Katy Balls

Parliament is in deadlock over Brexit. So what can we expect in the coming days and weeks after the vote? These are the scenarios currently being war-gamed. May’s deal passes A political shock: Theresa May squeaks over the line after convincing Brexiteers that it was her deal or no Brexit — and Remainers that it was her deal or a no-deal Brexit. The DUP then rains on May’s parade. Seething over the backstop, it declares that the confidence and supply agreement is over for good. This scenario could involve delaying the initial vote in the hope this gives MPs time to come around. It passes on a second vote Theresa May’s deal fails to pass first time round by 50 votes.

After Theresa May's government made history on Tuesday with three successive Commons defeats – including the first contempt of Parliament defeat since the 1970s – ministers were given no respite with a Brexit debate that ran on until 1am. The Prime Minister's address to start that session was overshadowed somewhat by the various Commons clashes along with the news of Dominic Grieve's Brexit amendment passing (see Isabel for what it means for the government's plans here).  But the statement is important to note as it appeared to mark a change in tone. May adopted a frank manner – and told MPs of the difficulties and sacrifices she had made to get to this point: 'I have spent nearly two years negotiating this deal. I have lost valued colleagues along the way.

After numerous last ditch efforts to dig themselves out of this hole, the government has found itself in contempt of Parliament over its refusal to publish the Attorney General's legal advice in full. The DUP joined forces with Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP to vote for a motion which finds ministers in contempt over the government's refusal to share the legal advice in full – at 311 to 293. The government has now said it will publish the legal verdict (expect some horrors). If they fail to comply, then a minister could face suspension . However, the part of this whole debacle that should worry No.10 the most is not the impending publication of legal advice.

What does it take to boost Tory morale these days? Oddly enough, the answer appears to be an hour-long session on troubling legal advice. With an Opposition Day debate leading to a demand for Theresa May to publish the EU withdrawal bill legal advice in full, the Prime Minister attempted to satisfy angry MPs by sending her Attorney General Geoffrey Cox to answer questions on the legal implications of the proposed Brexit deal. The Brexiteer – who drew comparisons to the Lion King's Mufasa with his barnstorming conference speech – told MPs that while the government was disinclined to publish the advice in full, his presence ought to go some way to satisfying them given that an attorney general has only appeared in this way in Parliament a handful of times in the last 50 years.

Here we go again. After a relatively quiet week on the resignation front for Theresa May’s shaky government, Sam Gyimah has announced that he has left his role as Universities and Science Minister. Gymiah puts his decision down to concluding that he could not vote for the EU Withdrawal agreement. He tells the Telegraph: ‘Britain will end up worse off, transformed from rule makers into rule takers. It is a democratic deficit and a loss of sovereignty the public will rightly never accept.’ Notably Gyimah does not rule out supporting a ‘People’s Vote’ on the final deal: ‘We shouldn’t dismiss out of hand the idea of asking the people again what future they want, as we all now have a better understanding of the potential paths before us.

Theresa May has two weeks to sell her deal to MPs ahead of the meaningful vote on Tuesday 11 December. The fact that Philip Hammond used an interview this morning meant for selling the deal to state that at present there was no consensus in favour of it tells you everything you need to know about how that is going. There are gloomy estimates that the government could lose the vote by as much as 200 – that seems steep but a defeat around the 100 mark is beginning to seem likely. So, how does No.10 plan to turn things around? There's a special Brexit grid which will see a topic focus for each day – economy, security, trade – in the build up. Perhaps the most striking part of the Downing Street campaign is the mooted TV debate. No.

When Theresa May stood up at the CBI conference earlier this month and declared that under the new Brexit immigration system, EU nationals would no longer be able to 'jump the queue', she met a hostile reaction. The rhetoric led to fellow leaders, MPs and voters going on the offensive over the comments. Today Theresa May took the opportunity to apologise for that comment. Asked in the Chamber by the SNP’s Philippa Whitford whether she wished to apologise for insulting EU nationals like Whitford's husband, a German national and a doctor, who have contributed to society and made a home here, May said she should not have used that phrase: 'I should not have used that language in that speech'.

After resigning as Brexit Secretary over Theresa May’s proposed deal, Dominic Raab has restyled himself as one of the more loyal of the Brexiteer rebels. He used an appearance on the Andrew Marr show over the weekend to say that although he would note vote for the deal as it currently stands, he still backed Theresa May as Prime Minister and would vote for her in any confidence vote. This morning he is upped the ante, however, with an interview on the Today programme. Discussing both the withdrawal agreement and the future framework (which was set out on Thursday), Raab was frank in his assessment. The Tory Brexiteer said he would prefer EU membership to what’s currently on the table.

In her first interview since returning to the cabinet, Amber Rudd has set the cat among the pigeons. Speaking on the Today programme this morning, the new Work and Pensions Secretary appeared to go off script as she talked about the prospect of a 'no deal' Brexit. The former Remain campaigner said that Parliament 'will stop No Deal' if the deal is voted down as there 'isn’t a majority in the House of Commons to allow that to take place'. 'I don't think we are looking at another referendum. I think what will happen is that people will take a careful look over the abyss and despite what people say the EU withdrawal agreement will get through.' On the surface at least, it doesn't appear to be a particularly helpful intervention.

Although Theresa May looks set to avoid a confidence vote for the time being, tonight's Finance Bill votes could serve to undermine her authority further. Government whips have spent the day frantically trying to persuade swing MPs to vote with the government against a series of amendments. Those efforts have been rather fruitless in some respects – with the government already forced to concede on the Jo Johnson backed amendment calling for the Treasury to publish a comparison of the impact of the Brexit deal with the impact of Britain’s existing terms with the EU. Adding to May's woes is the fact the DUP have abstained on most of the votes.

Thirty-two hours after Dominic Raab resigned as Brexit Secretary, Theresa May has managed to find a Brexiteer who is willing to take on the troubled brief. Steve Barclay – the MP for North East Cambridgeshire – is the new Brexit Secretary. He has been promoted from minister of state at the Department of Health and Social Care. It's certainly quite a leap and Barclay is the most low profile MP to take on the brief yet. However, the scope of the job has also been reduced. Barclay's role is to concentrate on domestic preparedness rather than the final stages of the EU negotiation. The expectation is that that part of the negotiations will be led by Theresa May with the help of her top sherpa Olly Robbins.

Today's PMQs ought to have been the calm before the storm. With Theresa May unable to reveal details of the proposed Brexit deal to MPs until her Cabinet signs it off – with a crunch meeting at 2pm – the specifics are not known. However, thanks to a series of leaks from the Brussels side and the European Research Group quickly seeing red it proved to be rather tense affair. As ever, Jeremy Corbyn failed to land a killer blow on the Prime Minister despite the rather wide goal posts. The SNP's Westminster leader Ian Blackford had one of his more effective outings – using one question to ask why Scotland won't get the same benefits as Northern Ireland when it comes to single market access.