Us

Afghanistan and the end of the American hegemony

We used to sneer at the way the Russians were chased out of Afghanistan by a ragtag of mujaheddin armed only with Kalashnikovs and American Stinger rockets. No longer.  The last superpower to be defeated in Afghanistan withdrew in good order, having negotiated the arrangements with Kabul and the mujaheddin. They left behind a competent government, and an Afghan army capable of fighting the mujaheddin to a standstill. That government survived as long as the Russians went on supplying food and ammunition. Then the Russian government, close to meltdown, stopped deliveries. The mujaheddin swept to victory and fell straight into a bloody civil war. Many Afghans were relieved when the

Joe Biden’s Republican Convention

Joe Biden’s range of emotional expression has narrowed with age – when he wants to convey feeling now, he shouts. Anger is the only thing that gets through, even when he’s trying to be hopeful or inspiring. And his acceptance remarks at the Democratic convention were well short of inspirational: the nominee didn’t seem tired, but his words did. From the first day of the convention, viewers had to wonder, ‘Why is Joe Biden the nominee of this party?’, a party that neither looks nor sounds like the almost octogenarian ex-VP. Biden has testified to his friendships with segregationists in the Senate. He was the sponsor of a historic anti-crime

The real reason Biden was prepared to let Kabul fall

The speed of the Taliban’s advance, culminating in Sunday’s capture of Kabul, has been widely put forward as proof that Joe Biden was wrong: that his decision to end the 20 year-old Afghan mission was a historic mistake that will blight his presidency. For all that, as he himself has said, he was the fourth president to preside over the war and he would not hand it over to a fifth, he could go down only as the president who lost Afghanistan. Maybe. But is this really how the United States — and allied — flight from Afghanistan will be seen with the benefit of even a little hindsight? Much,

The China challenge has no precedent

The US has never been more worried by the rise of China than it is today. In my Times column today, I mention a new book by Joe Biden’s China director on the National Security Council which sets out why ‘China now poses a challenge unlike any the US has ever faced’. Rush Doshi notes that American hegemony has been based, in considerable part, on its economic might. In the second world war, Germany and Japan combined did not reach 60 per cent of US GDP. Throughout the Cold War, the Soviet Union failed to hit this mark. Yet, China passed it seven years ago. The book sets out how China is attempting

Why the Biden-Putin summit wasn’t a waste of time

The meeting between U.S. president Joe Biden and Russian president Vladimir Putin in Geneva started cordially enough. A quick handshake, toothy smiles for the cameras, and some standard words of diplomacy. ‘I would like to thank you for the initiative to meet today,’ a slouching Putin told an attentive Biden. ‘Still, U.S.-Russian relations have accumulated a lot of issues that require a meeting at the highest level, and I hope that our meeting will be productive.’ Putin’s words were something of an understatement. U.S.-Russia relations are scraping the bottom of the barrel and may very well be at their lowest point since the early 1980s, when Washington and Moscow were turning Europe into

Can Biden bring relations with Russia back from the brink?

Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov delivered a depressing assessment on the state of U.S.-Russia relations earlier this month. While holding out a sliver of hope that ties between Washington and Moscow could improve, Lavrov said ‘the confrontation has hit the bottom’. His remarks came a fortnight after U.S. president Joe Biden and Russian president Vladimir Putin scolded one another like two children in the schoolyard, with the former calling Putin ‘a killer‘ and the latter hinting that Biden may be suffering from ill health. Relations, in turns out, weren’t at the bottom as Lavrov thought.  We know this because the dynamics between the U.S. and Russia have only gotten worse in the

Iran’s missile diplomacy

It’s a time for delivering messages in the Middle East, where messages rarely come without their near constant attendant: violence. On Monday night a volley of rockets struck a base hosting US troops in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan. International media reported that one rocket landed in the base and another on residential areas nearby; one civilian contractor was reportedly killed, and six others were wounded, including a US service member. At least five Iraqi civilians were also injured, with one in a critical condition. The militia group Saraya Awliyah al-Dam has claimed responsibility for Monday’s attack. The group remains, superficially at least, a mystery. It proclaims no overt

What Brexit Britain can really expect from Biden

Joe Biden is both an exceptionally lucky and unlucky politician. It would have been easy to write off the former vice president a few years ago. Yet here he is, the oldest person to assume the office, albeit becoming president at perhaps the country’s (and entire planet’s) darkest hour since World War II. So what can we really expect from him? And is his arrival really bad news for Brexit Britain? Unlike Trump, Biden is less keen to talk up the ‘special relationship’ with Britain. But this might not be all bad news for Britain after Brexit. Biden has said little about Britain’s departure from the EU, but he has been clear

What will Joe Biden do about North Korea?

Kim Jong-un marked the new year by treating North Koreans to several days of lengthy speeches followed by a display of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. Behind this show of power lies a truth that Jong-un and his country faces a series of unprecedented challenges this year. Sanctions continue to bite and, combined with the coronavirus pandemic, the North Korean economy remains paralysed. Yet this doesn’t mean the task for Joe Biden in dealing with a problem like North Korea will be easy: in fact, with domestic problems exacerbating, it will make Biden’s task even harder. In 2018, the North Korean leader set out a ‘new strategic line’. In

Has Trump’s Covid-19 response really been so dire?

The sight of Donald Trump fumbling with charts during his interview on HBO this Monday has provided much ammunition for his enemies. The words ‘train wreck’ and ‘toe-curling’ have been used multiple times to describe how the President insisted that the US has one of the lowest death rates from Covid-19, while interviewer Jonathan Swan quoted figures suggesting the US has one of the worst rates. True, Trump looked ill-prepared, but was he fibbing, as many of his critics have implied? America cannot claim to have a lower death rate than comparable western countries – but neither does it come out especially badly The truth lies somewhere between what Trump

The West is failing to rise to the challenge of coronavirus

Having apparently shaken off the first phase of the coronavirus pandemic, the Chinese Communist Party’s propaganda machine is now in full swing. One of the more preposterous conspiracy theories they are peddling is that the spread of the disease was a deliberate attempt at subterfuge from the American government. As in the middle of the tragic Aids epidemic in the 1980s, geopolitical conspiracy theories are running rife, and overwhelmed national governments are desperate to find someone to blame for the crisis. The notion that the United States somehow contrived to unleash such a contagious and pernicious virus on its economic rival, however, is simply absurd. In a globalised world, with

Donald Trump’s coronavirus flight ban shows he is out of ideas

The United States, and indeed the rest of the world, is going through the worst public health pandemic in living memory. Entire countries are closing their doors to new travellers; shutting themselves down until further notice. The NBA (National Basketball Association) has postponed the rest of the season due to the coronavirus outbreak. America’s health care system is in significant danger of being overrun, overextended, and unprepared for the stream of infected patients. Americans at risk of contracting the virus are not getting tested fast enough because testing kits aren’t widely available. Panic is beginning to settle in; walk to the corner grocery store and you will find empty hygiene

Bye bye Bloomberg

‘I’m a believer in using data to inform decisions,’ Michael Bloomberg said in a statement as he ended his campaign. ‘After yesterday’s results, the delegate math has become virtually impossible – and a viable path to the nomination no longer exists.’ And like that, he’s gone. Perhaps the most extraordinary story of the 2020 campaign so far, Michael Bloomberg’s candidacy, has ended. He seemed to have it all: unlimited funds, vast amounts of data, all the political consultants money could buy. But he’s had to give in and endorse Joe Biden, accepting that the former vice president is a much more attractive candidate to voters. Bloomberg didn’t even follow the ‘how

Trump’s State of the Union was a perfect chance to gloat at Democrats

President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address began with a snub to Speaker Nancy Pelosi as she extended her hand across the dais for the customary greeting. It ended with a visibly annoyed Pelosi ripping the copy of her speech and slamming it down on the table. And those were the boring parts of the event. Trump, the reality television expert, turned the hour-and-a-half long address into, well, a reality show. He gave a young schoolgirl a scholarship, surprised conservative radio personality Rush Limbaugh with the presidential medal of freedom, and shocked a wife and her two children when her military-clad husband emerged from the darkness and hugged her

The Democrats’ Iowa shambles is a delight for Donald Trump

Voters in Iowa lined up in high-school gymnasiums across the state last night to prepare for a long few hours of caucusing. But nobody predicted the process would stretch late into the night without a single vote having been certified by the Iowa Democratic party. By midnight, the rival campaigns were flummoxed, unable to officially declare victory but nonetheless determined to spin the night in glowing terms. Caucuses can be chaotic. But the events last night were nothing short of bedlam. Rumour has it that national frontrunner Joe Biden had a terrible showing, but that didn’t stop the former vice president from rallying the troops and pretending everything was OK.

Mike Pompeo: the UK will be ‘front of the line’ for a trade deal

Given how hard Washington had been lobbying the UK government against allowing Huawei to have any role in the UK’s 5G network, there was a certain nervousness in Whitehall about the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to London this week. But judging by Pompeo’s appearance with Dominic Raab at Policy Exchange there was no need to worry. Pompeo declared that the UK/US relationship was in a ‘fantastic place’. He largely pulled his punches on Huawei. He emphasised the US’s view that the ‘Chinese Communist Party is the central threat of our times’ but he implied the US thought the UK’s eventual plan was to move away from Huawei

Bloomberg is the only Democrat who can take on Trump

To paraphrase Shakespeare, the whirligig of time brings in… more whirligigs. Four years ago, few people thought that Donald Trump had a real prospect of becoming President of the United States. There were suggestions that Mr Trump himself did not take his chances too seriously. He might have seen the campaign as a way of boosting his ego as well as obtaining free advertising for his hotels and other business ventures; he did not spend much of his own money. Then, stuff happened – in particular, Hillary Clinton. Mrs Clinton is able. She is experienced. There is only one problem. She is dislikeable. Moreover, she and her family give sleaze