James Heale

James Heale

James Heale is The Spectator’s deputy political editor.

Thursday

James Heale

Farage claims the mantle of Thatcher’s revolution

From our UK edition

After a day of drama in Westminster, an intriguing party was hosted in the City. The Prosperity Institute, formerly Legatum, is not one of the more venerable think tanks, like the Fabians or the IEA. But the attendant crowd – a mix of centre-right wonks, spinners, thinkers and politicians – was a testament to the work that the institute has done since July 2024. A large marquee and well-stocked bar prompted one guest to remark that 'It felt more of a wedding than a wake'. That was a refreshing sentiment for many attendees, given the tendency of such events to become mournful, dour affairs since the election. But it also highlighted an important theme: will there be a happy union on the British right before 2029?

James Heale

Farage is the pacesetter of British politics

From our UK edition

For the past year, Nigel Farage has served as the great pacesetter of British politics. Reform UK has shot to the top of the polls, as Labour and the Tories languish behind. On immigration, the economy and much else, it is his five-man band that sets the tune. It is the inverse of Norman Lamont’s jibe about ‘being in office but not in power’. From his new base near the top of Millbank Tower, Farage enjoys a commanding view of Westminster. The office, an explosion of teal decor, has a large press briefing room, which aides liken to the one in the White House. At a desk adorned with a porcelain Union Jack bulldog, Farage plots his next steps.

Wednesday

James Heale

Chancellor in tears during PMQs

From our UK edition

11 min listen

There were extraordinary scenes in PMQs today. Rachel Reeves appeared distraught as the Prime Minister failed to guarantee her security when asked by leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch. It was brutal to watch, as the iron chancellor’s lip quivered and a tear rolled down her cheek. In many ways, you can’t blame her – with her headroom narrowing, she will be forced to find a further £5 billion worth of savings to allow for the government’s botched welfare bill. No. 10 has since clarified that Rachel Reeves has not resigned and will not be sacked, stressing that it was ‘personal’ matter that had upset her, ‘which - as you would expect - we are not going to get into. The chancellor will be working out of Downing Street this afternoon’.

Tuesday

James Heale

Welfare vote: how many will rebel?

From our UK edition

14 min listen

It’s D-Day for Labour’s welfare reforms. MPs will vote tonight on the party’s watered-down benefits cuts. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall formally announced Labour’s climbdown yesterday, telling MPs that the government had ‘listened carefully’ and was bringing in ‘positive changes’. Well, that’s one way of putting it. Even so, Labour is braced for a rebellion from dozens of MPs. We’ll know the full number at around 7pm, but it is not expected that there will be the 83 required to overturn the government’s majority. On today’s podcast, we take you inside the debate including some of the most notable speeches and what the fallout could be for the government. Can we expect a reshuffle in the near future? Should Keir Starmer watch his back?

James Heale

How many Labour welfare rebels are left?

From our UK edition

Tonight, we will find out just how many Labour welfare rebels there really are. A vote on the second reading of the government’s reforms is expected after 7pm. Liz Kendall, the Work and Pensions Secretary, is facing the Commons this afternoon as she tries to whittle numbers down to as few as possible. There are some encouraging signs. Meg Hillier, the Labour veteran who sponsored the initial rebel amendment, has now withdrawn it following £3 billion in concessions. However, Rachael Maskell, a serial soft left critic, has stepped into the breach and is now putting forward her own amendment to effectively kill the Bill. Hillier boasted up to 126 names; Maskell has 35 MPs backing her.

James Heale

Can these Farage rivals’ start-ups hurt Reform?

From our UK edition

You wait ages for a right-wing movement to come along – and then two do so at once. Former MEPs Ben Habib and Rupert Lowe both launched rival outlets yesterday. Habib now leads 'Advance UK', a political party whose first aim is to reach 30,000 members. Meanwhile, Lowe has started 'Restore Britain', a 'bottom-up movement' which welcomes members from all parties. It aims to start legal challenges, fund investigative journalists and champion whistleblowers. Both are ex-Reformers who came off worst in a fight with Nigel Farage The two movements share several key features. The first is a championing of direct democracy, with both Advance and Restore urging members to join and shape their direction.

Monday

James Heale

How big will the Labour welfare rebellion be?

From our UK edition

This afternoon Liz Kendall will update the House of Commons on her revised plans for welfare, following the concessions wrung out of her by Labour MPs. The Work and Pensions Secretary announced plans on Thursday night for £3 billion in additional funds. This will allow current claimants of personal independence payments to keep their current benefits. It ensures, too, that existing recipients of the health-related element of Universal Credit will have their incomes protected in real terms. The U-turn came ahead of tomorrow night’s vote on the welfare bill’s second reading. The whips estimate there will be around 50 Labour MPs who defy the government Ahead of Kendall’s statement, there is only one question that everyone is asking: how big will the Labour welfare rebellion be?

James Heale

Does Starmer still want to be PM?

From our UK edition

13 min listen

There have been a number of navel-gazing interviews with the Prime Minister over the weekend. Across thousands and thousands of words, he seems to be saying – if you read between the lines – that he doesn't particularly enjoy being PM. In better news, Labour seems to have quelled the welfare rebellion. Liz Kendall is making a statement in the Commons this afternoon, in which she will outline the concessions that Labour has made on its controversial welfare bill. All in, the cost has spiralled by £3 billion per calendar year – which an already put-upon Chancellor will have to find. Whilst it remains the largest rebellion of this government, the number of rebels has shrunk to around 50.

Saturday

James Heale

Why Keir Starmer is worried about Wales

From our UK edition

Keir Starmer's address to the Welsh Labour conference this morning was exactly the kind of speech we expected. With eleven months to go until a difficult set of devolved elections, the Prime Minister fell back on the greatest hits to play to the party faithful. Labour is the party with the 'interests of working people at their heart' and 'it always will be', Starmer said. The Senedd elections next May risk producing a 'backroom stitch-up between the Tories, Reform and Plaid' with 'working families left to pick up the bill.' He reeled off various achievements: the minimum wage increase, workers' rights, the carer's allowance and, most significantly, a 'record uplift to Welsh funding.' The Llandudno audience received it appreciatively enough.

James Heale

Steve Baker on how to organise a successful rebellion

From our UK edition

25 min listen

As Labour rebels appear to have forced concessions from Keir Starmer over welfare this week, former Conservative MP Steve Baker joins James Heale to reflect on his own time as a rebel, and to provide some advice to Labour MPs. Steve, an MP for 14 years and a minister under Theresa May, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, tells James about the different rebellions he was a part of (from Brexit to Covid), explains how to organise a successful one and reveals how he has lost close friends when he has made the decision to compromise.

Friday

James Heale

Welfare U-turn: is Keir in control?

From our UK edition

15 min listen

Keir Starmer has performed a screeching about-turn on his flagship welfare reforms, all in the hope of quelling the rebellion from more than 120 MPs who have been promised ‘massive concessions’ over concerns about disability benefits. These include moderating the bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits, and offering to protect Personal Independence Payments (PIP) for all existing claimants for ever – to ensure there would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants, a key concern of the welfare rebels. But new claimants will be affected, as ministers desperately try to stop ever-spiralling disability and sickness welfare spending climbing to £100 billion by 2030.

James Heale

The knives are out after Labour’s welfare debacle

From our UK edition

If the Labour party were a cinema, then it would currently be showing a double billing: Groundhog Day and Knives Out. For older heads, the Welfare Bill has echoes of the 2015 vote on Universal Credit; newbies MPs are now experiencing what it is like to be in a full-on government briefing war. Plenty of fall-guys are cited in today's newspapers: from Alan Campbell and the whips' office to Morgan McSweeney and the political operation in No. 10. The most immediate loser from the welfare U-turn is Rachel Reeves. Both politically and fiscally, the Chancellor is now in a tight spot The most immediate loser from the welfare U-turn is Rachel Reeves. Both politically and fiscally, the Chancellor is now in a tight spot.

Thursday

James Heale

Keir Starmer climbs down on welfare cuts

From our UK edition

At last, Keir Starmer has bowed to the inevitable. Having first adopted a posture of defiance, then conciliation, the Prime Minister has tonight admitted capitulation on the great welfare revolt. The Guardian reports that the ringleaders of the 126 rebels who signed a wrecking amendment to the Welfare Bill are now claiming ‘massive concessions.’ It follows a tense afternoon of talks between Starmer and his MPs. It means another big U-turn for Starmer – and another hole in the Treasury’s finances The rebels say that they have been promised significant changes to planned cuts. These include moderating the Bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits.

James Heale

Can Keir Starmer save his Welfare Bill?

From our UK edition

The Prime Minister has never been a huge fan of the press. But there is an apt Fleet Street phrase to describe his screeching shift in tone on the great Labour welfare rebellion: reverse ferret! Just yesterday, he was all bullish talk, claiming that the more than 100 Labour MPs who want to vote down his Welfare Bill were little more than 'noises off'. But this morning in parliament, he has adopted a much more emollient approach. It comes after six more MPs backed a rebel amendment overnight, bringing the total to 126 – around half of those Labour MPs who do not hold a government role. The marked change in language is now being taken as No.

James Heale

Small boats are causing Labour big problems

From our UK edition

Summer is here – and for some in Labour it cannot come soon enough. After a tricky first year in office, the parliamentary party is in fractious mood. More than 100 of Keir Starmer’s MPs are raging against his welfare cuts; others are fuming about Israel. Some aides in No. 10 hope recess will give the government a much-needed chance to catch its breath. ‘Everyone needs a lie-down,’ says one party manager.  Yet in one corner of Whitehall, summer brings no respite. The Home Office is braced for a season of bad headlines: two more months helplessly watching small boats cross the Channel every day. Warm weather increases the likelihood of such trips.

Wednesday

James Heale

Welfare rebellion: why Starmer – and Reeves – should be worried

From our UK edition

17 min listen

Keir Starmer is facing war on both fronts. He is in the Netherlands to talk about defence and announce a major change in the UK's nuclear posture in response to rising challenges in the Middle East. But everyone in Westminster wants to talk about a different kind of warfare: the warfare over welfare. MPs will vote on the government’s controversial welfare bill, after more than 120 MPs signed a reasoned amendment that would effectively stop the bill in its tracks. What has been most concerning for the government is how organised the rebellion appears, with many picking up on the mutinous mood since Kim Leadbeater’s assisted dying bill. The government is increasingly looking like it will lose the vote. Are Labour going to pull the bill?

James Heale

Starmer stands by his welfare bill

From our UK edition

Keir Starmer is in the Netherlands to attend the Nato summit – but that is not the subject which is gripping everyone back home. This afternoon, the Prime Minister held a press conference to confirm that the UK will shortly be expanding its nuclear deterrent by buying a squadron of American-made fighter jets. It is the most significant change in Britain’s nuclear posture since the end of the Cold War. Yet the attendant hacks chose to focus on a rather different conflict. The welfare bill dominated today’s PMQs in Starmer’s absence and is clearly the obsession of MPs here in Westminster. With 120 Labour rebels now publicly confirmed, would the PM now be pulling the bill? Absolutely not, suggested Starmer.

James Heale

Angela Rayner had a bad PMQs

From our UK edition

With Keir Starmer at Nato, the hospital pass of this week's PMQs was handed instead to Angela Rayner. The welfare row is tearing apart the Labour party, with more than 120 MPs now committed to voting against the changes to disability benefit next Tuesday. In such circumstances, the obvious choice to fill in for Kemi Badenoch was the shadow chancellor Sir Mel Stride – the man who had previously held the work and pensions brief from 2022 to 2024. Given Labour's woes, today was always going to be a difficult day for Rayner. Sir Mel certainly made it so, opening with a decent crack about her recent leaked memo to Rachel Reeves. Welcoming Rayner to her place, Stride declared, ‘we share many things – not least that we both viscerally disagree with the Chancellor’s tax policy.

Tuesday

James Heale

Iran: ‘what the f***’ is going on?

From our UK edition

14 min listen

It is rare to see the President so visibly frustrated (see The Apprentice, circa 2004), but after Iran and Israel seemingly ignored his ceasefire announcement – and his plea on Truth Social, ‘PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!’ – Donald Trump has come down hard on both sides. In a clip taken this afternoon he exclaimed: ‘These are countries who have been fighting so long and so hard, that they don't know what the f*** they're doing.’ Succinctly put by the President. The exchange of fire could be the expected tit-for-tat seen after the announcement of ceasefires in other global conflicts, but it has dampened the mood at Nato, which world leaders were approaching with cautious optimism, believing the road to de-escalation was clearing. What happens next?

James Heale

Labour rebels declare war over Starmer’s welfare cuts

From our UK edition

It is a year next week since the general election and Labour is marking the occasion with the biggest backbench rebellion of Keir Starmer's premiership. Overnight, scores of Starmer's MPs have signed a reasoned amendment to the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment (PIP) Bill. This would effectively kill the Bill at its second reading next Tuesday if it passes through the Commons. Of the 108 Labour MPs who have signed the amendment, ten are Labour select committee chairs. The key message being sent by the rebels is that these are not the so-called 'usual suspects' on the left of the party.