Gavin Mortimer

The German government has expressed its ‘concern’ at the prospect of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally forming the next government of France. Poland’s PM Donald Tusk – the man who said Brexiteers deserved ‘a special place in hell’ – responded to the result by saying ‘this is all really starting to smell very dangerous’. Not in Italy, where the odour wafting down from France after the first round of the parliamentary election was rather to the liking of Giorgia Meloni. ‘I congratulate the Rassemblement National and its allies for the clear success,’  she said.

It has been a bad few days for Volodymyr Zelensky. The president of Ukraine must have covered his face with his hands as he watched Joe Biden’s rambling performance against Donald Trump in last week’s televised debate. Trump’s view on Ukraine’s war with Russia are well-known: he wants an end to the conflict Then came the results from the first round of the parliamentary elections in France. There is still a second round to play but one thing is certain: the next government will not be one of Emmanuel Macron’s choice. His political project – what he described as ‘neither left nor right’ – is dead, and so to all intents and purposes is his presidency. In office but not in power.

Emmanuel Macron suffered the biggest humiliation of his presidency on Sunday evening as his Renaissance party was beaten into third place in the first round of the parliamentary elections. Exit polls confirmed what the opinion polls predicted last week: that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is now the dominant force in French politics. It surpassed the 31 per cent score in the European elections on June 9 – a victory that prompted Macron to call a snap election – winning 34 per cent of the vote. The left-wing Popular Front coalition was second with 29 per cent, and Macron’s centrist Renaissance party trailed in third on 22 per cent. The turnout was 69 per cent, the biggest participation since the 1986 election.

The European Union has reached an agreement on the bloc’s political leadership for the next five years – and in the process again demonstrated that ineptitude is no barrier to promotion. The 27 leaders of the EU have reappointed Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission. Estonian Kaja Kallas is the High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and António Costa has been nominated as president of the European Council. The nominations of von der Leyen and Kallas must be ratified by the European Parliament next month but Costa, the former Socialist prime minister of Portugal, has been endorsed by his peers and will take office on 1 December. Kallas and Costas have been mired in scandal in recent months.

One year ago today, a 17-year-old called Nahel Merzouk was fatally shot by a policeman as he sped away from a vehicle checkpoint in western Paris. What followed shocked France. Days of rioting, looting and burning across the country. Not just in the inner cities but in provincial towns such as Montargis in central France, where a mob vandalised the town hall and pillaged scores of shops. ‘I still have people who almost a year later don't want to come back to the centre because of the riots,’ said one shopkeeper this week. ‘They've been apprehensive ever since, traumatised, even though we're a fairly quiet town.

If England’s excuse for their inept performances is Gareth Southgate, what explains France’s failure to come to life at this month’s European Championships? World Cup winners in 2018 and runners-up in 2022, the French were one of the pre-match favourites going into the tournament. They’ve been even worse than England, finishing second in group D having won once and drawn twice against mediocre opposition. They’ve scored just two goals, and one of them was an own goal from an Austrian. Something is clearly not functioning within the French team Yet this is a settled squad under the same coach, Didier Deschamps, who led them to World Cup glory six years ago.

The figurehead of the far left and the man who dreams of becoming Prime Minister of France declared this week: ‘Macron is finished, and his supporters and the right are going to have to choose between us and the National Rally.’ Jean-Luc Melenchon’s boast is borne out by the latest polls. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is currently top, followed by the left-wing Popular Front coalition, with Macron’s centrists a distant third. Le Pen could even win enough seats to form an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly given the radicalism of many within the left-wing coalition.

The warnings continue to come thick and fast in France about the disaster that could befall the Republic on 7 July if Emmanuel Macron and his government are not returned to power. From the celebrity world to the corporate world – including American investment bank Goldman Sachs – the belief is that France is doomed if either Marine Le Pen’s ‘union of the right’ or Jean-Luc Melenchon’s left-wing coalition is elected to government. Several former senior French politicians have joined the fear-mongering, among them Dominique de Villepin, who was Jacques Chirac’s centre-right prime minister in the 2000s before leaving politics for a lucrative career working with Qatar.