Katy Balls

New year, new start? Not for Labour. The party's 2017 has got off to a bad start with the publication of a sobering report on its election prospects for 2020. The Fabian Society predicts that Labour will win less than 20pc of the vote and just 150 seats (to put this into context, Labour has not won fewer than 200 seats since 1935). The thinktank concludes that the party's only real hope is to work with other 'progressive' forces, like the SNP and Greens. Now none of this is hugely surprising. Labour's poll ratings have been hitting new lows for some time now. But the Fabian Society is a Labour thinktank and its report is a sign that it is becoming a widely-accepted truth that the party is on a path to electoral disaster.

As details begin to emerge regarding the identities of those involved in the Berlin Christmas market attack which left at least 12 people dead, Nigel Farage has been quick off the mark to level the blame at Angela Merkel for her immigration policy. The former Ukip leader announced on Twitter that the 'terrible news' had come as 'no surprise' because 'events like these will be the Merkel legacy'. This has led to much outrage with Brendan Cox, the husband of the late Jo Cox, warning him against blaming politicians for the acts of extremists -- describing it as 'a slippery slope'. However, with a migrant -- who denies carrying out the attack -- now detained, Farage is not backing down.

As MPs begin to wind down for the holidays, Jeremy Corbyn appears to have other ideas when it comes to a quiet Christmas. The Labour leader has plunged himself into a fresh row with his party over his links to Sinn Féin. Corbyn has hired a former Sinn Féin member of staff to join his office in the new year. Jayne Fisher, previously head of Sinn Féin’s London office, has been appointed head of 'stakeholder engagement'. Announcing the news to MPs, Corbyn is said to have described her as 'very lovely'. Yet as 'lovely' as Fisher may be, this doesn't quite cut it as far as MPs are concerned. Many are worried that the move will remind voters of Corbyn's history of support for Sinn Féin and in turn damage the Labour party's image.

While Theresa May is adamant that her government will not give a running commentary on Brexit, David Davis talked relatively freely on the topic at the Exiting the European Union Committee. He said he would not negotiate control of immigration in Article 50 talks, and that the aim is to have access to the single market that's as close as possible to the UK's current position. However, MPs hoping to see May's much-anticipated Brexit plan will have to wait. Davis said this will not be published until February at the earliest, as a lot of research and policy work still needs to be done. He did, however, pave the way for a transitional Brexit deal.

Last night's Sleaford and North Hykeham by-election played out in a predictable fashion overall. After Stephen Phillips resigned in anguish over 'irreconcilable policy differences' regarding the government's Brexit stance, the Tories comfortably clung onto the seat -- with their candidate Caroline Johnson winning over 50 pc of the vote. It was a good result, too, for Ukip -- in an area where over 62 pc of voters backed Brexit in the referendum. After coming third there in the general election they won second place this time around. However, it will be encouraging to May that, despite this, Ukip's vote share did actually decrease marginally -- falling from 15.7 pc to 13.5 pc.

Chris Grayling has found himself in the naughty corner today over a leaked letter -- to the Evening Standard -- from 2013, which appears to show he opposed handing over control of suburban rail to keep it 'out of the clutches' of Labour. This is embarrassing -- at the very least -- for the Transport Secretary as just yesterday Grayling formally rejected Sadiq Khan’s bid to take over commuter routes. Giving the reason for the rejection, Grayling claimed the proposals amounted to 'deckchair shifting' with no real improvement for passengers. As Labour accused Grayling of putting party politics before the interests of commuters, Bob Neill -- the Conservative MP -- added himself to the voices of discontent.

Over the weekend, Boris Johnson managed to plunge himself into another Cabinet row by announcing on Peston on Sunday that he thinks students should be excluded from the net migration numbers -- because they are 'of massive benefit to this country'. As is becoming a pattern, No 10 were quick to slap him down -- with the Prime Minister's spokesman insisting at lobby that 'students will continue to be part of the figures'. Not that this stopped MPs having some fun with the comments today at Home Office questions. Andrew Tyrie kicked proceedings off by asking -- in a convoluted manner -- whether Rudd agreed that students should be removed from the tens of thousands target.

It's happened. Early this morning the Liberal Democrats managed to cause an upset and overturn Zac Goldsmith's 23,000 majority in the Richmond Park by-election. Sarah Olney, the winning Lib Dem candidate, won just under 50pc of the entire vote, with 20,510 votes to Goldsmith's 18,638 -- earning her a majority of 1,872. Since Goldsmith stepped down over Heathrow to stand as an independent, the Lib Dems have piled all their time and resources into winning back the seat, which they held until 2010. As the weeks have gone on, the party have grown increasingly confident about their chances -- releasing internal polling on Wednesday which predicted a narrow win, with one Lib Dem source describing the race as 'tighter than a duck's arse'.

David Davis put the cat among the pigeons in the chamber today. The Brexit secretary -- who takes a more relaxed approach to discussing Brexit than his tight-lipped boss -- talked at length as he was asked various questions on the government's Brexit position. The news line came after Labour’s Wayne David asked if the government would consider 'making any contribution in any shape or form for access to the single market' after Brexit. In response, David said the government would consider it: 'The major criterion here is that we get the best possible access for goods and services to the European market. And if that is included in what he’s talking about, then of course we will consider it.

Last week the Office for Budget Responsibility revised down its forecasts, suggesting the economy would only expand by 1.4pc in the next year -- and warning there would be a knock-on effect on the public finances. While the OBR's chairman Robert Chote put the gloomy predictions down to uncertainty from the Brexit vote, several Leave champions -- including Jacob Rees-Mogg and Michael Gove -- have since accuse the OBR of being on shaky ground. Today Chote was hauled before the Treasury Select Committee to defend the forecasts. While Chote joshed that there was every chance it could be proved wrong as 'that is the nature of forecasts', he struck a sombre tone as he warned of the potential fall out from Brexit.

In recent weeks, Theresa May has attempted to perform a balancing act between looking after the interests of 'just about managing' families and keeping big business on side. On becoming Prime Minister, she gave several speeches suggesting the need for a radical overhaul of the way businesses — and capitalism — work in order to help those left behind by globalisation. Yet May has had to soften her language to appease business leaders — backtracking, in a speech to the CBI, on a pledge to put workers on company boards. Today Greg Clark tried to set out what May's crackdown on corporate greed will actually entail.

Today Paul Nuttall has been appointed Ukip leader, winning over 62 pc of the vote. His election marks a new chapter for the party, after months of in-fighting and confusion since the Brexit vote. A popular figure in the party, many had hoped he would run in the first leadership election, that Diane James went on to win -- before quitting after just 18 days. Better late than never, Nuttall now has a good chance of uniting the party behind him. In his acceptance speech, Nuttall wasted no time in setting out his vision for Ukip post-Brexit. He said he hoped 'to replace the Labour party and make Ukip the patriotic voice of working people'. Behind closed doors, the Tories are breathing a collective sigh of relief. As one said to me, 'that speech was entirely aimed at Labour.

Today Emily Thornberry appeared on the Andrew Marr show to talk left-wing dictators and Brexit. Following in the footsteps of Jeremy Corbyn, the shadow foreign secretary praised the late Fidel Castro. She spoke fondly of what he had done for Cuba's national health service -- but conceded such benefits 'came at a price'. However, the comments most likely to land her in hot water come tomorrow related to Brexit. Ever since the referendum result, Labour have struggled to come up with a coherent position on leaving the EU. While Corbyn previously suggested his party would block Article 50 if single market membership was not a part of the deal, Tom Watson — Labour’s deputy leader — has insisted his party will not ‘hold this up’.