Katy Balls

With five candidates surviving Tuesday's ballot, the surprise result was Rory Stewart. The wildcard entry won 37 votes – with Sajid Javid behind on 33 votes. It follows that when it comes to who is most likely to be knocked out in this afternoon's ballot, it's the Home Secretary who ought to be the most vulnerable. However, Stewart is not home and dry. Although the DfID Secretary has been building momentum of late, he had a challenging appearance in the BBC debate – admitting after that it wasn't his preferred format. His Cabinet candidate rivals also turned on him at points – with both Michael Gove and Sajid Javid directly challenging him. Multiple messages from the Stewart camp to MPs soon after the second ballot have added to a sense of unease about his campaign.

The results of the second ballot are in and it's Dominic Raab who has been knocked out of the race. Boris Johnson cemented his lead going from 114 votes to 126. Brexiteer Raab meanwhile failed to win the 33 votes required – only mustering 30. As for the Cabinet candidates, there is still little difference in support between the top candidates. Rory Stewart managed the largest increase going from 19 votes in the first round to 37: Michal Gove: 41 Jeremy Hunt: 46 Sajid Javid: 33 Boris Johnson: 126 Dominic Raab: 30 Rory Stewart: 37 So, what does the result mean for the overall contest? Johnson continues to look unassailable.

Is Boris Johnson’s route to No. 10 now unstoppable? The former foreign secretary has more MPs backing him than any other candidate and over the weekend bagged the support of two leadership dropouts - Esther McVey and Matt Hancock. Hancock’s support for Johnson is the most surprising - just a week or so ago the Health Secretary used an interview with the Financial Times to take a swipe at Johnson by declaring ‘f—- “f—- business”’ in response to his infamous ‘f—- business’ comment. It follows that many are reading Hancock’s endorsement as a sign that even Johnson’s critics have come around to the former mayor of London. However, not everyone in the Tory party agrees.

The first televised Tory leadership debate drew as much attention for who wasn't there as who was. After Boris Johnson decided to avoid the Channel 4 leadership debate on the grounds that voters had had enough blue-on-blue action (and perhaps also that as the Tory leadership frontrunner he has little to gain and much to lose from such an event), the broadcaster decided to effectively empty-chair him – putting up a lectern where he would have been. It then fell to Johnson's leadership rivals Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid, Dominic Raab, Rory Stewart and Michael Gove to provide the substance of the 90-minute programme. It kicked off with enough blue-on-blue attacks for the Johnson campaign to have some cover over their decision to give it a miss.

Boris Johnson has today confirmed his place as the frontrunner to be the next prime minister. In the first voting round of the Tory leadership contest, the former foreign secretary romped home with 114 votes from MPs. This means that Johnson has already surpassed the magic number of 105 votes – which means a candidate will come at least second and thereby has a place in the final two. To put the vote into perspective, Johnson won more votes than Jeremy Hunt, Michael Gove and Dominic Raab combined. However, the Boris Johnson camp aren't cracking out the champagne just yet. Boris allies are keen to press that there is still a lot of time to go in the contest – with more rounds next week. The message?

It was the launch event everyone was waiting for. After weeks of keeping a low profile – a submarine campaign according to critics – with just one newspaper interview, the leadership frontrunner Boris Johnson emerged this morning to officially kickstart his campaign. However, rather than opt for a circus tent, waffle freebies and thinly-veiled attacks at colleagues like some of his rivals, Johnson's event at Carlton Gardens proved rather tame. The former mayor of London was introduced by a new Cabinet supporter – Geoffrey Cox.

On Thursday, MPs will have their first chance to vote in the secret ballot for their pick for the next leader of the Conservative party. At the moment, the consensus in the Parliamentary party is that the most likely pair to make the final two are Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt – after Michael Gove's campaign received a setback at the weekend when he admitted to previous drug use. But what about Sajid Javid? The Home Secretary had been touted as a good bet ahead of the contest commencing. However, Javid has at times struggled to make an impression – and have his message cut through – in what has turned out to be a very crowded leadership race.

After receiving a boost over his Cabinet rivals at the weekend with the endorsement of Amber Rudd, Jeremy Hunt has today used his official launch to unveil support from a senior Brexiteer. Penny Mordaunt has come out in support of the Foreign Secretary. Speaking at the launch in Westminster, the Defence Secretary said she trusted Hunt to deliver Brexit. Her endorsement is a coup for the Hunt campaign as it shows that he has support from a senior Brexiteer. Mordaunt's endorsement is more significant in many respects than Rudd's. This is because what Hunt's campaign has been lacking is support from Brexiteers – his support is largely from MPs who voted Remain in the EU referendum.

Which two candidates will make the final two of the Tory leadership contest? At the moment, the race is Boris Johnson's to lose with the former foreign secretary on course to make it to the membership ballot. However, the contest for the other place is tight.  The make up of the Parliamentary party means there will be likely be only one no-deal Brexiteer candidate in the final two – with the other spot going to a Cabinet candidate. As of Friday, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt were the two candidates with the most nominations after Johnson – with Sajid Javid trailing behind. This weekend, however, has seen several developments which could mix things up in the coming days – before MPs vote on Thursday in the first round of the contest.

Will Rory Stewart still be in the Tory leadership race come Tuesday? The International Development Secretary is seen as the wildcard of the contest. Regarding at first as having little to no chance of becoming leader owing to his pro-deal position, the undeterred Tory MP has ran a rather creative campaign going on various walks and meet and greets with members of the public in a bid to convince members of Parliament to get behind his leadership bid. His efforts have garnered a lot of attention and endorsements from unlikely places. The problem is very few of those endorsements are coming from the Conservative parliamentary party that decides who makes it through the rounds – before the membership selecting from the final two.

To prorogue or not to prorogue? That’s the question dividing the Brexiteer candidates today following the One Nation conservative hustings. After Boris Johnson, Andrea Leadsom and Sajid Javid on Tuesday all ruled out proroguing Parliament in order to achieve a no deal Brexit in the event that MPs tried to block one, Dominic Raab used his appearance on Wednesday night to tell a group of MPs that he would not rule out suspending Parliament to bring about the UK's exit from the EU – with or without a deal. Proroguing Parliament is what happens at the end of every parliamentary session.

What is a one nation Tory? On Tuesday evening, various leadership contenders descended to the committee room corridor to try and convince MPs that they could be described as one. Earlier this year, the One Nation Tory caucus was launched – led by Amber Rudd and Nicky Morgan – and was reported to be aimed at keeping the Tories in the centre rather than lurching to the right in a leadership contest.The party has since declared a list of its core values – which range from protecting the union to the environment and free enterprise. The view that they have garnered the most attention for, however, is their opposition to a no deal Brexit.

The Tory leadership race officially starts next week when nominations close for the first stage of the contest. Until then, each campaign is doing their bit to show they are not falling behind. Today the Boris Johnson campaign have stepped up a gear with the release of their campaign video. It comes after a series of mixed videos from contenders so far. Dominic Raab was mocked for a decisive head turn, Sajid Javid for using his Parliamentary office and Jeremy Hunt for mispronouncing Culloden. Boris Johnson's has tread a different path. In his campaign video, the former Mayor of London is seen out of Westminster meeting with ordinary voters. The idea behind it was to show that there is grassroots support for Johnson.