Yougov

Could Jeremy Corbyn actually win the Labour leadership race? A new poll from The Times/YouGov suggests that he will. The new poll of eligible voters in the leadership contest — party members, registered supporters and affiliated trade unionists — has Corbyn on track to win in the final round of voting with 53 per cent of the vote, with the current bookies’ favourite Andy Burnham trailing six points behind on 47 per cent. The left-wing leadership candidate’s lead on first preferences is even more jaw-dropping. YouGov has Corbyn on 43 per cent, compared to Burnham on 26, Yvette Cooper on 20 and Liz Kendall on 11. Based on this, Kendall would be knocked out in

The polling stations open in under 10 hours and the final opinion polls are out. As we’ve seen throughout this campaign, there’s not much variance at all, with all of the pollsters putting Labour and the Tories tied — or with a small lead within the margin of error. There’s a few still to come and we’ll update the list below as they are released: Ipsos MORI: Conservative 36 per cent, Labour 35 per cent, Ukip 11 per cent, Lib Dem eight per cent, Green five per cent ICM: Labour 35 per cent, Conservative 34 per cent, Ukip 11 per cent, Lib Dem nine per cent, Green four per cent Lord Ashcroft: Conservative 33 per cent, Labour 33 per cent, Ukip 11 per cent, Lib Dem eight per cent,

How much influence will newspapers have in this election? Less than ever before in print, if circulation figures (above) are anything to go by. Yet paranoia remains. On certain days, newspapers do get excited and act like they’re trying to win the election. Today’s Sun digs up that infamous picture of Ed Miliband and urges readers to ‘Save our bacon‘, the Telegraph pictures Nicola Sturgeon with the headline ‘Nightmare on Downing Street‘, while the Mirror leads with ‘Major fail‘ on comments by the former Prime Minister on inequality. Meanwhile, the Times and Mail have followed the Independent and Evening Standard in putting their weight behind a Cameron-led government. The truth, of course,

Two new polls out today have the Tories ahead. Lord Ashcroft’s latest national poll says the Conservatives currently have a six point lead at per cent — up two points from last week — while Labour remains on 30 per cent. Ashcroft has Ukip down slightly to 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent. The Guardian/ICM also put the Tories ahead in their new poll today, putting the Conservatives on 35 per cent and Labour on 32 per cent. It’s worth noting that both the Ashcroft and ICM polls were conducted by telephone. There are two other polls out today, conducted online, which show the

The opinion polls almost veered towards a trend today. ComRes/Daily Mail report in their latest poll that the Conservatives are four points ahead on 36 per cent, while Labour is on 32 per cent. Survation/Daily Mirror also put the Tories four points ahead on 33 per cent and Labour on 29 per cent. Alternatively, the latest YouGov/Sun poll has Labour two points ahead on 35 per cent and Tories on 33 per cent. With two weeks to go till polling day, it’s still very tight and no one has a notable lead. While the Conservative lead in the ComRes and Survation polls edges outside of the margin of error, the movements in these polls are still within three

Three new polls out today have put Labour ahead of the Tories. At a time when the Conservatives are firing all guns at the opposition, Labour appear to be gaining some momentum. According to a new Survation/Daily Mirror poll, Labour is four points ahead on 35 per cent, compared to the Tories on 31 per cent, Ukip on 15, the Lib Dems on nine and the SNP and Greens both on four. Panelbase has conducted an online poll, which suggests Labour has a six-point lead at 37 per cent and the Conservatives are on 31 per cent. TNS has also released a poll which puts Labour ahead by three points

Ed Miliband has long been considered the Conservatives’ main electoral asset. Certainly, Simon Danczuk touched a nerve when he described his party leader as a liability only a fortnight ago. But as the election nears, is the Labour leader beginning to turn his personal fortunes around? Polling from YouGov shows a fascinating trend. Voter approval of Miliband’s performance as Labour leader has improved from a dire state in late-November last year, at net -56%, to the most recent level of -26% last week. With the election campaign underway, a significant chunk of the electorate appear to have given the Labour leader a second look. Indeed, his net approval rating improved by

Ed Miliband’s so-called ‘Paxo bounce’ in the opinion polls is ebbing away. The polls out this evening have the Conservatives either level pegging with Labour or slightly ahead. Tonight’s latest from YouGov/The Sun has both parties neck and neck, with the Conservatives and Labour on 35 per cent — a three point rise for the Tories on Sunday — while Ukip is on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on eight and the Greens on five. In his weekly national poll, Lord Ashcroft has the Tories two points ahead on 36 per cent, up three points from last week. The Tory pollster has Labour on 34 per cent, Ukip on ten, the Lib Dems

Just two weeks ago, senior Conservatives were saying that ‘crossover’ had been reached: that the Tories were ahead in the polls and that the lead would slowly build. Last week, the lead evaporated. Tomorrow, a YouGov/Sunday Times poll puts Labour four points ahead. Cameron’s bizarre pre-resignation on Monday and a rather lacklustre performance in what passed for the television debate on Thursday seems to have had an effect. Sure, they were watched by only 3 million people vs. 10 million for the 2010 debates – but the word gets out. Jeremy Paxman performed very well, Ed Miliband quite well, Cameron less well. And yes, that’s the Cameron already talking about his retirement, as if

Two polls out today have the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck, while another has Labour ahead by two points. Lord Ashcroft’s national poll has the two main parties at 33 per cent — both up on last week — while Ukip is on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on eight and Greens on five. Tonight’s YouGov /Sun poll has a similar outlook, with the Tories and Labour tied on 34 per cent, Ukip on 12, the Lib Dems eight and Greens six. Populus, however, has Labour two points ahead on 33 per cent, putting the Conservatives on 31 per cent, Ukip on 16, the Lib Dems on nine and Greens on five. The polls have moved around a

Another week, another set of polls that put Labour and the Tories on an almost level footing. In his weekly national poll, Lord Ashcroft has the Conservatives two points ahead on 31 per cent — down three points from last week — while Labour are on 29 per cent. Today’s Guardian/ICM poll also has the Conservatives slightly ahead, by one point, while Labour has jumped three points to 35 per cent. But the latest The Sun/YouGov’s poll tonight shows the opposite: this poll has Labour two points ahead of the Tories, who are down to 32 per cent. Another poll from Populus yesterday put the two main parties on 34 per cent

This was a landmark week in this long election campaign. It was the first this year in which two pollsters (YouGov and Lord Ashcroft) each posted a Conservative lead outside of the margin of error. A 4 per cent lead for the blues may not sound like much – but it represents the largest Conservative lead on YouGov in more than three years. Indeed, of the 12 polls published so far this March, Labour have led in just 4 – compared to 27 leads out of 39 throughout February. It may be nothing. But I somehow suspect otherwise. If you said to me following the 2010 election that Ukip would

Are the polls beginning to swing consistently towards the Conservatives? Two polls out yesterday have the Tories ahead by four points. In its latest poll for The Sun, YouGov has the Conservatives on 35 per cent, Labour on 31 per cent, Ukip on 14 per cent, the Lib Dems on eight per cent and the Greens on six per cent. Out of YouGov’s six polls in March so far, Labour has been ahead in one of them. Another last week had the main parties neck and neck while the Tories have been ahead in the others. Lord Ashcroft reported similar results in his latest weekly poll. The Tory peer has the Conservatives on 34 per cent, Labour on 30 per