Ian O’Doherty

The Irish government has spent a lot of time trying to reassure voters that they have little to fear from any economic realignment with America. Now it is openly acknowledging the uncomfortable truth: that more than any other EU member state, Ireland is in a remarkably precarious position following Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs. Internal government economic models have indicated that the Irish economy could lose 60,000 jobs in the next 12 months as a direct result of Trump's trade war – with many more losses expected to follow. The reasons for Ireland's unique and perilous exposure are varied. It is heavily reliant on US tech and pharmaceutical companies which have made Ireland their base.

As the war of words between Donald Trump and the EU continues to escalate, European countries have become increasingly concerned about their military reliance on the United States. As a result, the need to increase defence spending has become a major issue. Germany has abandoned its 'debt lock' as it seeks to raise more funds for its military, while Macron has repeatedly spoken of the need to gain more 'strategic autonomy' away from America. Now the debate has even spread to Ireland, the country on the furthest western edge of the EU. Traditionally, Ireland has prided itself on its neutrality or 'military non-alignment', while also enjoying a long-standing record of serving with UN peacekeeping forces, most notably in the Congo and southern Lebanon.

Howard Lutnick, former CEO of the financial firm Cantor Fitzgerald, and now Secretary of Commerce in the Trump administration, has quickly attained the status of pantomime villain in Ireland. Last year, Lutnick criticised Ireland's tax arrangements, saying ‘It’s nonsense that Ireland of all places runs a trade surplus at our expense.’ He increased his pressure on Ireland last week when he appeared on the All-In business podcast and sarcastically referred to Ireland as his ‘favourite tax scam’ – the one he was most looking forward to ‘fixing’. This has prompted an increasingly nervous Irish government to make extra efforts to placate the Trump administration – which they previously treated with a degree of disdain.

The Irish Taoiseach Micheal Martin will have felt some relief after his visit to the White House last week. While Trump criticised Ireland for poaching American pharmaceutical companies, the general consensus was that Martin had walked away pretty unscathed. In fact, the mood was so optimistic following the encounter that Tanaiste Simon Harris, also in America for the week, offered Trump a state visit to Ireland sometime next year.  But whatever warmth of feeling the Irish government may have had towards the American President will have plummeted into the freezing depths following Trump's decision to invite Conor McGregor to the White House to mark St Patrick's Day. It is perhaps not surprising that McGregor received an invitation.

The Taoiseach Micheal Martin’s White House encounter with Donald Trump was controversial even before it was announced. Before any invitation had been extended, Sinn Fein said they were going to boycott the event in a show of solidarity with the people of Ukraine and Gaza and as a sign of their commitment ‘to humanity’. The People Before Profit party said Martin was endorsing America’s role in a genocide and Labour leader Ivana Bacik insisted the Taoiseach take the opportunity to publicly scold Trump on Ukraine, Gaza and his perceived failures to take action on climate change.

Would Donald Trump invite Irish politicians to the White House for the traditional St Patrick's Day visit this year? It’s a question that has been asked many times in Ireland in the past few weeks. It's a tradition which began in 1952 but in the decades since it has grown in stature to become the most important Irish diplomatic moment of the year. With the invitation normally extended by the second week of February and no sign of any offer arriving, it began to look increasingly likely this was going to be a rather pointed snub by the Trump administration. But to the relief of Taoiseach Micheál Martin and his staff, the longed-for letter arrived at the last minute on February 27.

Oh, what a tangled web we weave. When Donald Trump made his rather provocative claim that the US would expel all Palestinians from Gaza and turn the region into the ‘Riviera of the Middle East’, international condemnation came thick and fast – matched only by the confusion of world leaders. Did the President of the United States really mean that he wanted to create his very own Mar-a-Gaza, complete with luxurious golf courses and tatty tourist shops, or was there a method to his madness?  Egypt has already insisted that it won't take a single Palestinian refugee, Jordan has warned the United States that it would consider any such plans an outright act of war. None of the other countries in the region have expressed any interest in welcoming 1.

As Ireland’s octogenarian President, Michael D Higgins, enters the last few months of his final term in office, a man who was always outspoken in his views seems to have dropped any presidential filter. Higgins spent much of last year on what seemed like a one-man mission against Israel, making a series of wild and frequently incorrect statements about the Jewish state. First he claimed that the Israeli embassy in Dublin leaked a letter of congratulations he had written to the incoming Iranian leader (they didn't). Then, at the height of the war in Gaza, he argued that Israel planned to annex parts of Egypt (they haven’t).

'Tis the season of goodwill to all men. Except for the Irish and Israelis, that is, who have seen their already frosty relationship plunged into positively freezing temperatures this weekend with Israel's decision to close its embassy in Dublin. Sunday's announcement was unusually stark in diplomatic terms, but it reflects the growing resentment and, at times, genuine confusion felt by many politicians and diplomats in Jerusalem and Dublin about what they see as Ireland’s unfairly pro-Palestinian position since October 7th.