Elisabeth Braw

NATO’s mission is to defend every inch of its members’ territory, the alliance’s mantra goes. Then, on 29 May, a Russian drone hit a Romanian block of flats, injuring two people. Now Nato faces a dilemma: if it doesn’t react, it signals that adversaries can hit Nato with impunity as long the harm is, in the scheme of things, insignificant. If it does hit back, it risks full-scale war. This dilemma is precisely why Russia is so cavalier about minor incursions. In the early hours of 29 May, a Russian drone whizzed through Ukrainian airspace and entered Romanian territory, where it hit a block of flats in the port city of Galati. A mother and child were injured in their home.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is demonstrating in no uncertain terms that world war three is possible. Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, who is also his country’s former top commander, has suggested that other countries can prepare by learning from what is happening in Ukraine. They certainly can. Better yet, by swiftly preparing their societies for a war like the one now raging in Ukraine, western countries can help prevent another world war. Had institutions, companies and citizens not been so agile, Ukraine would be facing not just a brutal Russian invader but a collapsing society too ‘Is humanity ready to calmly accept the next war in terms of the scale of suffering? This time the Third World War?

‘Don’t mention the war!’ Remember that? Today, war seems nearly all that European leaders want to talk about. The prospect of conflict with Russia is real, and a confrontation seems increasingly likely. That’s why Europe’s political leaders are beginning to discuss, in frank and sometimes alarming tones, the ways their countries should prepare to fight. Estonia’s prime minister, Poland’s head of national security and the Danish defence minister all say Russia could have the soldiers and equipment to launch an attack in three years. Emmanuel Macron last week met his German and Polish counterparts in Berlin to discuss Europe’s military support for Ukraine, after refusing to rule out – again – deploying French troops onto Ukrainian soil.