James Heale

Zut alors! The French are in town. Emmanuel Macron is on his state visit this week, spending time today with the King and tomorrow with the Prime Minister. His itinerary includes a state dinner and an address to both Houses of Parliament this afternoon. All the pageantry, of course, is for a reason: to defrost what Tim Shipman calls the ‘entente glaciale’ and the stalemate over migration. Keir will be hoping to get the French to sign a ‘one in, one out’ migration deal – with Labour seemingly surprised that, upon coming into power, the French didn’t roll over and make concessions on small boats when a left-wing government took office. Can we expect a new entente cordiale? Is there anything in it for Macron when it comes to stopping the boats?

Cast your mind back a year. Labour had just won a storming majority, promising ‘change’ to a stale Tory party that was struggling to govern. But have things got any better? In the magazine this week, Tim Shipman writes the cover piece to mark the occasion of Labour’s first year in government. He takes readers through three chapters: from Sue Gray (freebies scandal and winter fuel cut) to Morgan McSweeney (a degree of professionalisation and dealing with the Donald) to the point at which ‘things fall apart’ (assisted dying, the welfare vote and Reeves’s tears).

Some sore heads on Coffee House Shots this morning, after last night’s Spectator summer party. But while we were having fun, a drama was brewing in the Labour party after it was finally confirmed that Jeremy Corbyn is starting a new left-wing party... or is he? The news was broken last night by another MP: Zarah Sultana, a long-time admirer of Corbyn. Elected as a Labour MP in 2019, she lost the whip last July for voting to lift the two-child-benefit cap. However, after discussions with figures within the Labour party, it has become apparent that Sultana took many of those involved completely by surprise. She has, in the words of one, ‘completely jumped the gun – no ideas had been properly decided’. It has plunged the new party into a crisis even before its creation.

There were extraordinary scenes in PMQs today. Rachel Reeves appeared distraught as the Prime Minister failed to guarantee her security when asked by leader of the opposition Kemi Badenoch. It was brutal to watch, as the iron chancellor’s lip quivered and a tear rolled down her cheek. In many ways, you can’t blame her – with her headroom narrowing, she will be forced to find a further £5 billion worth of savings to allow for the government’s botched welfare bill. No. 10 has since clarified that Rachel Reeves has not resigned and will not be sacked, stressing that it was ‘personal’ matter that had upset her, ‘which - as you would expect - we are not going to get into. The chancellor will be working out of Downing Street this afternoon’.

It’s D-Day for Labour’s welfare reforms. MPs will vote tonight on the party’s watered-down benefits cuts. Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall formally announced Labour’s climbdown yesterday, telling MPs that the government had ‘listened carefully’ and was bringing in ‘positive changes’. Well, that’s one way of putting it. Even so, Labour is braced for a rebellion from dozens of MPs. We’ll know the full number at around 7pm, but it is not expected that there will be the 83 required to overturn the government’s majority. On today’s podcast, we take you inside the debate including some of the most notable speeches and what the fallout could be for the government. Can we expect a reshuffle in the near future? Should Keir Starmer watch his back?

Keir Starmer has performed a screeching about-turn on his flagship welfare reforms, all in the hope of quelling the rebellion from more than 120 MPs who have been promised ‘massive concessions’ over concerns about disability benefits. These include moderating the bill to make it easier for people with multiple impairments to claim disability benefits, and offering to protect Personal Independence Payments (PIP) for all existing claimants for ever – to ensure there would be no detriment from the reforms for existing claimants, a key concern of the welfare rebels. But new claimants will be affected, as ministers desperately try to stop ever-spiralling disability and sickness welfare spending climbing to £100 billion by 2030.