Mitt Romney will announce his choice of running mate at one o’clock this afternoon, but members of the campaign have already confirmed his identity: Congressman Paul Ryan. I reported yesterday that the Republican right has been pressuring Romney to pick Ryan, and it looks like he’s bowed to that pressure. Despite having served as chairman
The next big event of the US presidential election will be Mitt Romney’s announcement of his Vice Presidential nominee. For the past few weeks, the two clear favourites have been Ohio Senator — and Budget Office director under George W Bush — Rob Portman and former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Both certainly fit the description
When challenged on the Bank of England’s poor record of economic forecasting by Ed Conway of Sky News this morning, Mervyn King said: ‘This isn’t a spot the ball contest where you’re trying to hit one point on the picture. This is a question of assessing the balance of risks… We don’t pretend to have
It’s coming up fast: there are now just three months to go to Election Day in the United States. And right now, Barack Obama’s looking a good bet — although certainly not a safe one — for re-election. The forecasting model designed by the New York Times’s Nate Silver — which accounts for both polls and
‘Poll shows support for UK split has dropped,’ proclaims the Scotsman today . Looking at the actual poll , the headline may be over-reaching slightly: YouGov’s latest figures are within the margin of error of the ones from January, and anyway the question is worded differently. But it should certainly be worrying for Alex Salmond
They may have failed to install one of their candidates as the Republican’s presidential nominee, but the Tea Party is having better luck in other elections. Last night, Ted Cruz — backed by Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul — beat Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst 57-43 in the Republican primary for Texas’s senate election
‘It is clear that urgent reform of the Libor compilation process is required,’ says Martin Wheatley of the Financial Services Authority. Hardly a revelation: it’s been clear since Barclays was fined for its part in the manipulation. Some were even pushing for reform back in 2008, such as the then-president of the New York Fed
A couple of weeks ago, I took a look at the tight battle for control of the United States Senate. This week: the House of Representatives. The fight for the lower chamber of Congress is much harder to assess. There are, after all, 435 individual contests — each with its own unique candidates, characteristics and
While our economy was contracting by 0.7 per cent, America’s was growing by 0.4 per cent, according to the first estimate just released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. But, as the graph below shows, those 2012 Q2 figures just represent a continuation of the divergent economic paths the two countries have been on
A few years ago, comedian Marcus Brigstocke beautifully summed up the national response to the news that we’d be hosting the Olympic Games: ‘“Would you like the oldest, most historically significant athletic competition the world has ever known, attracting athletes from every known nation on the face of the planet to come here and perform
‘Osborne’s austerity is killing the recovery.’ It’s a familiar refrain, one that we hear every time there’s bad economic news. And, sure enough, today’s terrible GDP stats have sparked yet another rendition. Take this, for example, from the TUC’s Brendan Barber: ‘The government’s austerity strategy is failing so spectacularly that is has wiped out the recovery
The ONS’s first estimate of GDP in Q2 of 2012 shows a 0.7 per cent fall on Q1. It’s worth remembering that this is just a preliminary estimate and subject to revision later, but that’s a very big drop — the largest since the beginning of 2009 — driven largely by a big 5.2 per cent contraction
‘If you treasure it, measure it.’ So Gus O’Donnell said when addressing the All Party Parliamentary Group on Wellbeing Economics in November. Well, the government has decided it treasures our well-being, and so is determined to measure it. It’s an incredibly tricky task — as I’ve noted before — but it’s a significant step forward that the Office for
What’s HSBC done wrong? Put simply, HSBC was not rigorous enough in preventing money laundering through its banks. Last week, the United States Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations released a damning report finding that HSBC had ‘exposed the US financial system to a wide array of money laundering, drug trafficking, and terrorist financing risks due to poor
Today’s round of public finance statistics bring mixed news for the government. The headlines have focused on the fact that borrowing last month — at £14.4 billion — was £0.5 billion higher than in June 2011. But considering that the monthly borrowing figures end up being revised by an average of £1.7 billion (usually downwards), we shouldn’t
So the IMF has revised its forecasts for the UK’s GDP growth downwards — to 0.2 in 2012 and 1.4 in 2013 from the 0.8 per cent and 2.0 respectively it predicted in April. It’s bad news, certainly — not least because we’ve been downgraded more than most other countries, and we’re now forecast to grow more
The battle for control of the White House is, of course, the big US politics story of the year. But what about the building at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue — the Capitol, which houses Congress? All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for re-election, as well as 33 of the
Ever wondered what would happen to the British economy if net immigration were slashed to zero? Well today’s ‘Fiscal Sustainability Report’ from the number crunchers at the Office for Budget Responsibility provides a glimpse of what such a future might look like — and it is a grim picture indeed. They’ve put together projections for
The coalition’s backbenchers have already proven the most rebellious of any government. There have already been — by my count, adding the 239 rebellions up to the end of April listed in Philip Cowley and Mark Stuart’s Bumper Book of Coalition Rebellions to the eight listed on the Public Whip since then — 247 votes
So the Bank of England is firing up the presses again, and injecting another £50 billion of Quantitative Easing (on top of the £325 billion we’ve had so far), in a desperate bid to get the economy moving. The Bank’s certainly right that growth’s not forthcoming. GDP in the first quarter of this year was
