Ukip

Today’s announcement that migrants cannot claim benefits if their English is so bad that they are unemployable looks suspiciously like another attempt by ministers to reassure fears about the end of those transitional controls on Bulgarian and Romanian migrants. And that is, in turn, an attempt to reassure Tory MPs that the government has done everything it can to keep Ukip at bay. But what is the Tory plan for Ukip? It needs to work out how to fight Nigel Farage’s party in the European elections, how to pre-brief the European elections (presumably by talking up Ukip’s chances so much that any result looks like a disappointment), and how to

When you look ahead to 2014, it is hard to escape the conclusion that two insurgent parties are making the political weather. The two big votes of the year are the European Elections, where Ukip may well top the poll, and the Scottish independence referendum, a product of the SNP’s Holyrood majority. The SNP and Ukip are both nationalist parties but they come from very different parts of the political spectrum. But what they have in common is that they have no desire to be part of a ‘consensus’ or be lauded as ‘responsible and respectable’. Instead, they stand passionately for what they believe in, unbothered—energised, even—by the contempt in which

After the Mail on Sunday’s awkward front page about Ukip Councillor Victoria Ayling’s apparently unsavoury views, Nigel Farage has sent an email around to party members complaining about the story and reassuring them that Ayling’s views have been distorted. Here is the text of the email: ‘I am sure many of you are aware of the attack by the Mail on Sunday on a Ukip Councillor this weekend. ‘I firstly want to reassure you that I believe this attack on Victoria Ayling to be unwarranted, and have the utmost sympathy with her. Her words on immigration it would appear were deliberately distorted and taken out of context in order to

Hats-off to James Kirkup for noticing that Goldman Sachs have suggested they would “drastically” cut their UK workforce (and operations) should Britain decide to leave the European Union. That is the view of Michael Sherwood, the fellow responsible for running Goldman’s european operations. I am sure eurosceptics will dismiss this as the usual scaremongering just as Scottish nationalists dismiss warnings that some businesses (RBS?) might shift their operations south in the event Scotland votes for independence next year. This is but one of the many ways in which the european and Scottish questions overlap or dovetail with one another. Perhaps it is only scaremongering! But what if it isn’t? In any case, the Tory High Command

It appears Laura Sandys has made the right decision to stand down at the next election. A new poll from Survation targeting her South Thanet constituency suggests that if a general election took place tomorrow, the Tories would fail to hold onto the seat. In the constituency once represented by Jonathan Aitken, the Conservatives have dropped 20 points since the last general election, pushing them into third place. Labour would take the seat with 35 per cent of the vote but most worryingly for some, Ukip’s vote has risen hugely, shooting into second place with 30 per cent: Constituency level polling is quite rare, so it’s always interesting to see

David Cameron’s proposals on free movement recognise that the European Union is very different now from what it used to be. When it was essentially a club of rich Western European nations, total freedom of movement was workable. But now that it includes countries whose GDP per head is less than half ours it is not. This is not a particularly Eurosceptic insight. As I reported back in February, Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats were thinking of basing future transition controls on per capita GDP to prevent an unsustainable level of immigration. But what is true is that unless the freedom of movement issue is dealt with, it’ll be

For months now, Number 10 has been fretting about what to do about Romanian and Bulgarian immigration. From the end of this year, any Romanian and Bulgarian will be able to move here in search of work. Downing Street knows that if they come in large numbers it’ll negate everything that the government has done to try and get immigration under control. Fairly or not, it’ll be fatal to the Tories’ reputation for competence on this issue. David Cameron is, as today’s Times and Mail reveal, now planning a major intervention on this issue. He wants to achieve three things. First, show that his government is handling the issue better

Ukip’s treasurer will be beaming this morning, thanks to Paul Sykes. The Yorkshire millionaire — whose wealth is estimated to be over £600 million — has, according to Philip Johnson in today’s Telegraph, promised to ‘do whatever it takes’ to ensure that the party tops the polls at the 2014 European elections. The Tories won’t be thrilled at the news; but Sykes is not a new problem, more of a recurring headache. He supported the Tories for many years; but left the party following the Maastrict Treaty, and campaigned instead for James Goldsmith. He rejoined the Tories in 2001 under William Hague before being expelled. Sykes donated £1.5 million to

For the Tories, it’s Europe. For Labour, it’s Blairites against Brownites. The Lib Dems, devoid of principle, go in for limp-wristed back-stabbing. Now Ukip, in a sign of its growing political maturity, has become distracted by cynical, and at times thoroughly unpleasant, infighting as those close to Nigel Farage seek to maintain his leadership cult. Party members do not even have to question their leader’s authority; merely being liked or achieving low level success breeds suspicion. Diane James, the Ukip candidate who came from nowhere to do so well in the Eastleigh by-election, has been on the receiving end of negative briefings in recent weeks. Meanwhile, an entire group of Ukip officials

There’s a rumour doing the rounds that Anna Soubry’s comments on immigration during Thursday night’s edition of Question Time did not come as a surprise to Tory High Command. Apparently, Soubry refused to take direction from the party machine and made clear that she would say, more or less, what she said. Coalition has certainly bred independent-minded ministers. The Lib Dems pick and choose which government policy to support in public, so it’s not wholly surprising that Tories sometimes follow suit. But, tough immigration policy is a key part of the Tories’ grand strategy and Soubry’s open disregard for the party line was striking. Plainly Lynton Crosby and Craig Oliver

Is Nigel Farage’s magic disappearing? On Question Time last night (his 15th appearance in four years) the Ukip leader was taken to task by an audience member who asked him to ‘stop scaremongering the majority of people’ — followed by the kind of rousing cheer that Farage himself used to draw. The Tory defence minister (and former TV anchor) Anna Soubry finished off the attack with an impassioned defence of immigration, in language that Farage usually uses to attack it. This left him flummoxed. Here’s what she had to say: ‘You do not talk facts, you talk prejudice. You scaremonger, you put fear in people’s hearts. Times are tough, we

One of the odd things about the polls at the moment is that the Tories lead on economic competence and leadership, traditionally the two most important issues, yet trail overall. There are, I argue in the column this week, three possible explanations for this polling paradox. The first possibility is that Ed Miliband is right, that the link between GDP growth and voters’ living standards is broken. A consequence of this is that voters put less emphasis on economic management in the round. Instead, they want to know which party will do most to help them with their cost of living. Then, there’s the possibility that the traditional political rules

HS2 was given an emphatic vote of no confidence at The Specator’s debate last night, where Matthew Parris and Nigel Farage led their respective teams into battle. This was the debate that Westminster will not have (all parties are officially agreed on the project) which is all the better for us. Farage claimed he loves infrastructure projects in general but hates HS2 as it’s a Westminster vanity project. Farage attempted to marry Ukip’s (inconsistent) support for high speed rail with his ardent opposition to HS2: ‘There are so many things we could do. And yes, let’s look at the Great Central railway project…we are not luddites, we are not backwards. I want

Has David Cameron lost the countryside? On this week’s View from 22 podcast, Spectator columnist Melissa Kite debates Renewal’s David Skelton on whether the Tory grassroots supporters have been abandoned by the urban elite who run the party. Have the previously hardcore Tories in the Countryside Alliance flocked to Ukip? Will this be a deciding factor in who wins the next election? And how import have house building, HS2 and hunting been? Isabel Hardman and James Forsyth also examine at why the next general election will be the most ideological battle in decades, as well as the problems Labour faces due to its soft polling lead. What has happened with High

There is today only one united French political party, and it is the National Front. The FN has been profiting from a split French right, a hopeless French left and from the general disenchantment with the political class. It is tempting then to compare, as Agnes Poirier did in the Times, the FN’s recent success with that of Ukip in Britain. Tempting, but wrong. The National Front is 30 years older than Ukip, and a very different beast. It supports protectionist policies, while Ukip promotes a more libertarian and democratic approach. The FN’s ‘progressive tax’ – a rising income tax – clearly contrasts with the flat tax advocated by Ukip. Some

I guess the ‘unite the Right’ memo has not got through to some Tories, with Michael Heseltine calling Ukip ‘a racist party’ and James Wharton saying they’re ‘an awkward group of strange people’. That may be unwise — rather like attacking your customer-base — but it’s also untrue. Small Right-wing parties have a huge disadvantage because, although lots of people are socially conservative, soc-cons tend on average to be low in social skills and charisma and so the normals are easily driven away by the weirds, especially when immigration is an issue. But the early stages are the hardest, when any party right of the mainstream can become toxified and