Ukraine

Friday

Alex Massie

The clock is ticking for Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. He has missed his best chance of victory.

Tick tock. Tick tock. Time is running out in the Ukraine. Time passes and cements the “facts on the ground”. Russia controls the Crimea and, one way or another, we should probably expect the province’s referendum to endorse a return to Moscow Centre. Whether Crimea’s plebiscite can or will be conducted honestly is a different matter but that, in the end, is not the most important issue. Indeed the fate and future of Crimea is, if hardly an irrelevance, a question of secondary importance. It is not the major front in this struggle. Russia’s actions in the Crimea are plainly illegal and unjustified but they were supposed to be the

Thursday

Matthew Parris

Leave Ukraine to the Russians

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/Untitled_2_AAC_audio.mp3″ title=”Matthew Parris and Anne Applebaum debate the Ukraine situation”] Listen [/audioplayer]‘You can’t always get what you want,’ chorused Mick Jagger, ‘but if you try some time/You just might find/You get what you need.’ The danger with Ukraine is that the western powers will get what they want, not what we need. I write this as one who has travelled in Ukraine, loved the country and seen that its people (though poor) are talented and energetic. Any reference I make to basket cases refers to the Ukrainian state, not the country’s human resources. What we say we want is for Russia to withdraw from Crimea and turn away from

The Spectator

Where to open your brothel: an international comparison

The best places to open a brothel The Commons all-party group on prostitution has called for a Scandinavian-style law where selling sex would not be illegal but buying it would be. How does the world treat prostitution? — In a survey of 100 countries by the educational charity ProCon, 50 were judged to treat prostitution as illegal, 39 as legal, with the remaining 11 making it an offence in some instances. — Among the most liberal were Canada, where laws against brothel ownership and pimping were recently overturned by the supreme court, the Netherlands, Germany, New Zealand and Greece. — The most severe criminal sanctions were found in Iran, where

Molly Guinness

The Spectator: on 150 years of punishing Russia

Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine has left western diplomats scrabbling for sanctions that won’t backfire on to the rest of Europe and America. The foreign secretary William Hague said Russia must ‘face consequences and costs’. When a policy paper was photographed that said the UK should not support trade sanctions or close London’s financial centre to Russians, Mr Hague said it did not reflect government policy. But punishing Russia is sure to be an expensive business. Just before the Crimean War, when Russia invaded Turkish Moldovia and Wallachia in 1853, a Spectator editorial took a hard line; Russia should be punished on principle. The present operations of Russia proceed entirely

Sebastian Payne

Podcast: Ukraine special, with Matthew Parris, Anne Applebaum and John O’Sullivan

Should we leave Ukraine to the Russians? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, Matthew Parris debates Anne Applebaum on whether the crisis should concern Britain and whether Vladimir Putin has valid reasons to intervening in Crimea. Would Putin have acted differently if Ukraine had NATO membership? What should America do now? And will the West’s behaviour so far embolden other dictators? John O’Sullivan also discusses his Spectator cover feature this week on why we shouldn’t be afraid of Putin. With a lack of actions from the West, is it game, set and match to Putin? Why is he perceived to be so strong? Is John Kerry a dying breed of Americans who really care about Europe?

Martin Vander Weyer Martin Vander Weyer

Any other business: Britain’s chaotic energy policy puts us in Putin’s hands

To have written last month that the headline ‘Kiev in flames’ looked like a black swan on the economic horizon hardly makes me Nostradamus — but sure enough, the tension between Russia and Ukraine have caused stock markets to quiver and the price of UK gas for one-month delivery on the ICE Europe futures exchange in London to rise 10 per cent on Monday. But it was more impressively far-sighted that way back in the winter of 2005/6 we commissioned a Spectator cover showing wicked Vladimir Putin sitting astride a knotted gas pipeline: one sixth of all gas consumed in Europe arrives from Russia across the Ukraine, and another sixth

Wednesday

James Forsyth

PMQs: Cameron won’t commit to travel restrictions on the Russian elite

Six questions from Ed Miliband on Ukraine resulted in a calmer, more discursive PMQs than normal. Though I suspect that the headlines will be grabbed by Samantha Cameron’s presence in the chamber. In response to Miliband’s questions, Cameron indicated that he expected to boycott the G8 meeting in Russia saying that it was ‘hard to see how a G8 meeting could take place in these circumstances.’ Miliband tried to move Cameron towards a tougher line on travel restrictions on the Russian elite, but Cameron side-stepped the question. listen to ‘PMQs: Cameron and Miliband on Ukraine’ on Audioboo

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Vladimir Putin is losing the battle for Ukraine

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/Untitled_2_AAC_audio.mp3″ title=”Anne Applebaum and Matthew Parris debate how far we should let Russia push” startat=81] Listen [/audioplayer]It is always tempting, in the field of foreign affairs, to suppose we are led by dupes and fools while our opponents enjoy – or endure –  leaders of boundless cunning. We are over-matched; they are playing three-dimensional chess. We are weak, they are strong. We are easily distracted, they are single-minded. We compromise, they are implacable. It is easy to over-estimate the opposition while under-estimating our own capabilities. Sometimes this has unfortunate consequences. Saddam Hussein, for instance, had to be hiding something. The Iraqi dictator – notoriously full of dark cunning – would not be

Patrick Allitt

How America’s shale gas revolution makes Putin ever weaker

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/Untitled_2_AAC_audio.mp3″ title=”Anne Applebaum and Matthew Parris debate the Ukraine-Russia situation”] Listen [/audioplayer]Once or twice every century something good happens to Russia, but then another long night of suffering closes over the great Asian wastes. In 1917, the Russians managed to overthrow their hated Czar and proclaim a democracy. It only lasted a few months before being swept away by a much worse autocracy, which stayed in power until 1991. The sudden prospect of post-Soviet freedom was accompanied by the promise of long-delayed prosperity, as the liberated nation began to develop its vast resources, one of which was natural gas. For a few years, Putin’s Russia dominated the international natural

Sebastian Payne

Ukraine polling: EU vs Russian integration and who is the weakest leader?

It’s difficult to figure out exactly what’s going on in Ukraine and what it all means — as Freddy has pointed out there’s a lot of hyperbole at the moment— but where is public opinion on the current situation? There’s some interesting historic polling on where Ukrainians stand on more integration with Europe vs Russia. Ukraine’s ambassador to the European Union Kostyantyn Yeliseyev suggested in 2011 that business tycoons and politicians from the Russian-speaking Eastern regions are just as on board with more EU integration as those from western regions. Yeliseyev noted at the time ‘if any politician today in Ukraine declared himself to be against European integration, he would

Tuesday

Freddy Gray

Ten handy phrases for bluffing your way through the Ukraine crisis

First published in 2014, this bluffer’s guide may still help you feel like Chatham House’s finest at your next dinner party… We’re all journalists now, apparently, so when a major foreign policy crisis comes along it is important to be prepared. Everyone must learn the art of winging it as the big news breaks. That’s not easy these days. What with Wikipedia on every mobile phone, our understanding of international relations can be called into question at any moment. So here, as a beginner’s guide, are ten handy phrases for bluffing your way through a conversation about the situation in Ukraine: ‘It’s simplistic to think in terms of east versus west

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

William Hague insists government’s options remain open on Ukraine

It was clear from William Hague’s statement in the Commons just now that no decisions have been taken on what to do about Ukraine. The Foreign Secretary had already distanced himself from that photographed document when he faced MPs at Foreign Office Questions a little earlier this morning, saying that it didn’t necessarily reflect the action the government would take. The government’s options ‘remain open’, he said. It’s worth considering Labour’s response to the situation. Douglas Alexander struck a consensual tone when he responded at Foreign Office Questions, but some of his colleagues including Kevin Brennan were quite keen to tease out a response to the tweets over the weekend

Ed West Ed West

How many people would lay down their lives for the European Union?

Whatever Russia does in the Ukraine, we know that Britain isn’t going to do much more than say ‘dear, dear’, something that was accidentally revealed when a British official was photographed bringing a document to Downing St stating as much. We’re not going to help for a number of reasons, one of which is that Ukraine is incredibly complicated and historically and psychologically is sort of a part of Russia, or at least the eastern half is. As for the Crimea, Russia certainly has as much right to that province as the Albanians have to Kosovo. Russia is a great power with legitimate claims to that region, and unlike Iraq,

Monday

Isabel Hardman

The challenge of challenging Putin

How does the West challenge Vladimir Putin? James explained in his blog earlier that it is essential that the Russian president is challenged. But this evening’s snap by the ever-watchful Steve Back of a government document stating that the UK ‘should not support for now trade sanctions… or close London’s financial centre to Russians’ shows the difficulty countries including Britain will have in doing that challenging. The UK worries about the impact of sanctions on London, which as the ‘capital city of the world’, has an interest in keeping its doors open to Russian money. Meanwhile, as a country that relies so much on Russian gas and oil, Germany worries

James Forsyth James Forsyth

If left unchallenged, Putin will attempt to create a new Russian empire

In Ukraine, the West has played—quite disastrously—into Vladimir Putin’s hands. The mistakes go back almost a decade. But the most recent one occurred when protesters took to the streets to oppose the Yanukovych government. The West, by which I mean Nato and the European Union, should have made clear that whatever sympathies they had with the protesters’ aims, the right way to change the government was by the ballot box. The failure to do that has provided Putin with the pretext he needed to have Russian forces seize control of Crimea. Putin’s motivating factor is his desire to avenge, what he sees as, the humiliation of Russia at the end

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Ukraine: Number 10 focuses on de-escalation of tensions

David Cameron spoke to UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon today before the meeting of the National Security Council. The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said the pair ‘agreed it’s important that the Russian government enter into discussion with the Ukrainian government on how to reduce tensions in the region and de-escalate the situation’. The spokesman repeatedly emphasised that ‘de-escalation’ was a key part of the international response to the situation at present, suggesting that it was as important as the threat of costs to Russia. He said: ‘The way I would characterise things is that… the international community is clear that there will be what the Foreign Secretary is talking about

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

William Hague: Ukraine is the biggest crisis in Europe in the 21st Century

You couldn’t accuse William Hague of using soft language on the Today programme this morning when he said that ‘it is certainly the biggest crisis in Europe in the 21st Century and it will require all our diplomatic efforts, but also a great deal of strength in the western world in order to deal with this satisfactorily’. He urged Russia to ‘return to that situation, to being in its bases, to having its assets in Crimea’ while recognising the ‘sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine’. listen to ‘Hague: ‘No justification’ for Russian action in Ukraine’ on Audioboo But what will the international community do, other than use strong language that

Sunday

Rod Liddle

What exactly should the West do in Ukraine?

I’ve seen and read an awful lot of criticism about how weak and pathetic the West has been in responding to the developing crisis in the Ukraine, but scarcely a single word offering advice as to what it SHOULD do. It may well be that making vague threats about the Sochi G8 Summit and a few muttered threats of economic ‘isolation’, whatever that is, may fall a little short of say, Operation Barbarossa as a statement of intent. But none of the pundits I have read come close to suggesting that the West should take any form of military action (or ‘World War Three’, as it used to be known),

Igor Toronyi-Lalic

Culture House comes out in support of Crimean secession (on flag design grounds)

With a grim global tit-for-tat looking increasingly likely, Crimean secession is no laughing matter. Still, we here at Culture House have slightly different priorities to the people of Ukraine. Slaves to line, form and colour, we have our thoughts locked onto the thrilling prospect of gaining a splendid new flag (see above). Here are some more secessionist movements who, on design grounds alone, deserve to be granted a seat at the UN (or at the very least an internship at Wallpaper): 1. Nagorno-Karabakh (part of Azerbaijan) Pac-man! Stop! You’re eating the flag of Armenia! 2.  Sindhudesh (part of Pakistan)  Oh, hey, axe-wielding people. 3. Zulia State (part of Venezuala) Nothing says

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Where are Barack Obama’s ‘red lines’ in Crimea?

When Barack Obama warned Vladimir Putin that “there will be costs” for violating Ukrainian sovereignty, I doubt the Kremlin worried too much. The Syria crisis taught is all about Obama and his ‘red lines’. This is a president who recoils at the idea  of any new entanglement, whose attention is on the Pacific rather than Eurasia and is less worried than any of his recent predecessors about Russian aggression. And that’s what makes this situation so dangerous: Putin wants to know where the new red lines lie, and may keep pushing until he finds out. His asking Russia’s parliament for the authority to use troops is, I suspect, is a