Michael Simmons

Before the first missiles landed in Tehran, Rachel Reeves was looking forward to today. Her spring ‘forecast’ statement was going to be a doddle. The plan – to have the smallest intervention by a Chancellor since Philip Hammond in the spring of 2018 – was a sensible one. Britain’s fragile economy could not have handled months of speculation about black holes, tax hikes and gilt yields. So, at the November Budget, the Chancellor made clear that there would be no scoring of her fiscal rules by the OBR this time round, no tax announcements and no major policy changes either. No rabbits inside hats or rats under rocks. The Treasury, this time, has succeeded. There has been barely any speculation in the run-up to today’s statement.

The Epstein files lift the curtain on how power is exercised and influence traded by our financial elite. It is not a cheering sight. Business and economic gurus like the former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers asking for dating advice from a convicted paedophile does not build confidence in the masters of the universe. Distasteful as these details are, the most telling insights into the predatory behaviour of the private-jet classes relate to how they exploit all of us, not just the vulnerable young women who catch their eye. Institutional logic does not explain Reeves’s love-in with the banks. They seem to have made a Faustian pact Peter Mandelson may blush at some of the personal details laid bare in his emails to Jeffrey Epstein.

With Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership in perpetual peril, it seems instructive to pay closer attention to his potential successors. On that, there have been two noteworthy interventions this week. The first from Ed Miliband who told the Today programme: ‘I tell you what angers Keir most about this country, it’s class. It’s the class divide.’ Not to be outdone, Andy Burnham then told a Resolution Foundation think-tank event that the focus of British politics needed to switch to lower earners. They present a Britain where capital exploits cheap labour, resulting in profound and widespread poverty. But that’s not the Britain we’re in Both men seem to want to focus on a country that does not exist.

Wes Streeting was bang on when he told Peter Mandelson the government had ‘no growth strategy at all’. The Health Secretary's claim seems to have been confirmed by figures, just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), which show Britain’s economy grew by just 0.1 per cent in the last three months of 2025. On a per capita basis the numbers were even worse: we're in recession. What is worrying given the make up of our economy is that there was no services growth at all, and construction contracted by 2.1 per cent. The only area of the economy that expanded (by 1.2 per cent) was production.

By the end of last week, it was clear the Prime Minister is a goner – the debate moved to the pace of his demise. That sped up yesterday with the resignation of Morgan McSweeney, his chief of staff. Starmer’s prospects looked very bleak indeed when I turned on the Today programme this morning to hear a defence of the PM being mounted by Baroness Smith of Malvern. I wouldn’t pretend to understand the government's communications strategy, but it doesn’t exactly scream confidence when the most senior spokesperson offered up for the morning media round is a junior skills minister from the Lords. A few hours later, the man in charge of that media strategy (and the fourth person to hold the job in 12 months), Tim Allan, jacked his job in and followed McSweeney out the door.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has just voted to hold interest rates at 3.75 per cent. While market expectations and pundit’s predictions overwhelmingly foresaw a hold, the vote came in slightly tighter than expected at five against four. The decision came alongside new forecasts from the Bank that predict inflation falling back to the 2 per cent target from April, in what will be a relief to the government and indeed the rest of us. In even better news for Rachel Reeves, in the Bank’s ‘Monetary Policy Report’, also released today, it gave the government some credit for ‘developments in energy prices including from Budget 2025’.

I want to congratulate the Department for Work and Pensions. They’ve made the excellent decision to – once again – refuse compensation to the Waspi women. The cohort of 3.6 million women born in the 1950s claim to have not been informed that their state pension age would rise – bringing it into line with the male retirement age. Their campaign group (Women Against State Pension Inequity) have led one of the most vocal but ridiculous campaigns in modern British history. Despite leaflets being individually written, information campaigns in doctors’ offices, and relentless TV and online adverts, the group claims that they were not adequately informed of the pension age change, and thus should be compensated from the pockets of the rest of us.