Why Humza Yousaf is the Union’s best hope

After the narrow victory of the Brexit campaign in 2016, it was often said that the result would lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom. Just 38 per cent of Scots voted for Brexit, so Nicola Sturgeon argued that Scotland was being taken out of the EU against its will, necessitating a second Scottish independence referendum. And in Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist party blocked the formation of a new power-sharing administration last year in protest at the Westminster government’s approach to the Brexit Protocol.

Now things look very different. DUP MPs may have voted against the Windsor Framework, but polls suggest that Rishi Sunak’s renegotiated Brexit deal is supported by most Northern Irish voters – just 17 per cent oppose it. Unionist politicians will be under pressure to return to power-sharing in the coming months as trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain becomes easier.

Yet the factor that is giving both Labour and the Tories the biggest cause for optimism about the future of the Union is the election of Humza Yousaf as the new First Minister of Scotland. ‘We only call him by his full name: Humza Useless,’ explains a Labour figure. Conservatives agree. ‘It’s the perfect result,’ says a senior government source. Yousaf’s victory was slim – just 52 per cent of the vote – but instead of trying to unite his party he offered Kate Forbes a big demotion, which she refused, instead resigning from government. The SNP looks deeply split. ‘It’s marvellous,’ says a senior minister.

In the past, nationalists have tended to show a unity that Tories envied. Alex Salmond was the clear favourite in 2004, and Sturgeon’s candidacy in 2014 was uncontested. Now the nationalist movement is fractured. Salmond leads Alba, his own party, and the Scottish electorate has been treated to five weeks of infighting between Yousaf, Forbes and Ash Regan, in which their differences have been on full display.