James Heale

Tomorrow is Rachel Reeves’s big speech in the City. The annual Mansion House address is a chance for the chancellor to set out their big vision for the British economy. But amid a gloomy set of economic indicators – including two monthly GDP contractions in a row – it is difficult to see what good news message she can deliver. Initially, there was talk about reforms to cash ISAs, with Reeves planning to cut the £20,000 annual tax-free allowance. However, following a backlash, the Financial Times reports those plans have now been dropped. There is talk instead of Reeves promising a ‘new Big Bang’ by slashing regulation on financial services. That will undoubtedly find favour in some corners of the City.

Some big news in Labour land today. Angela Rayner, the party’s deputy leader, has had her membership of Unite suspended following her comments on the Birmingham bin strike. Or at least, that’s what the trade union said. It accused Rayner of supporting a Labour-run council that had ‘peddled lies’, after she urged bin workers to accept its pay offer. Sharon Graham, Unite’s general secretary, told its annual conference that ‘Rayner has had every opportunity to intervene and resolve this dispute but has instead backed a rogue council that has peddled lies and smeared its workers fighting huge pay cuts.’ However, the New Statesman reported that Rayner had resigned her membership of Unite ‘several months ago’, meaning she can’t be suspended. Who’s telling the truth?

The entente is still very much cordiale. Talks between Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron are ongoing on the third day of the Anglo-French summit. The key issue is migration: how best to stop the constant flow of Channel crossings that have seen 20,000 arrive here this year already? Like Rwanda, this deal faces numerous practical and political hurdles Both, publicly, are singing from the same hymn sheet, with lashings of Gallic sweetness. In remarks this morning, the French President praised the relationship between London and Paris. Both nations, he insisted, share ‘the same resolve to fight’ people smugglers. The Prime Minister spoke, again, of ‘new tactics’ and a ‘new intent to tackle illegal migration and break the business model of the criminal gangs’.

After a day of drama in Westminster, an intriguing party was hosted in the City. The Prosperity Institute, formerly Legatum, is not one of the more venerable think tanks, like the Fabians or the IEA. But the attendant crowd – a mix of centre-right wonks, spinners, thinkers and politicians – was a testament to the work that the institute has done since July 2024. A large marquee and well-stocked bar prompted one guest to remark that 'It felt more of a wedding than a wake'. That was a refreshing sentiment for many attendees, given the tendency of such events to become mournful, dour affairs since the election. But it also highlighted an important theme: will there be a happy union on the British right before 2029?

This afternoon Liz Kendall will update the House of Commons on her revised plans for welfare, following the concessions wrung out of her by Labour MPs. The Work and Pensions Secretary announced plans on Thursday night for £3 billion in additional funds. This will allow current claimants of personal independence payments to keep their current benefits. It ensures, too, that existing recipients of the health-related element of Universal Credit will have their incomes protected in real terms. The U-turn came ahead of tomorrow night’s vote on the welfare bill’s second reading. The whips estimate there will be around 50 Labour MPs who defy the government Ahead of Kendall’s statement, there is only one question that everyone is asking: how big will the Labour welfare rebellion be?