Matthew Lynn

Matthew Lynn is a financial columnist and author of ‘Bust: Greece, The Euro and The Sovereign Debt Crisis’ and ‘The Long Depression: The Slump of 2008 to 2031’

Javier Milei’s medicine is working

The economy would crash, the markets would be in open revolt, and he would swiftly be evicted from office by the IMF, and replaced by some ‘grown-ups’. When Argentina elected its chainsaw-wielding, libertarian President Javier Milei a year ago, the economic and political establishment confidently predicted he would only last a few weeks. And yet,

Labour’s clouded vision for the UK economy

The Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer is out in the Gulf, peddling infrastructure projects to Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman. His Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be in Brussels, pitching for a better relationship with the European Union. Meanwhile, the government has been pushing for closer ties with China, while also angling for a trade deal

A failing steel company is the last thing the state should buy

It could be backing the hottest start-ups in Artificial Intelligence. It could be nurturing space businesses, or flying taxis, or at least something with a functioning website. If the British government wants to put money into industry, there are lots of different options it could choose. But no. It turns out that it will back

Marine Le Pen’s reckless game with the French economy

The power probably feels good. And it may help her win the presidency eventually. Even so, there is a catch to Marine Le Pen’s decision to bring down Michel Barnier’s government in France, potentially as soon as tomorrow afternoon. If the government goes, the eurozone ay well go down with it. The financial plans of

Is France heading for a Greek-style crisis?

For the first time ever, France’s borrowing costs have risen above those of Greece. As of today, the bond markets have decided that French debt is a riskier bet than Greece, the country that 15 years ago almost crashed the entire euro-zone with its fiscal extravagance and irresponsibility. True, to some degree that reflects an

Trump’s tariffs threats are going to cause chaos

It turns out it wasn’t just China after all. Mexico, and indeed Canada, are just as much in the firing line. President-Elect Trump announced last night that he will impose an immediate 25 per cent tariff on imports from both of the US’s two largest land neighbours, threatening huge disruption to their economies. Trump may

Rachel Reeves deserves a rough ride at the CBI

Rachel Reeves was probably expecting to be cheered for restoring ‘stability’, for rebooting ‘growth’ and crafting a British version of Bidenomics to create ‘the industries of the future’. Instead, the Chancellor’s ‘fireside chat’ at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference today is likely to be rather uncomfortable. There probably won’t be any heckling, walk-outs,

The Trump Bitcoin bonanza has only just begun

One of the main trading platforms collapsed, and its founder ended up being sent to jail. Two years ago, in the wake of the failure of the FTX, it looked as if Bitcoin had finally been exposed as a flimsy bubble, with the price plunging to just $16,000 in the middle of November 2022. And

The EU is heading for fresh financial doom

If it came from Nigel Farage no one would be very surprised. Or from one of the band of German professors who launched the far-right AfD party. But the latest warning of a fresh crisis in the eurozone comes from a far more unexpected source: the European Central Bank (ECB). In its financial stability review

Britain should side with Trump over Europe

It may well be the biggest and most significant choice the Starmer administration will have to take. If Donald Trump decides to impose huge tariffs on China, potentially sparking a global trade war, the UK will have to decide whether it backs America, or tries to steer a softer path with the European Union. All

Andrew Bailey will regret reopening the Brexit debate

Business taxes are soaring. Employment rights have been massively extended, the trade unions are getting more powers, companies are too dependent on low-skilled immigrants, and the planning system still makes it impossible to build anything. There are plenty of challenges facing the British economy that the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey could

Labour is doomed if it is blamed for price rises

It emerged over the weekend that Tesco might have to start putting up prices. So, we have learned over the past few days, will Sainsbury’s, BT, and even JD Wetherspoons, a company that is usually committed to keeping prices as low as possible. One by one, many of the major consumer brands in the UK

Elon Musk’s support for Donald Trump is a masterstroke

Elon Musk contributed huge sums of money. He campaigned relentlessly. And his social media network X provided a platform for the candidate. Of all the architects of Donald Trump’s return to the White House this week, arguably none was more influential than Musk, and certainly none were playing for such high stakes. If he had

Why the market reaction to Trump 2.0 has been muted

Truth Social rocketed. Bitcoin soared in price. The dollar rose, and bond yields were up, while Chinese equities wobbled. Over the course of last night, as it became clear that Donald Trump had won the US presidential election, the markets responded to the news. The trouble is, no one really knows what Trump 2.0 means

The true cost of Labour’s Budget is impossible to calculate

No sombre music accompanied Rachel Reeves’s Budget, nor was there a reading from Corinthians. Yet, those details aside, one point is surely clear: Labour’s first Budget in 14 years was a requiem for entrepreneurial Britain. The four decades from the Thatcher reforms of the early 1980s, that turned the UK into one of the best

Volkswagen’s woes are no surprise

Where did it all go wrong for Volkswagen? The German carmaker is said to be planning to shut several factories and lay off thousands of staff. Workers who do keep their jobs could see their pay cut by as much as ten per cent, according to VW’s top employee representative, Daniela Cavallo. If the revelations

Has Rachel Reeves lost control of spending?

Some thought Rachel Reeves’s experience at the Bank of England meant she ‘knew how to run the economy’. She would keep an iron grip on budgets and demand value for money. The reliability of her management of the Treasury would unlock a wave of support from global finance. Ahead of the election, Reeves, along with

Let’s see if ‘Patriotic Millionaires’ really want more tax

Dubai, Italy or perhaps the Bahamas? Many multi-millionaires are discussing where they should flee to as the Rachel Reeves prepares to raid their bank accounts in the ‘Horror Budget’ scheduled for the end of this month. But not, as it turns out, Patriotic Millionaires, the group that campaigns tirelessly for higher taxes on the rich.