Us politics

Are we on the verge of war with Iran? The Guardian’s frontpage today suggests we might well be. Here’s a taster of the article: “Britain’s armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern about Tehran’s nuclear enrichment programme, the Guardian has learned. The Ministry of Defence believes the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities. British officials say that if Washington presses ahead it will seek, and receive, UK military help for any mission, despite some deep reservations within the coalition government. In anticipation of a potential attack, British military planners are examining

Just a few months ago, Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign looked like it was in its death throes. His poll ratings were in free fall after his criticism of fellow Republican Paul Ryan’s plan to reform Medicare as “right-wing social engineering”, and his top staff had quit en masse. But somehow, Gingrich has managed to gradually rebuild his campaign and rehabilitate himself in the eyes of Republican voters. The chart below shows how Republican’s views of Gingrich have changed over the course of the campaign. You can clearly see his ratings sliding in May-June, but then recovering slowly since July. Although they’ve levelled off in the last couple of weeks, they’re

Herman Cain – the former CEO of Godfather’s pizza – has gone from virtual unknown to frontrunner in a matter of months. In both of the national polls realeased this week, he leads Mitt Romney by four points. Gallup’s favourability ratings are a good way of tracking the popularity of the candidates. The chart below provides a pretty good illustration of the race so far. It shows Perry’s quick rise when he entered the race in August, and his even quicker fall following his first debates in September. You can also see Cain’s gradual rise after that strong debate performance in May, and his much steeper rise in the past month.

It’s been quite a week for Republicans deciding they’re not interested in entering the White House in 2013. First, Christie closed the door on a presidential bid on Tuesday. Last night, Sarah Palin followed suit, saying: “After much prayer and serious consideration, I have decided that I will not be seeking the 2012 GOP nomination for President of the United States… My decision is based upon a review of what common sense Conservatives and Independents have accomplished, especially over the last year. I believe that at this time I can be more effective in a decisive role to help elect other true public servants to office – from the nation’s

A couple of weeks ago Mitt Romney used Winston Churchill – or his bust, at least – to attack Obama. This week, he used the former Prime Minister to defend his flip-flopping. Or at least, he thought he did. Here’s what he told a town hall in New Hampshire on Wednesday: ‘In the private sector, if you don’t change your view when the facts change, well you’ll get fired for being stubborn and stupid. Winston Chuchill said, “When the facts change, I change too, Madam”.’ Unfortunately, as NBC have pointed out, the line wasn’t Churchill’s at all. It is usually attributed to John Maynard Keynes, but even that may be aprocryphal. So

Just over six weeks into his Presidential campaign, the sheen is coming off Rick Perry. Having entered the race as the favourite, he quickly established a double-digit lead over the rest of the Republican field. But now, especially after the candidates’ latest debate last week, the momentum has shifted. Here, to illustrate Perry’s fall, is yesterday’s Fox News poll, compared to their previous one, conducted a month ago: As you can see, the drop in support for Perry has not led to much of an increase for his main rival, Mitt Romney. Instead, the biggest beneficiary has been Herman Cain, who has leapt from 6 per cent a month ago