Alex Massie

I know some readers have tired of Scotland's independence debate. That is understandable, even forgivable. It has, after all, been rumbling along for 40 years. There may only be six weeks of campaigning left but these arguments won't go away. You'll be hearing them again and again for the next few years at least. This is true even if Scotland does vote Yes next month. Because the argument about Scotland's place within the Union is really not very different from the argument about Britain's place within the European Union. Of course the similarities are not absolute but they are significant enough to be striking.

There are many ways to commission fat-headed political analysis but, in my experience, by far the easiest is to ask a novelist his (or her) opinion on the great issues of the day. Better still, ask several. That way you can be sure you'll get something even the student version of the Socialist Worker might think twice before publishing. There are, of course, exceptions. Some of them quite close to home, in my view. Nevertheless (as Miss Spark so often said) the general rule applies: asking writers for their views on politics is no more useful or sensible than asking gravediggers or sheep shearers their opinion. It may be interesting; it is not likely to be valuable. Or, to put it more kindly, expertise in writing fiction does not necessarily translate into expertise in analysing politics.

Because the Commonwealth Games are a thing and because newspapers need to fill their pages every day it is natural, even unavoidable, that they have in recent days been stuffed with pundits pontificating on the political significance of the games. Being a mere and humble freelance hack I wrote one such piece for the Daily Mail earlier this week even though I also stand by my suspicion that the political implications of these games are much too easily and keenly exaggerated. But that does not mean all such commentary is worthless or lacking interest. Here, for instance, is Lesley Riddoch writing in today's edition of the Scotsman: [A] subtle and powerful political point has been made with every waking moment of these Games.

Several people have asked me to write something about the politics and potential implications of the Commonwealth Games which open tonight in Glasgow. As is sometimes the case, I am happy to oblige. There aren't any. To think otherwise is to insult the great Scottish public. I am often prepared to do this, not least because it often needs to be done but in this instance, and not for the first time, the people are liable to be more sensible than the pundits. Back in the day, it was sometimes claimed that the campaign for (modest) home rule in 1979 was scuppered by Scotland's woeful (yet epic!) misadventure in the 1978 World Cup. I've always thought that theory insulted the electorate.

On matters domestic (England and Wales division) I was sad to see Dominic Grieve turfed-out of the cabinet in last week's reshuffle. Today he pops up in the Times to remind us (well, me) why his departure has lowered the average level of decency in the cabinet. According to the former Attorney-General, the Prime Minister's plans to rework Britain's relationship with the European Court of Human Rights are the kind of cockamamie scheme that would, quite correctly, be considered laughable if it were copied by, say, Vladimir Putin.

But for Europe, eh? It is a mark of how thoroughly the European issue has poisoned Tory waters that many party activists - and MPs - will be celebrating the end of Ken Clarke's ministerial career tonight. Not before time, many of them will doubtless froth. Well, maybe. But it bears remembering that the Tories who hated Clarke the most tend, more often than not, to be the Tories the public hates most. The kind of Conservatives good at losing elections and rather less good at winning them. That does not mean Clarke was always right or that his judgement was necessarily routinely sound. Nevertheless it is something to be kept in mind. Would the Conservatives have been better or worse off these past 20 years with more or with fewer politicians like Ken Clarke?

The first, and perhaps most important, thing to say about the 2015 general election is that it is Labour's to lose. The second thing to say is that Ed Miliband might be just the man to do it. Nevertheless and despite Miliband's awkwardness Tory optimists should ask themselves a very simple question: Which seats will we win in 2015 that we failed to win in 2010? Perhaps a handful will be taken from the Lib Dems and perhaps another handful can be snatched elsewhere but, overall, the battlefield picture is pretty damn bleak. But perhaps Labour will help. Miliband's problem is that his position is not secure to hunker down, do bugger all, and just wait for victory. He must move.

I know that it is unfashionable to feel sorry for Liberal Democrat MPs. Nevertheless there are times when, contemplating their unhappy lot,  it seems appropriate to feel the odd pang of pity. The latest polling from Lord Ashcroft furnishes one of these rare moments. He asked punters who they would like to see form the next government. As you would expect 77 percent of Tory supporters want a Conservative government while 14 percent actually rather like being in coalition with the Lib Dems and would be quite happy to see that arrangement continue. The picture is much the same amongst Labour voters. 80 percent say they want Labour to govern alone and 12 percent think a Labour-Lib Dem alliance would be better for Britain. But what of the remaining Lib Dem voters?

Listen: listen to ‘Spectator debate: independence is the greatest threat to Edinburgh’ on Audioboo.

I was surprised to discover this morning that Gordon Brown last night suggested the Scottish education system should be abolished and replaced by a new pan-UK curriculum and examination system. This would indeed be a bold thing to recommend three months before the independence referendum. A surprise too and the sort of thing you'd expect to be all over the news today if it weren't, of course, the case that the press is irrevocably biased against the nationalists and determined to bury anything that might embarrass Unionists. Still, Gordon said it. He must have. Otherwise why would Kenny Gibson MSP say Gordon Brown "has endorsed the idea of a UK-wide education system - which could only mean taking powers away from Scotland and giving them back to Westminster"?

There is much to enjoy in Dominic Cummings' glorious attack on the ghastliness of Britain's political system. It is a cri-de-coeur from a man who, whatever else may be said of him (and his enemies have plenty to say), has given the matter some thought. Westminster will swoon at the criticisms of Cameron ('a sphinx without a riddle'), Ed Llewellyn ('a classic third-rate suck-up-kick-down sycophant presiding over a shambolic court') and Craig Oliver ('just clueless')  but that's just the gags, really. The substance is elsewhere. As in: “MPs have no real knowledge of how to function other than via gimmick and briefings. That’s also how No 10 works. It’s how all of them are incentivised to operate.

BREAKING: The night is dark and full of nutters. Perhaps it's because I've been writing on the internet for nearly a decade now that this neither astonishes nor appals me. After enough time has passed you begin to appreciate that it doesn't matter. Not really. You learn to ignore the howling. Sure, it makes for good copy and there's hardly a hack or a blogger who hasn't peered beneath the line and despaired of humanity. It's a swamp, right enough. Sometimes, too, you wonder where all these bampots and zoomers live. Nowhere near you, you hope. But the chances are that some of them do. It sometimes takes an effort to remember that the fury chimps represent nothing more than their own tiny selves. You comfort yourself with the thought that though they may be like us they are not us.

In the new Scotland people may be able to count. Until then we will endure nonsense like yesterday's hoopla claiming there were 100 days until the referendum when there were, in fact, 101. Peevishness aside, the campaign now enters its final stages. Not before time, you may think. You would not be alone in reckoning so. For every person energised by the campaign (and many folk have been) there's at least one thirsting for it to end. Not that it will, of course. If the Yes side wins more than 40 per cent of the vote (and especially it it takes more than 45 per cent) this thing will rumble on and on. Until, as one nationalist put it to me recently, "we win". As matters stand - which is to say, if the referendum were held tomorrow - Scotland would vote No.