, running off a rating of just 146 that day, went on to land the Randox Grand National a month later and was eventually rated at 162. The second horse from the Ultima in March 2023, Fastorslow, then running off a rating of 150, won the Ladbrokes Punchestown Gold Cup a month later, beating none other than Galopin Des Champs off level weights. Fastorslow was eventually rated 171. Yet Monbeg Genius, trained by Jonjo O’Neill and his son A.J.

The arrival of a new flat season is exciting but, for betting purposes, I prefer to stick to the jumps. On the flat in late March and April, it is so hard to know which trainers have their horses fit enough to do themselves justice and which do not. Since most handlers are still in the dark on their horses’ racecourse fitness, what chance do punters have? This weekend’s National Hunt fare is, in all honesty, modest so instead I will try to identify some value over the two big meetings that are on the horizon linked to the two Grand Nationals at Aintree and Fairyhouse. First up is a long shot for the Randox Topham Handicap Case on Friday, 10 April, a race run over the Grand National brush fences the day before the big race itself.

Trainer Ruth Jefferson is one of the many northern trainers supporting Kelso’s big fixture tomorrow, when the Scottish course hosts day two of the Racing Post Go North weekend.  Last year her talented mare, Lavida Adiva won the Ladbrokes-sponsored Mares’ Hurdle at the meeting. Since then, that horse has gone on to greater things, finishing second earlier this month in the Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.  Tomorrow Jefferson runs her eight-year-old gelding CAPTAIN BUTLER in the BetWright Handicap Hurdle (1.30 p.m.) and, although this horse will never be in the class of Lavida Adiva, he is no back number.

It’s surprising that champion jumps jockey Sean Bowen is still looking for his first winner at the Cheltenham Festival and so it would be fitting if he rode it for his former babysitter, trainer Rebecca Curtis, in today’s Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup (4 p.m.) The Grade 1 race over more than three miles and two furlongs is the highlight of the whole week, four days of superb racing which, however, continue to be blighted by problems at the start that have frustrated jockeys and many others besides. Hopefully, Bowen’s mount in the Gold Cup, Haiti Couleurs, put up each way at 14-1 two months ago, will get away at the front of the field and stay there. This nine-year-old gelding is a game front runner and a superb jumper so he is always going to be a difficult horse to pass.

Wiltshire trainer Emma Lavelle knows what it takes to land the Grade 1 Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle having won it seven years ago. Her pride and joy, Paisley Park, then aged seven, went off the 11-8 favourite in March 2019 having already won all four previous starts that season.  MA SHANTOU, also trained by Lavelle, has a similar profile to Paisley Park except he has won only three of his four starts this season, bombing out for no apparent reason at Haydock. However, the seven-year-old gelding clearly loves Cheltenham having won three times from three runs at the course this season.  Today’s Stayers Hurdle (3.20 p.m.

Irish maestro Willie Mullins runs a duo of talented two-mile chasers today in the BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (4 p.m.), the highlight of day two of the Cheltenham Festival.  However, both Majborough and Il Etait Temps have displayed jumping frailties and so neither appeals at their respective odds. The former will almost certainly win if he jumps as well as he did last time out when landing the Grade 1 Ladbrokes Dublin Chase at Leopardstown, but that is not guaranteed.

The decision by connections to run Lossiemouth in today’s Unibet Champion Hurdle (4 p.m.), rather than the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle on Thursday, is good for racing but not ideal for my two ante-post bets in the big race, the highlight of day one of the Cheltenham Festival.  Irish trainer Willie Mullins’ talented mare is unbeaten in her three visits to the Cheltenham Festival, winning a Triumph Hurdle and two Mares’ Hurdles. This will be her stiffest task to date as she is probably even better over two-and-a-half miles than today’s trip of just over two miles. However, she is still going to be very hard to beat today, especially with cheekpieces fitted for the first time.

Mondo Man and Wreckless Eric head the market for tomorrow’s big race at Sandown, the Betfair Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (2.27 p.m.), and a good case can be made for each of them landing the spoils. Mondo Man, trained by the father and son Moore team, is well handicapped over hurdles based on his flat form and, as a five-year-old gelding, his best days are surely ahead of him. However, odds of around 3-1 for a 22-runner handicap make zero appeal. Wreckless Eric, trained by the father and son O’Neill team, is well handicapped based on his run in this race a year ago when he was beaten only half a length by Go Dante, who will also be in the field tomorrow.

Kelso’s hurdles course is a specialist track – left-handed, sharp and undulating. Some horses handle it well, others do not. Cracking Rhapsody most definitely falls into the former category because tomorrow he will try to win the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle (2.55 p.m.) for the third year in a row. His form this season is modest but Ewan Whillans looks to have trained him to peak tomorrow and he can race off an official mark of just 4 lbs higher than his winning rating from last year. He has every chance of landing the hat-trick but he is likely to go off at around 5-1 favourite so he is not for me at those odds.

The last two winners of the Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Eider Handicap will try to win the race for a second time at Newcastle tomorrow (2:43 p.m.). Knockanore, who has showed little since his win twelve months ago, and Anglers Crag, who has switched stables since his win in 2024, both have strong chances of victory if running up to their best form. This marathon contest of nearly 4 miles 2 furlongs is not for the faint of heart although this year Newcastle seems to have missed the worst of the rain as the going is currently 'good to soft'. This race is often run on 'soft' or 'heavy' ground with the runners well strung on by the winning post.

There are at least three runners at Haydock tomorrow hoping to win the William Hill Half A Mill Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (3.15 p.m.) because victory would mean they have a much better chance of getting into the Randox Grand National on April 11. I am sweet on the chances of trainer Jamie Snowden’s LA CONQUIERE That’s because the weights for the big Aintree spectacular will be announced this coming week and the handicapper can assess all the runners on their performances up to and including tomorrow. An official rating of around 145 will almost certainly be needed in order to get into the 34-strong field.