James Heale

In the end, it was not even that close. The Green party has stormed to victory in Gorton and Denton, winning their first ever parliamentary by-election by more than 4,000 votes. Hannah Spencer, the new MP, pulled off an impressive result, winning 41 per cent of the vote compared to Reform's Matt Goodwin on 29 per cent and Labour's Angeliki Stogia in third on 26 per cent. In her victory speech, Spencer – a plumber – attributed her victory to ordinary people being 'bled dry' and jokingly apologised to customers who had booked in her services. If Hannah Spencer is the clear winner, then Keir Starmer is the obvious loser If Hannah Spencer is the clear winner, then Keir Starmer is the obvious loser.

One intriguing element of the battle on the right is the arms race for donations. Twelve months ago, Kemi Badenoch’s supporters could point to her prowess in this field; the Tory leader managed to raise £3.3 million in the first three months of 2025. By contrast Reform UK, the pop-up party, were struggling to keep the lights on for much of 2024. They received just £280,000 large donations in the final quarter that year – less than the moribund Communist Party of Great Britain registered. Indeed, when I interviewed Nigel Farage last May, he wondered aloud just how the Tories were still able to raise so much money, given their diminished political fortunes. Fast forward to the beginning of 2026 and Reform can boast a different story.

There is an old joke about Nigel Farage, put about by former colleagues. ‘Why is Nigel like a beech tree?… Because nothing grows under him.’ The comparison to this acid-leafed tree which stifles all beneath it is one the Reform UK leader has never accepted. ‘I don’t fall out with people,’ he once said. ‘They fall out with me.’ Like Tintin, Farage has enjoyed many different adventures in different guises: ‘Nigel in America’, ‘Nigel in the Jungle’, ‘Nigel in the City’. This week, we got another: ‘Nigel and the Gang of Four’, the leader who seeks power only to yield it to others. Four names were unveiled as part of Reform’s new ‘shadow cabinet’ to show he is building something bigger than himself.

It has been a busy few days for Reform UK. Having dominated the last summer recess, this week they are determined to do the same. This morning, the party unveiled their ‘shadow cabinet’, with prime jobs for Robert Jenrick (Shadow Chancellor), Richard Tice (Shadow Business, Energy and Trade), Suella Braverman (Shadow Education, Equalities and Skills) and Zia Yusuf (Shadow Home Affairs). It is part of Reform’s attempt to show that they are serious about building a team that can rebuild ‘Broken Britain.’ Yusuf, of course, has served as Reform’s Head of Policy since September, when he was appointed to succeed Simon Marcus during the party conference.

The parliamentary recess ought to buy Keir Starmer a bit of much-needed breathing space. But the Prime Minister has suffered an unwelcome rebuff today on his plans to reorganise local government. Amid protests at his plans, a legal showdown was planned for Thursday on proposals to delay 30 council elections across the North and South of England. Yet barely 72 hours ahead of that court deadline, officials threw in the towel, conceding that those elections could now go ahead. It marks a significant victory for Reform UK, who launched the lawsuit, and risks exacerbating the scale of Labour losses on 7 May.

Sir Keir Starmer is now the Black Knight of British politics. Like the mutilated pugilist of Monty Python, he stumbles around the Westminster battlefield, blustering and boasting while desperately trying not to totter over. Starmer and his team have spent most of the day trying to defend their decision to hand a peerage to Matthew Doyle, No. 10’s former communications chief. Doyle was appointed to the House of Lords last month – despite having campaigned for a friend charged with child sex offenses.  The subject dominated Prime Ministers’ Questions this lunchtime and the subsequent briefing for journalists.