John Raine

John Raine was a British diplomat for 33 years, in Kuwait, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Baghdad and Islamabad. He is now a senior adviser at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Assad’s demise, Isis’s rise?

From our UK edition

The Iranian-dominated Shia arc has collapsed. The keystone to the arc was Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the partnership that his father Hafiz al-Assad forged with the Iranian regime in the 1980s.  That alliance gave Tehran for decades its only state-level Arab ally, one that shares a border with Israel.   It was also critical in enabling supply of Hezbollah and providing forward bases and freedom of movement for Islamic Revolutionary Guard personnel. In return Assad’s Syria gained strategic depth in the form of an Islamic partner and patron. The survival of Assad’s Syria was a point of strategic convergence between Russia and Tehran.