Michael Simmons

Michael Simmons

Michael Simmons is The Spectator's economics editor. Contact him here.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

Reeves prepares the public for tax hikes

From our UK edition

11 min listen

It is three weeks until the Budget – and Rachel Reeves wants to get her narrative out there. The Chancellor held an early morning press conference today to, in her words, ‘set out the circumstances and the principles’ guiding her thinking on 26 November. Her speech followed a familiar pattern. First, there was the evisceration of the ‘austerity’, ‘reckless borrowing’ and ‘stop go of public investment’ which characterised the last 14 years. In her 25-minute speech in Downing Street, one line in particular stood out: ‘If we are to build the future of Britain together’, Reeves said, ‘we will all have to contribute to that effort. Each of us must do our bit.

Michael Simmons

Is Brexit to blame for Britain’s economic doom loop?

From our UK edition

22 min listen

Rachel Reeves is preparing for her first major Budget – but is Brexit really to blame for Britain’s black hole? Host Michael Simmons speaks to independent economist Julian Jessop about the OBR’s productivity downgrade, Labour’s tax plans, and whether Reeves is right to point the finger at Brexit.

Monday

Michael Simmons

Farage: trust me with the economy

From our UK edition

15 min listen

With Reform leading in the polls, Nigel Farage is determined to ensure that nothing can impede its growth. This morning he sought to bolster his credibility on an area that the Tories think could be his Achilles heel: the economy. Reform’s £90 billion programme of tax cuts promised at the last election has been constantly used as a stick with which to beat its leader. So today, Farage took to the stage in the City, to – once again – formally bury ‘Our Contract with You’ – the platform on which he was elected in July last year. This morning’s speech was all about Reform claiming the mantle of fiscal conservatism and claiming that the party can be trusted with the nation’s savings. Who will win the battle to be the party of fiscal credibility?

Friday

Michael Simmons

Andrew (Mountbatten Windsor) saves the Chancellor

From our UK edition

15 min listen

Happy All Hallows’ Eve, everyone – and there is something spooky going on with Rachel Reeves and a property in Dulwich. Yesterday she was leading the news after admitting to renting out her family home following the move into No. 11 without getting the required licence from Southwark Council. There are a number of mitigating circumstances – not least the fact that the lettings agent said they would obtain the licence – but the Prime Minister has been forced to put out a statement. He backs her, for now, but will he come to regret that? Listen for a rare defence of Rachel Reeves on this podcast from our economics editor.

Michael Simmons

Luke Coppen, Mary Wakefield, Daniel McCarthy, Michael Simmons & Hugh Thomson

From our UK edition

35 min listen

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Luke Coppen looks at a new musical subgenre of Roman Catholic black metal; Mary Wakefield celebrates cartoonist Michael Heath as he turns 90 – meaning he has drawn for the Spectator for 75 years; looking to Venezuela, Daniel McCarthy warns Trump about the perils of regime change; Michael Simmons bemoans how Britain is beholden to bad data; and, Hugh Thomson looks at celebrity terrorists as he reviews Jason Burke’s The Revolutionists. Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Thursday

Michael Simmons

The rich are leaving Britain – and making you poorer

From our UK edition

Are the rich fleeing Britain? That’s what the numbers suggest, but some activist groups have hit back saying that the data is dodgy. For the second episode of Reality Check, The Spectator’s economics editor Michael Simmons explains why the data shows that the wealthy are leaving Britain, and why this matters for everyone else.

Michael Simmons

What happened at the Parliamentarian of the Year Awards?

From our UK edition

17 min listen

There are a few sore heads at 22 Old Queen Street this morning because it was The Spectator’s Parliamentarian of the Year Awards last night. From Lucy Powell’s jibe at Morgan McSweeney (and Tim Shipman, for that matter) to Robert Jenrick’s jokes falling flat, it was an eventful evening of good-natured hazing, naval-gazing and – of course – recognising the best and worst of Westminster. Who came out on top? Oscar Edmondson debriefs with Tim Shipman, Michael Simmons and Natasha Feroze. Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.

Michael Simmons

Datageddon: Britain’s stats have become dangerously unreliable

From our UK edition

There were cheers in the Treasury last month as the nation’s statisticians discovered a spare £3 billion down the back of the sofa. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) admitted that VAT receipts had been under-reported by £1 billion last year and £2 billion this year. The newly found cash will go some way to filling the Chancellor’s £30 billion fiscal black hole, but not everyone was celebrating. Just 150 miles west along the M4, at the home of the ONS in Newport, Wales, the mood was grim. The embattled agency was splashed across the papers for the wrong reasons. This error was just the latest in a long line of data disasters. That’s because the quality of Britain’s official data, like much of British life, has deteriorated to the point of being dangerously unreliable.

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

Who will ‘take back control’ of the economy?

From our UK edition

14 min listen

Kemi Badenoch continues to look more confident at PMQs – although there are always going to be some easy goals when you lead on the economy. Today she pressed the Prime Minister on Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance – which he dodged – as well as repeating her offer to work with Labour towards a cross-party solution to the welfare problem. What do we know about the Budget at the end of next month? And are we any closer to understanding what a ‘working person’ actually is?  Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

Migration, the customs union & a £40bn black hole?

From our UK edition

14 min listen

There are reports that the OBR will downgrade Britain’s productivity growth forecasts, increasing the size of the black hole facing the Chancellor at the end of the month. This continues the spate of bad news for the Chancellor on the economy – but can we trust the figures? James Heale and Michael Simmons join Patrick Gibbons to talk about what this means ahead of the budget, whether anger over the money wasted on asylum hotels can be linked to the cost-of-living crisis and what Rachel Reeves is doing in Saudi Arabia this week. Plus: is a debate over the customs union really what Britain wants right now? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Sunday

Michael Simmons

Should Reeves raise income tax?

From our UK edition

Rachel Reeves is reportedly looking at a 2p increase in income tax. The hike to the basic rate – paid on earnings between £12,571 and £50,270  – would take it from 20 per cent to 22 per cent. That’s still quite low by historic standards, despite the overall tax burden heading towards record highs. But it would also mean a clear and significant breach of Labour’s manifesto commitment, made just 14 months ago, not to raise the big three taxes. Would it be enough to get the Chancellor out of her fiscal hole? The Institute for Fiscal Studies recently put the size of that hole – that needs to be filled to get back to the £10 billion of headroom Reeves left herself with in the Spring – at £22 billion.

Thursday

Michael Simmons

Arthur Laffer: Britain is taxing itself to death

From our UK edition

45 min listen

Reality Check, The Spectator’s new data-driven show hosted by economics editor Michael Simmons, kicks off with a big name: Arthur Laffer. The man who taught Reagan to cut taxes tells Michael why Britain’s economy is 'disappearing', why the Bank of England shouldn’t exist, and why he still believes low taxes – and a little optimism – can send Britain 'to the moon and the stars.

Michael Simmons

Introducing: Reality Check

From our UK edition

I’m delighted to announce the launch of my new podcast and newsletter Reality Check. In each episode I’ll cut through the spin and explain the numbers behind the noise. For the first installment I sat down with the American economist Arthur Laffer. ‘Course you would,’ is not the answer I expect when I ask tax-cutting American economist Arthur Laffer if he’d break manifesto promises and raise the big three taxes – income tax, national insurance and VAT – if he were in Rachel Reeves’s shoes. It’s an astonishing remark from the man who built his reputation preaching the gospel of low taxes.

Wednesday

Michael Simmons

Steady inflation gives Reeves some reprieve

From our UK edition

Prices are still rising fast. The Consumer Prices Index rose by 3.8 per cent in September – the same pace as in August but nearly double the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target. Markets, and the Bank itself, had expected inflation to reach 4 per cent, so the fact it has remained flat will come as a small relief to the Chancellor as she prepares for her November Budget. ‘Significantly,’ the ONS noted, food and drink inflation fell for the first time since March – down to 4.5 per cent from 5.1 per cent. Core inflation, which strips out volatile items, and services inflation both eased too. The Bank believes this is the peak of inflationary pressure, and if that proves true, it will be welcome news for everyone.

Tuesday

Michael Simmons

Britain’s doom loop continues

From our UK edition

11 min listen

Rachel Reeves is hosting an investment summit in Birmingham, trying to turn the narrative away from Britain's economic 'doom loop' ahead of next month's budget. But the harbinger of bad economic news Michael Simmons – who joins James Heale and Patrick Gibbons on the podcast – points to the news today of soaring government borrowing costs, and expected higher inflation figures tomorrow. Plus, what have some politicians made of further developments in the Prince Andrew scandal? Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Michael Simmons

Cuts are the only way out of Britain’s doom loop

From our UK edition

Britain continues to be consumed by debt. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that last month the state had to borrow £20.2 billion to stay afloat. That was £1.6bn more than in September last year and the highest September borrowing total for five years.  ‘Debt interest, the cost of providing public services, and benefits all increased compared with last year, more than offsetting from [taxes],’ the ONS said. This continuation of Britain’s fiscal doom loop led to us borrowing just shy of £100bn in the financial year so far, some £11.5bn more than the same six-month period in 2024 and the second highest April to September borrowing since records began 32 years ago. This cannot continue yet month after month it does.

gossip
Michael Simmons

Gossip is good for you… so I’m told

The late Pope Francis hated gossip. In his Christmas message to his Vatican advisors last year, he warned that it is “an evil that destroys social life.” It wasn’t the first time he’d attacked rumor-spreading. He once compared gossips to terrorists because “he or she throws a bomb and leaves.” His condemnations are of particular concern for me because I was recently accused of being a “notorious gossip.” I vehemently reject the charge, but if it were true, at least I’d be following a proud journalistic tradition. In fact, if it were not for gossip, this very magazine might not exist. The original Spectator’s founders, Joseph Addison and Richard Steele, filled the 1711 incarnation by hovering around coffee-houses, picking up gossip for stories.

Friday

Michael Simmons

Antisemitism, Chinese spies & GB’s economic fragility

From our UK edition

14 min listen

It's been a rough week for the government: the row over the collapsed Chinese spy trial has rolled on, all while the Chancellor has been trying to lay the groundwork ahead of next month's budget. Then, overnight, another issue has emerged as fans of the Maccabi Tel Aviv football team have been banned from attending a football game against Aston Villa next month, leading to accusations of antisemitism. Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons join James Heale to discuss the day's developments. Tim reveals how the Chinese spy row has been picked up by American legislators, threatening to undermine the Five Eyes security alliance. Meanwhile Michael points out that the news that the IMF has upgraded UK growth forecasts – to the second fastest growing of the G7 – might not be all it seems.

Thursday

Michael Simmons

Who’s to blame for Britain’s slowing economy?

From our UK edition

The economy is slowing down. GDP grew 0.3 per cent in the three months to August. As ever, services propped up Britain, growing by 0.4 per cent, while the production sector shrank by 0.3 per cent, according to Office for National Statistics data. We could have news of a stagnating economy confirmed just in time for Rachel Reeves’s Budget That growth over the last three months though was helped by a bumper June with the economy flat over the latest two months. If things don’t improve in the September data, then we could have news of a stagnating economy confirmed just in time for Rachel Reeves’s second Budget.

Friday

Michael Simmons

How Rachel Reeves can escape the doom loop

From our UK edition

Rachel Reeves is trapped in an economic ‘doom loop’: high debt, low growth and higher debt again. But, as pessimists’ eyes turn to the Chancellor’s Budget next month, there is a way she can turn that loop into a ‘virtuous circle’. The doom loop theory of Reeves’s economy has so far gone like this: Following a fiscal event, tax receipts come in lower than expected, growth forecasts are downgraded, inflation forecasts rise – and a fiscal ‘black hole’ emerges. To fill in the hole, the Chancellor hikes taxes because her backbenchers won’t let her make cuts. The tax hikes further hamper growth, weighing down employment as companies struggle under the burden. The Chancellor calls another fiscal event – and we return to step one.