Us politics

Iowa’s losers

Back in September, Rick Perry was the betting favourite to win both the Iowa caucus and the Republican nomination. Instead, he scored just 10 per cent of the vote last night, leaving him down in fifth place. This disappointing result may well be the final nail in the coffin of Perry’s campaign, and last night he certainly sounded like a candidate at the end of the line: ‘With the voters’ decision tonight in Iowa, I’ve decided to return to Texas, assess the results of tonight’s caucus, determine whether there is a path forward for myself in this race… With a little prayer and a little reflection, I’m going to decide

James Forsyth

Romney’s faltering first step towards the nomination

Mitt Romney’s victory by eight votes in Iowa is hardly a ringing endorsement of his candidacy. But, I suspect, he will be the nominee. The real danger for Romney was a repeat of his 2008 failure in Iowa. He has avoided that. He now heads for New Hampshire where he has a massive poll lead. A commanding victory there will give him the big mo to get through South Carolina, an inhospitable state for him, and head into Florida, a banker for him, in a strong position. Rick Santorum, who broke from the back of pack at just the right moment and came so close to upsetting Romney, will now

Fraser Nelson

Romney by eight votes

Instead of white smoke, Iowa is belching thick fog. Mitt Romney has won by, erm, eight votes. At least so we think, the Republicans say that it has to wait until ‘Certified Form E’ will be returned by all the Iowa counties, which will take two weeks, so this gossamer majority may well vanish. Already some votes have been lost, others miscounted, so I doubt Romney will be doing much of a victory dance today. Iowa’s indecision is final. He has won by a majority of 0.0065 percentage points. It’s pretty good for the man who almost beat him, Rick Santorum, who won 30,007 votes to Romney’s 30,015. And Santorum

Fraser Nelson

Iowa’s dead heat

If you’ve just woken up, hoping to find out who won the Iowa caucus, then tough luck: they have lost the votes from two of the main counties, and Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are neck-in-neck on 25 per cent of the votes. Ron Paul has 21 per cent. As of 6am, there are reports that precincts have miscounted votes in a way that penalised Romney – but you don’t do recounts in a caucus. Some 122,106 votes have been counted and Romney and Santorum are just four votes apart. Even if Romney wins when the lost votes have been discovered, the closeness and farce of the lost/miscounted votes will

Goading in the Gulf

The year has begun with Iran and the United States circling each other in the Straits of Hormuz; like two boxers before a bout, seeing who will strike first and working out where a blow could land. The immediate cause has been Iranian manoeuvres in the Arabian Gulf, and a visit to the area by the American aircraft carrier USS John C Stennis. Iran’s army chief has said that his country will take action if a US aircraft carrier returns to the Gulf. Oil prices have shot up as a result. This could be the worst time to goad a Democratic president facing pressure from those Republicans currently trying ‘out

What to expect in Iowa

Tonight, caucus-goers in Iowa will deliver their verdict on this year’s Republican candidates for President. Above are Nate Silver’s latest poll-based projections of the result, showing three candidates with a decent chance of victory: Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum. Santorum, who has surged in Iowa over the past week following endorsements from influential social conservatives Bob Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley, could win tonight despite not having led a single poll. Which candidate prevails will depend largely on turnout. Like Obama four years ago, Paul’s hopes lie with those who would not usually vote in the Republican caucuses: Independents, Democrats and young people. But, also like Obama four

James Forsyth

Tonight in Iowa

One of the things that makes the Iowa caucuses so different from most elections is that it is almost the opposite of a secret ballot. Four years ago I went to report on a caucus in suburban Des Moines. As soon as voters entered the school sports hall in which it was taking place, they had to go and stand in the corner of their candidate. There then followed a quite remarkable period where people tried to get their friends and neighbours to come over to their corner. Everyone was clocking who everyone else was voting for. This gives the caucuses a very different dynamic than other elections. Tonight in

Will Israel bomb a near-nuclear Iran in 2012?

An Israeli strike on Iran has to be the most over-predicted event of recent years. It was meant to happen last year. And the year before that. But now there are reasons why 2012 could, indeed, be the year when Israel will find it propitious to take overt military action against Iran’s nuclear programme. (Everyone assumes that a range of covert activities, from assassinations to cyber attacks, are already ongoing). The Iranian government is moving closer to having the requisite capabilities, and can reasonably be expected to take the final steps towards nuclearisation. What better way for Tehran to distract attention from their burgeoning problems — including sanctions, economic hardship,

Freddy Gray

Saint Obama? Not quite…

Will 2012 be a good year for Barack Obama? His job approval ratings reached a six-month high this week on the back of news that had he had secured a payroll tax cut for American workers. He’s also benefitting from the conclusion of the Iraq war and the fact that, with next week’s Iowa caucuses fast approaching, his Republican opponents look hopeless. Obama’s populist re-election message, in which he says, in effect, that he is the good guy and it is only the filthy Republicans and the corrupt Washington system holding him back, seems to be working. But should it? In this week’s Spectator, I ask whether the Obama administration

Stopping Maliki’s coup

The year is ending not with a successful US withdrawal from Iraq — as President Barack Obama claims — but with what amounts to a coup d’etat by the country’s Shiite prime minister (and former ally of the US) Nouri al-Maliki. Less than 24 hours after the last US soldier left Iraq, the country’s Sunni vice-president Tareq al-Hashemi was wanted on charges that he led death squads, in a case most observers think could reignite the sectarian slaughter of 2006-07. Violence in Iraq has subsided since 2006-07, when Sunni insurgents and Shiite militiamen killed thousands of civilians each month — but, without U.S. troops to act as a buffer, many

Why ‘starving the beast’ may not work

Steven F. Hayward’s audit of the state of American conservatism, which David Brooks judges to be one of the best magazine articles of the year, argues that the Reaganite ‘starve the beast strategy’ has failed to halt the growth of government. Hayward writes: ‘Thirty years after the arrival of the Reagan Revolution, government is bigger than ever. The Reagan years appear to have been little more than a mild speed bump in the progress of ever-larger government. The regulatory state advances relentlessly on every front. The soaring national debt threatens economic oblivion sooner or later. In short, the Reagan era, for all that was accomplished, was not an analogue to

Ron Paul now favourite to win in Iowa

Hardly anyone would’ve predicted it just a few weeks ago, but libertarian congressman Ron Paul now looks most likely to win the Iowa caucuses, with just a fortnight to go. Two new polls show Paul leading Mitt Romney, as Newt Gingrich collapses to third – or even fourth – place. According to Nate Silver’s projections (based on the polls and historical results), Paul now has a 52 per cent chance of winning, compared to Romney’s 28 per cent chance, Gingrich’s 8 per cent and Rick Perry’s 7 per cent. Paul has taken the lead largely thanks to a sharp decline in Gingrich’s poll numbers. Nationally, his lead over Romney has

Romney stretches his lead in endorsements

He may be trailing Newt Gingrich in the national polls, but there’s one metric by which Mitt Romney is dominating the 2012 Republican field: endorsements. He’s already bagged the two biggest ones announced so far: Chris Christie and Tim Pawlenty. He also has the backing of several key Republicans in New Hampshire, including current Senator Kelly Ayotte and two former Governors. And yesterday he added another big name from another early state to his list: South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley. Haley’s support for Romney is not wholly unexpected: she backed him in 2008 and he endorsed her early in her campaign for Governor last year. It is significant, though: a

Romney’s $10,000 mistake

video platformvideo managementvideo solutionsvideo player This was, by some margin, the most talked about moment of Saturday night’s Republican debate. Accused by Rick Perry of changing a passage in his book advocating an individual health care mandate, Mitt Romney stretched out his hand to the Texas Governor and said ‘I’ll tell you what, ten thousand bucks? Ten thousand dollar bet?’ For Romney’s opponents, the bizarre challenge provided the perfect clip with which to attack him. It combines Romney’s biggest negatives into one neat sound bite: his record on healthcare, his flip-flopping, and the idea that he’s an out-of-touch Wall Street millionaire. And, just as when Perry got a rise out

Bookends: Saving JFK

Stephen King’s latest novel is a time-travel fantasy about the assassination of John F. Kennedy. At almost 750 pages, 11.22.63 is drawn-out even by blockbuster standards. Critics have bemoaned its surfeit of period detail (bobby socks, Hula Hoops, big-finned cars). I rather enjoyed it. King, now an august-looking 64, is a writer of towering cleverness, whose fiction manages to appeal to a reading public both popular and serious. Much of what passes these days for literary fiction is mere creative writing. Give me genre fiction (John le Carré, Martin Cruz Smith) any day. A fiction without a story — Kings knows — is scarcely worth its weight in paper. Before

Four weeks to Iowa, and Newt’s looking strong

It’s less than a month until the Iowa caucuses, the first big vote of the presidential primaries. It could finish off some candidates who’ve been shuffled to the bottom of the pack, and give us a better idea of the chances of those at the top.   Right now, Newt Gingrich looks most likely to be celebrating on January 3rd. As Fraser suggested last weekend, he seems to be gaining most from Herman Cain’s withdrawal, and now leads the field both nationally and in Iowa. An average of the five polls from the past week, and reallocating Cain’s voters to their second choice candidate, reveals an 11-point lead for Gingrich:  

Cain quits, Newt benefits?

Herman Cain has just ‘suspended‘ his campaign for the Republican nomination; the allegations about his private life have become too great. Early reports suggest that his supporters are rallying behind Newt Gingrich, who has become the latest ‘stop Romney’ candidate: all of the Republican wannabes pretty much get a turn at this title. Cain has never held elected office, so never really had the press pack scrutinising his background. I suspect even he’s amazed at what came out of the wash. It has emerged that the National Restaurant Association settled with two women who claimed he harassed them while he was its president. Another woman has told AP that he

From the archives: The Great Communicator stumbles

It’s been 25 years since the Iran-Contra affair – the scandal about the US government selling arms to Iran and using the proceeds to fund the Nicaraguan rebels. It saw Ronald Reagan’s approval rating drop from 67 per cent to 46 per cent, and fourteen memebers of his staff were indicted. In a piece that appeared in The Spectator exactly a quarter of a century ago, Christopher Hitchens explains how the Reagan administration was unable to contain the story. The end of the line, Christopher Hitchens, 29 November 1986 If you wish to understand the fire that has broken out in the Washington zoo, and penetrate beyond the mere lowing

‘What’s that line again?’

When Rick Perry made that horrible gaffe in a Republican debate last month, you might have expected to see it in one of his opponents’ ads. Instead, it’s Perry himself who’s just put out a video poking fun at his mistake: ‘If you want a slick debater, I’m obviously not your guy.’ Indeed. We’ll have to wait and see if this sort of thing helps Perry recover from just 4 per cent in the polls.