Ukip

During Owen Paterson’s vocal conversation with David Cameron in defence of his record as Environment Minister after learning he was being sacked, Paterson reportedly said: ‘this will be a kick in the teeth to 12 million countryside voters… you are making a big mistake’. There is already mounting evidence to suggest Paterson could be right. Judging by the two standing ovations that Paterson went on to receive last Friday at the Game Fair at Blenheim Palace (at the mere mention of his name), Charles Moore commented that ‘you could almost see the disaffected Tory voters fleeing to Ukip across the tent’. Never one to miss an open goal, Farage (mobbed

The talk before the reshuffle was all about the march of women into the cabinet, but the other story from yesterday’s developments is the positioning of Eurosceptic voices in the Cabinet. Rather than focusing on the demographic composition of the Cabinet, it’s worth considering the beliefs of those in key positions. In the run up to the election next year, and maybe a 2017 In/Out referendum, those who believe that fundamental reform of the EU is necessary and aren’t afraid to consider the alternative if it fails, will occupy key seats at the top table. No wonder Michael Fallon said ‘it’s certainly a Eurosceptic cabinet’ on the Today programme this

Politicians tend to get all the blame for immigration policies not working. But politicians are often doomed to fail on migration questions because there are deep-rooted problems with the way we all debate immigration and with what we expect of immigration policy. Following UKIP’s success in the European elections, and given the likely failure of the government to meet its net migration target by 2015, immigration is guaranteed to be a key focal point of public debate in the run-up to the general election next year. There is widespread agreement that Britain needs a ‘better’ immigration debate – but how can that be achieved? Over the past year I have

Vote Farage, get Miliband might not have quite as much resonance with voters as the Tories would like. But it is certainly effective with donors. If Ukip is seen as Ed Miliband’s passport to Number 10, it will be far harder for it to raise the money it needs to fight a successful general election campaign. So when Nigel Farage spoke to the Midlands Industrial Council—a group of right-wing business people who have in the past donated substantial sums to the Tories—after the European Elections, most of the questions were about how to avoid a split on the right letting Labour back into government. As I report in the Mail

Will he or won’t he stand in Thanet South? Nigel Farage’s name has been circulating in connection with this constituency for months, after the sitting Tory MP Laura Sandys announced she was standing down. But it’s all grown a whole lot more complicated in the past few days because a former Ukip member, Craig Mackinlay, has been selected to stand for the Conservatives. Now, the Ukip leader must decide whether standing against a former comrade will weaken his appeal in the seat. But how strong is that appeal anyway? The following data allows the households within Thanet South constituency to be segmented into 69 distinct demographic groups, and the chart

Mike Hancock has settled the civil case brought against him by a constituent alleging that he sexually assaulted her (Julie Bindel outlined the case for the magazine here). In a statement released today, the MP, currently suspended as a Liberal Democrat, apologises for his behaviour. He says: ‘In October 2009 you first came to me as a constituent to seek my assistance as your MP and councillor. Subsequently and over several months I came to your home on several occasions, sometimes unannounced and conducted a friendship with you that was inappropriate and unprofessional. ‘I understand that you felt degraded. I did not treat you with sufficient respect. I made you

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_12_June_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman discuss the English question and the next election” startat=1129] Listen [/audioplayer]Before David Cameron heads off for his summer holiday, he’ll be presented with a first draft of the Tory manifesto by Jo Johnson, Boris’s younger brother and a cautious, well-organised thinker. He dislikes publicity almost as much as the Mayor of London relishes it. Radical ministers lament that Johnson doesn’t like pushing their recalcitrant colleagues too far, but despite this, the early hints are that the manifesto will be a surprisingly bold document. There will, though, be one thing missing from this draft: what to do about the English question. A member of

It’s safe to say that the Tories are very pleased with their ground effort in last week’s Newark by-election, with praise heaped on those that put the hard slog in: From: Government Chief Whip Subject: Newark UPDATE Dear Colleague, Many thanks to the 86 colleagues who have made at least three trips to Newark (and in several cases, many more): Adams; Afriyie; Arbuthnot; Baldwin; Barclay; Blackwood; Blunt; Boles; Bradley; Burns C; Byles; Cairns; Cameron; Carmichael; Clappison; Clarke K; Colville; de Bois; Duddridge; IDS; Duncan; Ellis; Ellwood; Elphicke; Evennett; Fabricant; Francois; Freer; Garnier E; Goodwill; Gove; Grayling; Green; Greening; Grieve; Gyimah; Hague; Halfon; Hammond P; Hands; Harper; Hayes; Heald; Hollingbery; Hopkins;

The British political marketplace increasingly represents a busy bazaar. It is chaotic and unpredictable. The old assumptions about fixed allegiances are crumbling. Customers shop around. They feel little obligation to be loyal. Their attention can be attracted by innovative new propositions. To succeed in this furtive and fluid environment every political party needs to have a distinctive core proposition. The politicians who capture the public imagination have a clearly defined sales pitch. They stand for something unambiguous and argue for it with conviction. Their positions are black-and-white and their style is colourful. In this new era the absence of a unique selling point is a big problem. There is little

Newark has become a destination for Conservative campaigners demoralised by the local & European results. Around this Nottinghamshire market town there are whispers of victory in the by-election on Thursday. If Robert Jenrick wins big, then the momentum created by that, and the effect upon Conservative volunteers will be great. Defeat or narrow victory here could cause some to doubt their faith. The operation for the Conservative party, led by George Hollingbery, has been impressive. Evidence of how seriously the party takes Newark is in front of any volunteer: the wall to the right of the entrance is one long roll of honour, the signatures and dates of MPs who