Katy Balls

At a dinner in the Irish embassy in London last November, Dominic Raab believed he was on the brink of a Brexit breakthrough. In a meeting with Simon Coveney, Ireland’s Minister for Foreign Affairs, the Brexit secretary sought to find a compromise on the issue of the backstop. He explained that parliament would never agree an open-ended pledge in the way the EU envisaged: pushing things too far would end in the failure of talks. But Britain could make separate guarantees on the border, he said, leading to a ‘win, win’ for both sides. Coveney seemed interested, and suggested he would consider it. Just days later, the idea was dropped by Leo Varadkar, the Taoiseach. But why?

The Conservative leadership contest doesn't officially commence until June but that hasn't stopped the various contenders parading their credentials. With ten candidates now declared, the expectation is that this number will rise to at least fifteen before the nomination period starts. Jeremy Hunt is seen as one of the favourites and has today set the news agenda with an article for the Telegraph in which he suggests pursuing a no deal Brexit amounts to 'political suicide' – as it would mean going into a general election before Brexit had been delivered (as – he says – Parliament would block it): 'Attacked by the Brexit Party on the Right and the Liberal Democrats on the Left, we will face extinction.

The Brexit party has emerged as the big winner of the European elections. Nigel Farage's party, formed just six weeks ago, surged to victory – winning 32pc of the votes and getting 29 of its candidates elected as MEPs. Only Merkel's CDU has as many MEPs: they're joint first. Unsurprisingly, Farage has been on a victory tour since the result came in. In his victory speech in Southampton, Farage said his new party's success ought to be a 'big wake up call to Westminster' – and reiterated his demand for his MEPs to be including in the government's Brexit negotiating team: 'We voted to leave in a referendum and we voted to do so on March 29th and we haven’t.

The EU election results are in and it's bad news for both of the main parties. Labour and the Tories have lost support while the pro-EU Liberal Democrats and Green Party have made significant gains. However, the big winner is the Brexit Party. Ahead of the vote, Nigel Farage's new outfit was predicted to win the largest vote share and they have managed to do just that. The Brexit party has come first and the Lib Dems second. The Brexit Party won 28 MEPs with 32% of the vote share. The party had an impressive showing in the Midlands as well as East of England where they have had three MEPs elected – including Farage allies Richard Tice and Michael Heaver. In Scotland, the Brexit party came in second after the SNP.

After Theresa May announced that she will step down on Friday 7 June as the leader of the Conservative party, the race to find her successor is due to officially commence the following Monday. Conservative party chairman Brandon Lewis, along with the vice-chairs of the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers,  have issued a joint statement laying out the process for this contest. Notably 1922 chair Graham Brady's name is missing from the statement – leading to speculation he has recused himself on the grounds that the Tory backbencher may run himself. Under the new timetable, nominations will close in the week commencing 10 June. Then there will be 'successive rounds of voting' which will keep going until a final choice of two candidates remain.

‘Labour are in so much trouble here you can’t even believe it,’ says Nigel Farage as we sit in a parked blue bus in Dudley in the pouring rain. Outside, a group of campaigners in anoraks wave Brexit party banners and sing ‘Bye bye EU’ to the tune of ‘Auld Lang Syne’. A mix of locals and supporters from out of town have assembled to hear Farage. A Japanese camera crew rush to film the circus around him. Reporters from New York are following the pack. Keeping up with Farage is exhausting. When Farage was last in Dudley, the town went on to vote overwhelmingly to Leave, by 67 per cent. Back then, he tells those assembled, the sun was shining. The change in weather, he says, reflects the change in our politics.

After the 1922 executive of Conservative backbenchers decided this evening to wait until Friday to speak to the Prime Minister about announcing an exit date, there had been a view that Theresa May was safe in her position – at least for 36 hours. That is now in doubt. Andrea Leadsom has tonight announced her resignation as Leader of the House. In her resignation letter, the Brexiteer minister says that she has made the decision to leave government due to concerns over May's position on Brexit. Of the deal as it now stands, Leadsom says she is concerned that May's latest pitch means the government is 'facilitating' a second referendum and says there has been a 'breakdown' in the way the government approves Brexit policy: https://twitter.

Theresa May has this afternoon had one last roll of the dice in the Brexit saga. In a speech entitled 'New Brexit Deal', the Prime Minister threw the kitchen sink at passing her deal on a fourth vote. With May expected to step down if her deal is rejected again after recess, she made an appeal to MPs to get behind a Brexit deal.

As Theresa May promises to bring her Withdrawal Agreement back next month for a fourth vote, few in Government believe it has much – if any – hope of passing. However, May's decision to announce its return has increased speculation that she will be forced to stand down next month – whether her deal passes or not. When that time comes, the contest to find her successor will begin. Cabinet ministers have been minded to put off that contest for as long as possible, in part due to the fact that a Brexiteer like Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab is likely to fare best if the contest occurs before the UK has left the EU. As I say in today's i paper, the success of the Brexit Party has only enhanced that view in recent weeks.

After weeks of cross party talks between the Conservatives and Labour, Downing Street have finally announced that Theresa May's beleaguered Brexit deal will once again be put to a vote. A No. 10 spokesman said: 'This evening the Prime Minister met the Leader of the Opposition in the House of Commons to make clear our determination to bring the talks to a conclusion and deliver on the referendum result to leave the EU. We will therefore be bringing forward the Withdrawal Agreement Bill in the week beginning the 3rd June. It is imperative we do so then if the UK is to leave the EU before the summer Parliamentary recess. Talks this evening between the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition were both useful and constructive.

With Theresa May's departure expected later this year, the race is underway among her Tory colleagues to position themselves as her likely successor. The weekend papers were filled with ministers at pains to prove their credentials – with Liz Truss calling for one million homes to be built on the green belt and Matt Hancock and Amber Rudd sparking rumours of a double ticket after they penned an article calling for a 'modern, compassionate Conservative party'. On Monday evening Jeremy Hunt appeared to show some ankle of his own with a speech to the Lord Mayor's Banquet. Discussing Britain's place in the world, the Foreign Secretary said the UK is held in 'far higher respect abroad than we sometimes have for ourselves at home'.

The weekend papers are filled with grim poll predictions for the Conservative party – and good news for Nigel Farage's Brexit party. An Opinium poll suggests that the Brexit party will win a larger share of the vote in the European elections than the Tory party and Labour combined. With regards to a general election, the Telegraph has published a poll which says the Brexit Party has also overtaken the Conservatives in Westminster voting intention for the first time – and predicts that the party would win 49 seats in a general election now.  Building on that momentum, Farage appeared on the Andrew Marr sofa this morning to lay out his party's pitch ahead of the vote later this month.

After a disappointing local election result for Labour last week, politicians were quick to blame the party's Brexit ambiguity for the net loss they suffered. Labour councillors in Sunderland and Barnsley said talk of a second referendum had been unhelpful on the doorstep. Meanwhile, MPs including Jess Phillips suggested that a clearer call for a so-called People's Vote would boost support for the party. Downing Street hoped they could capitalise on the party's Brexit worries by convincing the Labour frontbench to back some form of Brexit deal in order to bring the matter to a close. However, the view in Labour a week on is rather different.

Is this the week the Prime Minister sets an exit date? Not if Theresa May has anything to do with it. May has been under pressure to set out a more specific timetable for her departure – regardless of whether or not she manages to pass a Brexit deal. The 1922 committee of Tory backbenchers last month decided not to change the rules to allow another confidence vote in May before December. However, after a very bad local election result and frustration over the Brexit process, the committee are meeting once again this afternoon where they will revisit the matter. There was talk that committee chair Graham Brady had told May to reveal a 'roadmap' for her departure ahead of the meeting – or be given one. However, May has done no such thing.