Charlie Gammell is a historian and former diplomat who was on the Iran desk at the Foreign Office.
As the world reels from the chaos of a geopolitical order turned upside down, and as we wait to see if America really will invade Canada, spare a thought for Tehran. Losing one ally in the space of 12 months (Hezbollah) is bad enough. But losing two (Syria) is downright terrible. And then add to
To talk or not to talk? This is the slogan that’s doing the rounds among the Islamic Republic of Iran’s politicians, hardliner and reformist. Donald Trump has made it clear he hopes that Iran might abandon their nuclear programme through a deal with Washington. This will, the President said, lessen the need for Israeli bombs
There are unintended consequences, and then there are unintended consequences. What we are seeing in Syria, as Aleppo and Hama fall (and Homs braces itself) to a coalition of anti-regime forces whose DNA is to be found in al-Qaeda et al, is an unintended consequence of Israel’s bombardment in Syria of Iran-funded pro-Assad groups, and
The mood music from Tehran regarding Donald Trump’s election victory was a mixture of ‘don’t care,’ and ‘very much do care.’ Regime insiders remember only too well the toll Trump’s last four years took on their state; Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Qassem Soleimani killed; economy shattered; regionally isolated due to Israeli-Arab normalisation. Trump
In 2012, as the Islamic Republic showed signs of buckling under the weight of US and EU sanctions, Senator John Kerry spearheaded a series of backchannel meetings with his Iranian counterparts to begin exploring the deal that became the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an arms reduction agreement between Iran and western nations in
As Israeli troops make incursions into southern Lebanon, in the wake of recent successful aerial and covert campaigns against Hezbollah, Tel Aviv appears ascendant. Iran, by contrast, seems on the back foot, at odds with its proxies and divided internally as to the way forward. Israel’s response to Iran’s missile strikes, and the West’s ability to check Israel’s actions to prevent all-out
Sun Tzu, the Chinese military strategist writing roughly 2,500 years ago, said that ‘Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.’ As we stand on the precipice of a truly frightening regional conflict, which pits a technologically advanced Israel and its allies against Iran and its allies in
Not only does the death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash in the fog and mountains in northern Iran, necessitate an election within 50 days, it has also removed the likely front-runner to replace Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Anyone hoping for a revolution will probably be disappointed Raisi was an attractive candidate
We’ve been here before. Iran has been here before. In 2020 its most senior IRGC commander, Qassem Soleimani, was killed in a US air strike on his convoy as they drove out of Baghdad airport. Soleimani was a much mythologised figure across the Middle East, famed for his ability to direct Iran’s regional proxies to
