Us politics

The really curious thing about this year’s US presidential election is that it looks set to defy all political forecasts. While the most respected political science models have predicted victory for Mitt Romney, polls have consistently suggested otherwise. Political science and predictive models seldom receive much attention in the UK but they enjoy a strong tradition in the US. And they normally get it right. Most spectacularly, the University of Colorado’s forecasting model in 2000 successfully predicted that Al Gore would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. Since its inception in 1980, the University of Colorado’s forecasting model has successfully predicted the results of the last eight

It’s no surprise that John McCain gave a shriveled, bitter, small speech at the Republican convention during which he inadvertently confirmed that the electorate – boobs, nitwits, rubes and all – were quite right to deny him the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. More war, all war, war everywhere was, alas, all McCain had to say. He is a man diminished in every way and it is a sad business to see him so. More surprising – and pleasingly so – was Condoleezza Rice’s return to form. She gave the best speech of the convention thus far. That this may be a low bar does not mean it’s not one

Ever since Mitt Romney named Paul Ryan as his running mate, the UK media has raced to portray him as a fiscal Sarah Palin and suggest that he advocates extremist policies. If anyone wants to find out for themselves, and learn about his policies and ideas, where do they start? Here is an introduction to one of the most interesting and intellectually substantial figures in American politics. Background Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan said a lot about the direction of the Presidential election campaign. It disappointed conservatives who wanted Romney to select a VP candidate based on identity politics, or to keep the campaign a referendum on Obama. But it was a triumph for those of us

It’s coming up fast: there are now just three months to go to Election Day in the United States. And right now, Barack Obama’s looking a good bet — although certainly not a safe one — for re-election. The forecasting model designed by the New York Times’s Nate Silver — which accounts for both polls and economic data — currently puts Obama’s chances of victory at 72.4 per cent, his strongest position so far. Interestingly, though, Obama’s lead in the polls is not all that big. Silver’s model, which includes national and state-level polls and takes into account the house effects of each pollster as well as the difference between polls

They may have failed to install one of their candidates as the Republican’s presidential nominee, but the Tea Party is having better luck in other elections. Last night, Ted Cruz — backed by Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul — beat Lieutenant Governor David Dewhurst 57-43 in the Republican primary for Texas’s senate election in November. Despite being outspent nearly three-to-one, Cruz — who has never run for office before — achieved a remarkable turnaround. In the first round of the primary just nine weeks ago, Dewhurst beat him 45-34 (as neither got more than 50 per cent it went down to last night’s run-off). In the second round,