Lisa Haseldine

As the fallout from Keir Starmer’s defence funding row continues, Britain has been served a timely reminder of the importance of being prepared for a fresh escalation of tensions with Russia. A Russian warship, the Admiral Grigorovich, fired warning shots at an unarmed British civilian yacht in the Channel shortly before lunchtime yesterday. The circumstances around the incident – which took place 20 nautical miles off the Isle of Wight, outside British waters – remain somewhat unclear. The owners of the 40-foot British yacht, Jane and Alan Kelvey, claim they came no closer than 500 metres (0.3 miles) to the 409-foot Admiral Grigorovich. The Russian warship then sounded its horn a number of times before firing its guns, they said.

After a week of government paralysis, it appears something has finally broken the deadlock: John Healey has resigned as Defence Secretary. In a withering letter to Keir Starmer, Healey accused the Prime Minister of being ‘unable’ and the Treasury ‘unwilling to commit the resources that the nation needs to defend the country at this time of rising threats’. The Defence Investment Plan (DIP), he said, ‘falls well short’ of what Britain’s defences need. In his letter, Healey revealed that he was first given sight of the final DIP settlement on Monday, which revealed that support would be backloaded and rise to just 2.68 per cent of GDP in 2030. This falls well short of the 3 per cent by 2030 that Healey has been pushing Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves to commit to.

Earlier this week, Ukraine was subjected to one of the largest aerial assaults by Russia since the start of Vladimir Putin’s invasion over four years ago. Overnight from Monday into Tuesday, Russia sent 73 missiles and 656 drones into Ukraine, killing at least 21 and injuring dozens across the country. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, this strike was retaliation for a Ukrainian attack on a vocational school in the occupied region of Luhansk on 22 May. But, as the Kremlin’s war grinds on well into its fifth year, it also appears to signal a step change in how the Russian armed forces are choosing to fight.

Thanks to Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin could enjoy his Victory Day parade in Moscow safe in the knowledge that no Ukrainian drones would come hurtling onto Red Square while he was inspecting the Russian troops. Taking to Truth Social last night, the American president declared that he had requested that Moscow and Kyiv observe a three-day ceasefire, starting today and lasting until 11 March.  ‘This ceasefire will include a suspension of all kinetic activity, and also a prison swap of 1,000 prisoners from each country,’ Trump said. At the time of writing that truce is still holding, with both Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky stating that they would stick to the agreement.

With Donald Trump’s noisy war on Iran about to enter its third month, it can be easy to forget that another conflict is going on much closer to Britain’s shores. Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is creeping towards a grim milestone of its own: by the beginning of June, it will have gone on for longer than the First World War. Today, Navy chief Sir Gwyn Jenkins issued a timely reminder that the danger posed by Moscow extended far beyond eastern Europe. ‘Russia remains the gravest threat to our security,' he warned. Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank in London, Jenkins, First Sea Lord and Chief of the Naval Staff, revealed that incursions by Russian ships and submarines into British waters had jumped by almost a third in the last two years.

Could an agreement for Britain to join Europe’s defence fund ‘Security Action for Europe’ (Safe) be back on the cards? Speaking in Paris yesterday, European Council president Antonio Costa suggested as much. ‘It could take some weeks, ‌months, ⁠but for sure, we will achieve an agreement with the UK on the Safe issue,’ he said. Nato officials last month warned Starmer that uncertainty over Britain's defence spending and the speed of rearmament risked undermining the country’s status in the alliance Talks between Britain and the EU on joining the £130 billion scheme broke down last November when Brussels demanded the government hand over a £5 billion joining fee. France, reportedly, was the most hardline proponent of this ‘pay to play’ model at the time.