Matthew Lynn is a financial columnist and author of ‘Bust: Greece, The Euro and The Sovereign Debt Crisis’ and ‘The Long Depression: The Slump of 2008 to 2031’
A few jokes. A sprinkling of tax cuts. A few more jokes. A couple of flashy new buildings. And then back to the jokes. As Boris Johnson launches his pitch for the premiership – and takes a commanding lead among Tory MPs – it would be easy to dismiss his economic programme, along with the
The economy would tank. Trade would collapse. Unemployment would soar, and house prices would sink. In the run-up to the referendum, and in the three years of tortured negotiations about leaving since then, we heard lots of dire warnings about what would happen to the economy if we left the EU. And yet we heard
If it was in a playground in one of the rougher parts of town, which increasingly it resembles, this could easily escalate. One candidate remarks that he thinks the party should ‘f**k business’ so another one wades in to argue ‘f**k ‘f**k business’’. And perhaps by lunchtime some other candidate you have never really heard
Rising prosperity. Plenty of innovation. Tons of stuff in the shops, loads of jobs, and a openness to fresh talent and ideas. There are lots of things to like about free-market capitalism. But every system has its counter-example. And in the UK, it comes with two letters and a single word, usually in white and
It might be 30 per cent. It might be 35 per cent. It could even be 40 per cent or higher. Until the results of the European elections come in late on Sunday night, we won’t know what percentage of the vote Nigel Farage’s new Brexit party will get. But we do know that it
Factories would move abroad to escape punitive tariffs. The ports would be blocked up. The hospitals would run out of medicines and fruit would remain unpicked on trees. Over the last three years, we have become used to wildly over-the-top predictions about all the terrible things that would happen to the British economy if we
Almost half a million a year basic. A generous housing allowance. Lots of invitations to swanky conferences, and a fantastic office right in the centre of town. And all the last guy had to do during six years in the job was tweak interest rates three times. That works out at a million per move
The sunshine was glorious. There was a new episode of Game of Thrones to watch in the middle of the night, and everyone seems to have forgotten about Brexit for a while. As bank holiday weekends go, it was a pretty good one. Under a Labour government, however, it would have been even better. Instead
Maybe we will go for a Norway-Double Plus. Or A Canada-Minus. Or Common Market 2.0, or a WTO-Light, an EEA-Doubled, or an Enhanced EFTA or even a Singapore Sling or a White Russian. Okay, scratch those last two. I seem to have mixed up a list of options for leaving the European Union with a
It would only encourage irresponsible lending. Deficits would run out of control. The rules of the single currency would be undermined, and voters would lose faith in the euro. Over the last few years, the Germans, the European Central Bank, and the EU itself, have been adamant that banks shouldn’t be bailed out inside the
As Philip Hammond rose to the despatch box to deliver his Spring Statement, the Chancellor must have felt like someone who wanted to talk about the funny noise the radiator was making half-way through extra-time of England’s World Cup semi-final last summer. Everyone’s attention was understandably elsewhere. If he was feeling mischievous he could have
It is nothing if not bold. Battered by the gilets jaune movement, challenged by populists, and with a flat-lining economy that may soon be in a full-blown recession, France’s President Macron has proposed a huge extension of the EU’s powers for the 2020s. His plans include common border controls, an agency for defending democracy, and a
It would stop us crashing out. It would give us enough time to negotiate a free-trade deal. It would allow business time to prepare, and for the government to put in place all the extra infrastructure we might need once we are outside the European Union. As the deadline draws closer and closer, the pressure
Cripes. At this rate the CBI will be putting out reports on Brexit’s potential benefits, George Osborne will be reminding us he could always see its upside, and even the FT will be running leaders saying Brexit doesn’t quite mean the end of the world. There have been plenty of twists and turns in our
Cripes. At this rate the CBI will be putting out reports on Brexit’s potential benefits, George Osborne will be reminding us he could always see its upside, and even the FT will be running leaders saying Brexit doesn’t quite mean the end of the world. There have been plenty of twists and turns in our
It was one of the more memorable moments of the referendum campaign. In the midst of a fevered debate between Remainers and Leavers – and with the Treasury and its allies rolling out ever more lurid predictions by the day – Stuart Rose, the former Marks & Spencer chairman who was in charge of the
Even by his usual standards of self-satire, Jean-Claude Juncker was on top form to open the new year. As he uncorked his final bottle of wine for the year, the president of the European Commission found time to blast out a tweet celebrating the twentieth anniversary of the launch of the euro. It has, according
Even by his usual standards of self-satire, Jean-Claude Juncker was on top form to open the new year. As he uncorked his final bottle of wine for the year, the president of the European Commission found time to blast out a tweet celebrating the twentieth anniversary of the launch of the euro. It has, according
There will be chaos at the ports. Only the occasional root vegetable will be sold in the supermarkets. The factories and farms will run out of workers, and the planes will all be grounded on the runway. We have yet to get an official warning about how the black death will ravage the land, or
Parliament is deadlocked. The cabinet is split down the middle and Brussels won’t compromise on the deal it has already offered to the Prime Minister. As the clock ticks steadily towards March 29th, there seems little way out of the impasse surrounding our tortured exit from the European Union. No one can agree on how
