Kate Andrews is deputy editor of The Spectator’s World edition.
11 min listen
The IMF has upgraded the 2024 economic forecast for the UK. What does this mean for the Government and could more good news follow this week? And, with speeches on tax, benefit crackdowns and tackling anti-semitism, what should we make of all this political activity? Will we see the return of ‘the hot lectern guy’?
Today the International Monetary Fund has upgraded its growth forecasts for the UK: from 0.5 per cent this year to 0.7 per cent, followed by a 1.5 per cent rise in 2025 (unchanged from its previous update). These forecasts still sit slightly below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s most recent predictions – but only just.
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The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed this morning that the UK confined its technical recession to 2023. The economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the first three months of the year, thanks in large part to stronger-than-expected growth in March, which reached 0.4 per cent. But is the plan really working? Also on
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirmed this morning that the UK confined its technical recession to 2023. The economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the first three months of the year, thanks in large part to stronger-than-expected growth in March, which reached 0.4 per cent. Both numbers were larger than expected (the consensus was for
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has voted to hold interest rates for the sixth time in a row. Members of the MPC voted 7 – 2 to maintain the base rate at 5.25 per cent – with two members voting to cut rates by 0.25 percentage points. This decision will come as no surprise to
It’s all but certain that the UK’s exit from recession will be confirmed at the end of this week. Preliminary Q1 data, released on Friday, is expected to how slow and steady growth in the first three months of the year. It is also very likely that inflation will return to the government target of
The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development’s (OECD) latest report, published this morning, downgrades Britain’s growth prospects this year: from 0.7 per cent (forecast in November last year) to 0.4 per cent. Based on the OECD’s Economic Outlook, Britain and Germany risk experiencing the least growth amongst advanced economies, with Germany coming last this year
When Joseph Stiglitz talks, the left listens. The Nobel laureate has advised multiple Democratic presidents and the World Bank, where he worked as chief economist and senior vice president. He’s long been a leading critic of the liberal leanings that have dominated the West’s economic policy for four decades. So when we meet in The
Labour’s plan to renationalise the railways is not much of a plan at all. Rather, it is a list of goals: to eliminate ‘fragmentation, waste, bureaucracy’, to ‘bring down costs for taxpayers’ and to ‘drive-up standards for passengers’. All lofty ambitions, all lacking a strategy. What little detail we do have points to significantly more
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After eight hours of debate on the Rwanda Bill, peers finally threw in the towel shortly after midnight. And with that, the Rwanda Bill became law, pending Royal Assent from the King. The two chambers have been engaged in a mammoth game of ping-pong for the past week, culminating in yesterday’s showdown on two final
Alongside the Prime Minister’s speech on welfare today, the Department for Work and Pensions quietly released updated forecasts. The numbers are stark: DWP expects there to be 3.96 million working-age claimants by 2028-29, a rise from 2.8 million in 2023-24. Meanwhile the number of working-age people receiving disability benefits is forecast to rise to 1.16
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This week: the usual targets First: Trump is on trial again – and America is bored rather than scandalised. This is his 91st criminal charge and his supporters see this as politicised prosecution. As an American, Kate Andrews has seen how the law can be used as a political weapon – so why, she asks,
At the start of January, Donald Trump offered up a cheery new year message for Americans. ‘If I don’t get immunity, then Crooked Joe Biden doesn’t get immunity,’ the former president declared on his social media platform Truth Social. With this, he touched on a looming question about 2024: will the presidential race be decided
It seems political consensus isn’t dead. It’s simply been hibernating, waiting for a kind of crackdown on personal liberty that is so popular that it brings everyone together. That moment came this evening, when MPs voted on the second reading of the government’s Tobacco and Vapes Bill, which will not only ban whatever flavoured vapes
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It’s not just Britain that has a growth problem. Today’s release of the IMF’s April 2024 World Economic Outlook report argues that the global economy is following the lacklustre trend. Within this bleak picture, how does the UK look compared to its counterparts? Also on the podcast, MPs are set to vote this evening on the government’s
It’s not just Britain that has a growth problem. Today’s release of the IMF’s April 2024 World Economic Outlook report argues that the global economy is following the lacklustre trend. Global growth is expected to sit at 3.1 per cent by 2029: ‘at its lowest in decades’. Global growth is forecast to move at the same pace
The economy grew by 0.1 per cent in February: not much to celebrate on its own but the small uptick in GDP all but confirms that the UK is leaving its recession in 2023. February wasn’t a booming month: services output only grew by 0.1 per cent, with transportation and storage services contributing the most
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One of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s five promises is to cut NHS waiting lists. However, even he’s admitted progress is slow, with new data showing key targets on waiting lists have been missed. Can Sunak ever solve the NHS problem? Elsewhere, Lee Anderson has been telling us about the price of friendship, revealing he won’t
The NHS England waiting list has fallen for a fifth month in a row: to 7.54 million in February, down from 7.58 million in January. Since September last year, the overall waiting list has fallen by nearly 200,000 treatments, the ‘biggest five-month fall…in over ten years outside of the pandemic’ according to the Department of
It was extremely optimistic to think the UK could revise its way out of recession. After the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported GDP figures for Q4 last year showing a 0.3 per cent economic contraction between October and December, a recession seemed set in stone. Today the ONS reports no revisions to the figures.
