Michael Simmons

A year ago, the Chancellor called her £38 billion tax rise a ‘one-and-done’ move. Now she looks set to rinse and repeat, with reports that a 2p increase in income tax is on the table. According to The Times, she has informed the Office for Budget Responsibility that a rise in personal taxation is one of the ‘major measures’ she will announce. This is the strongest signal yet that she will break Labour's manifesto pledge not to increase income tax rates. What does this mean for the Chancellor, and taxpayers? Elsewhere, David Lammy suffered a disastrous Deputy Prime Minister's Questions after dodging questions on whether there had been another prisoner let out by mistake.

With three weeks until the Budget, the main political parties have been setting out their economic thinking. Each faces the same bind: anaemic growth, fiscal constraints and uncomfortable exposure to the bond markets. The upshot is that there is less ‘clear blue water’ on the economy between Labour, the Conservatives and Reform. This has left a space for energy to emerge as the policy area in which to differentiate the parties in this new era of five-party politics. The Westminster energy consensus is over – Net Zero is not as popular as it once was – and the parties are setting out their stalls. Could energy win the next election? Oscar Edmondson speaks to James Heale and Michael Simmons.

It is three weeks until the Budget – and Rachel Reeves wants to get her narrative out there. The Chancellor held an early morning press conference today to, in her words, ‘set out the circumstances and the principles’ guiding her thinking on 26 November. Her speech followed a familiar pattern. First, there was the evisceration of the ‘austerity’, ‘reckless borrowing’ and ‘stop go of public investment’ which characterised the last 14 years. In her 25-minute speech in Downing Street, one line in particular stood out: ‘If we are to build the future of Britain together’, Reeves said, ‘we will all have to contribute to that effort. Each of us must do our bit.

With Reform leading in the polls, Nigel Farage is determined to ensure that nothing can impede its growth. This morning he sought to bolster his credibility on an area that the Tories think could be his Achilles heel: the economy. Reform’s £90 billion programme of tax cuts promised at the last election has been constantly used as a stick with which to beat its leader. So today, Farage took to the stage in the City, to – once again – formally bury ‘Our Contract with You’ – the platform on which he was elected in July last year. This morning’s speech was all about Reform claiming the mantle of fiscal conservatism and claiming that the party can be trusted with the nation’s savings. Who will win the battle to be the party of fiscal credibility?

Happy All Hallows’ Eve, everyone – and there is something spooky going on with Rachel Reeves and a property in Dulwich. Yesterday she was leading the news after admitting to renting out her family home following the move into No. 11 without getting the required licence from Southwark Council. There are a number of mitigating circumstances – not least the fact that the lettings agent said they would obtain the licence – but the Prime Minister has been forced to put out a statement. He backs her, for now, but will he come to regret that? Listen for a rare defence of Rachel Reeves on this podcast from our economics editor.

Kemi Badenoch continues to look more confident at PMQs – although there are always going to be some easy goals when you lead on the economy. Today she pressed the Prime Minister on Labour’s manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance – which he dodged – as well as repeating her offer to work with Labour towards a cross-party solution to the welfare problem. What do we know about the Budget at the end of next month? And are we any closer to understanding what a ‘working person’ actually is?  Lucy Dunn speaks to Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.