Us politics

It’s less than a month until the Iowa caucuses, the first big vote of the presidential primaries. It could finish off some candidates who’ve been shuffled to the bottom of the pack, and give us a better idea of the chances of those at the top.   Right now, Newt Gingrich looks most likely to be celebrating on January 3rd. As Fraser suggested last weekend, he seems to be gaining most from Herman Cain’s withdrawal, and now leads the field both nationally and in Iowa. An average of the five polls from the past week, and reallocating Cain’s voters to their second choice candidate, reveals an 11-point lead for Gingrich:  

Herman Cain has just ‘suspended‘ his campaign for the Republican nomination; the allegations about his private life have become too great. Early reports suggest that his supporters are rallying behind Newt Gingrich, who has become the latest ‘stop Romney’ candidate: all of the Republican wannabes pretty much get a turn at this title. Cain has never held elected office, so never really had the press pack scrutinising his background. I suspect even he’s amazed at what came out of the wash. It has emerged that the National Restaurant Association settled with two women who claimed he harassed them while he was its president. Another woman has told AP that he

Rick Perry’s doing his best to turn his excurciating “oops” moment last night to his advantage. Alex said it was the end of his campaign, but Perry certainly doesn’t see it that way. On NBC’s Today show, he quipped: ‘There are so many agencies out there, that I’m like many Americans and we would like to forget that the Department of Energy is one of those.’ And his campaign has just sent this email out to his supporters: It’s a commendable, if likely futile, attempt. Hat tip: Politico.

Are we on the verge of war with Iran? The Guardian’s frontpage today suggests we might well be. Here’s a taster of the article: “Britain’s armed forces are stepping up their contingency planning for potential military action against Iran amid mounting concern about Tehran’s nuclear enrichment programme, the Guardian has learned. The Ministry of Defence believes the US may decide to fast-forward plans for targeted missile strikes at some key Iranian facilities. British officials say that if Washington presses ahead it will seek, and receive, UK military help for any mission, despite some deep reservations within the coalition government. In anticipation of a potential attack, British military planners are examining

Just a few months ago, Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign looked like it was in its death throes. His poll ratings were in free fall after his criticism of fellow Republican Paul Ryan’s plan to reform Medicare as “right-wing social engineering”, and his top staff had quit en masse. But somehow, Gingrich has managed to gradually rebuild his campaign and rehabilitate himself in the eyes of Republican voters. The chart below shows how Republican’s views of Gingrich have changed over the course of the campaign. You can clearly see his ratings sliding in May-June, but then recovering slowly since July. Although they’ve levelled off in the last couple of weeks, they’re

Herman Cain – the former CEO of Godfather’s pizza – has gone from virtual unknown to frontrunner in a matter of months. In both of the national polls realeased this week, he leads Mitt Romney by four points. Gallup’s favourability ratings are a good way of tracking the popularity of the candidates. The chart below provides a pretty good illustration of the race so far. It shows Perry’s quick rise when he entered the race in August, and his even quicker fall following his first debates in September. You can also see Cain’s gradual rise after that strong debate performance in May, and his much steeper rise in the past month.