James Johnson was a senior research and strategy adviser to Theresa May between 2016-2019. He is co-founder of
the research company J.L. Partners
Trump is headed to the White House. As I write, that is the consensus of almost all political experts, including the New York Times’ Nate Cohn, who puts Trump’s chance of victory at greater than 95 per cent. Trump is set to pick up at least one – and possibly all three – of Michigan,
It’s Kamala. The result of the last 48 hours, capping off one of the most eventful weeks in American political history, has been to all but confirm Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee for president this November. More than half the delegates at the upcoming DNC in Chicago have pledged their support to her,
From the moment the Conservatives called this summer election they seemed doomed: Sunak had failed to deliver on his five promises, much of the electorate had given up on him, and Starmer looked set for power. But there still seemed like the possibility of a hung parliament, or perhaps Labour only getting a small majority,
The tightening looks on. On Tuesday, my polling firm JL Partners published its first campaign poll showing a 12-point Labour lead, down from 15 points at the start of May and 18 points in April. Our data scientist, Callum Hunter, has written for The Spectator on why we are confident our methodology is the right
Until yesterday there was a fair amount of goodwill towards Rishi Sunak amongst his colleagues. Tory parliamentarians would not have been happy with a defeat in an election forced upon the Prime Minister at the end of the year, but they might have understood it. Most MPs felt the PM had been dealt a dire
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A new YouGov poll has Reform just four points behind the Conservatives. Richard Tice’s party is on 15 per cent, and Rishi Sunak’s party is on 19 per cent. What is driving the Tory decline? Max Jeffery speaks to Katy Balls and to James Johnson of JL Partners.
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New polling from JL Partners shows how Rishi Sunak has changed, in the eyes of the public. They found that while Sunak was initially seen as a direct ‘breath of fresh air’, he is now frequently described as ‘out of touch’, ‘spineless’ and ‘false’. To discuss what went wrong for the PM, James Heale and
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Freddy Gray is joined by pollster James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners. They speak about the upcoming Iowa caucuses, the New Hampshire primary, and whether Trump’s opponents have any chance of beating him. They also discuss the impact of Trump’s trials, and JL Partners’ viral word cloud which both Biden and Trump have been attempting
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The dust has settled after yesterday’s by-election results. Having narrowly avoided a triple by-election defeat there seems to be little sign of Conservative party in-fighting, despite their poor showing. There is however a war of words brewing between the London Labour Party and Kier Starmer who blames Sadiq Khan’s Ulez plan for the failure to
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The local election results so far paint a fairly grim picture for the Conservatives, whilst Labour and the Liberal Democrats have made big gains in key areas. With Starmer in the advantage position ahead of the next general election, how will No. 10 respond? Is there a path for the Tories in 2024? Katy Balls
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Rishi Sunak’s personal poll ratings are on the up, by why don’t the public love Keir Starmer? We talk through the latest polling. And Mark Spencer, now the farming minister, has been cleared by an investigation into whether he made Islamophobic investigations to fellow Tory MP Nus Ghani. Is the row over? Max Jeffery is
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After the news this week that Nicola Sturgeon will step aside as leader of the Scottish National Party, can the cause of Scottish independence survive without her? James Heale speaks to Katy Balls and James Johnson, former Downing Street pollster and co-founder of JL Partners.
Lee Anderson, the recently-appointed Tory party deputy chairman, has sparked a political row with his comments on capital punishment. ‘Nobody has ever committed a crime after being executed. 100 per cent success rate,’ he said in an interview with The Spectator. Rishi Sunak says he disagrees, and is not in favour of the death penalty.
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Today, Rishi Sunak faced another round of questioning over the two ongoing Tory sleaze scandals. What is it about these stories that infuriate voters, and can the Prime Minister close the chapter on them as he promised to do? Max Jeffery talks to Katy Balls and pollster James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners. Produced by
The loss of Wakefield and Tiverton and Honiton has shaken the Conservative party. But governments like Thatcher’s and Cameron’s have suffered mid-term blues before and bounced back to win elections. Is there anything really that different about what is happening now that will stop Boris Johnson making a similar recovery? In my view, the answer
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Isabel Hardman talks to James Forsyth and James Johnson of the J.L. Partners polling company, about how much the Conservative party has to fear from tactical votes at the next election.
When Dominic Cummings released his WhatsApp messages with Boris Johnson earlier this month, perhaps the most alarming was the one where both men fretted about ‘trends in polls and lots of focus groups over the past 2 weeks’. The texts, dated 27 April 2020, also saw the Prime Minister asking about ‘tonight[‘s] focus group and
In the last week, I’ve been crisscrossing the United States, meeting with politicians and their advisers ahead of this year’s congressional elections. Almost everyone has asked me about the ongoing Boris Johnson saga. Their most common refrain is surprise: how can the simple act of attending a party prompt a prime minister’s ever-more-likely political demise?
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Katy Balls talks to James Forsyth and James Johnson, the co-founder of the J. L. Partners polling company, about what the Conservative defeat in North Shropshire means for the Prime Minister’s future.
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Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon seem to be battling for the position of most amiable leader. The First Minister invited Johnson to meet with her on his visit to Scotland, but the PM politely declined, instead inviting Sturgeon to a more formal meeting of devolved administrations. The Prime Minister’s visit to Scotland is part of
