Ukip

Jeremy Corbyn is a rarity among politicians. All his enemies are on his own side. For the Tories, Ukip and the SNP, Corbyn is a dream made real. They could not love him more. As the riotous scenes at the shadow cabinet and parliamentary Labour party meetings this week showed, his colleagues see Corbyn and John McDonnell as modern Leninists who are mobilising their cadres to purge all dissidents from the party. Conversations with Corbyn’s aides show a gentler side to the new regime, however. They suggest the Corbynistas are unlikely to be able to control Labour MPs when they can barely control themselves. ‘Chaos’ was the word that came

In 24 hours, the polling stations in Oldham West and Royton will be open and Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party will face its first test at the ballot box. Labour has held the seat for several decades and returned it with a 14,000 majority in May’s general election — so it should be an easy victory. But Corbyn’s leadership appears to dragging the party towards electoral oblivion, while Ukip is chipping away at the formerly solid Labour working-class vote in the North of England. So will the party manage to hold onto the seat? Although the implied odds from bookmakers say Ukip has a 27 per cent chance of winning, there are signs on the

Is Labour taking its eye off the Oldham West and Royton by-election? Next week, the party will be focused on whether it will back bombing Syria, but the by-election following the death of Michael Meacher is also being held on Thursday. Today’s papers are full of headlines proclaiming Labour is at war with itself, so you can understand this statement from Corbyn’s office: ‘Regrettably Jeremy Corbyn is not now visiting Oldham because matters to do with Syria mean he must return to London’ As Isabel has been reporting over the past few weeks, jitters are growing about whether Labour is doing enough to stem the flow of working class voters to Ukip. It is tricky to judge how the

Assuming we haven’t been vaporised by Vlad, the Oldham West and Royton by-election takes place next week, and Labour are seriously worried. Ukip’s odds to take the seat have fallen to 11/4 and as this observation from a campaigner explains, much of this seems down to the Corbyn effect. Labour have huge problems with their working class vote from what I have seen. These results were essentially reflected across the board by the 100 other campaigners over the last 2 weeks. Ukip is more popular than Farage though very few actively dislike him. But Corbyn has completely turned off his vote. Ukip are still going to struggle because near 30%

A number of Labourites are very worried about the impact that Jeremy Corbyn’s shoot-to-kill comments will have on the party’s chances in the Oldham West and Royton by-election. They think it is the latest in a line of incidents that will suggest to voters in that seat that the Labour leader isn’t really thinking about things that they worry about, and is more focused on the things that London types worry about. I understand that those involved in the campaign are worried the party is already in trouble, anyway. They believe that Corbyn is going down very badly with the large numbers of white working class voters in the seat,

Nigel Farage will tonight claim British Muslims are ‘conflicted’ in their loyalties to the UK, and there is a battle to be won for their ‘hearts and minds’. In his response to the Paris attacks, the Ukip leader will say: ‘According to research it is clear that the UK Muslim population are conflicted in their loyalties between loyalty to the UK, its way of life and its institutions and what elements within their organised faith are telling them. This conflict with the UK Muslim population suggests that there is all to play for and we can win the battle of hearts and minds.’ The Ukip leader will say we need to actively

Ukip has plumped for John Bickley as its candidate in the upcoming Oldham West & Royton by-election, following the death of Michael Meacher. Although other names were in the frame, Bickley was the natural choice — he came very close to winning in the nearby seat of Heywood & Middleton in a by-election last year. Ukip HQ will be hoping Bickley can use his local following to, at the very least, increase the party’s vote share. In the 2015 general election, Ukip received 20 per cent of the vote, a 17 per cent increase since the 2010 election. But Ukip still has an almighty challenge to win the seat: Labour won Oldham West with a 14,738 majority

Oh dear. The Halloween plans of a group of Ukip supporters look set to turn into a nightmare for the event’s organiser. After Guido Fawkes reported earlier this month that a Farage-sceptic branch of ‘Kippers were planning a Halloween party with the theme ‘Nigel Farage and his creepy henchmen’, word reaches Steerpike that the event has now been cancelled. Richard Hendron — who launched a failed bid earlier this year to be selected as Ukip’s candidate for London mayor — has written to attendees explaining that he has cancelled the event after ‘the powers that be in Ukip’ failed to see the funny side. He says that they threatened him with suspension and

The death of Michael Meacher means the first by-election of this Parliament is upon us — as well as the first with Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader. The exact timings have yet to be announced but sometime before the end of 2015 seems likely. The seat is likely to be a shoo-in for Labour: Oldham West & Royton and its predecessor constituency have been represented by Meacher since 1970 and by Labour since 1950 (minus one by-election in 1968). But strange things happen in by-elections and Ukip managed to increase its vote share in May’s general election by 17 per cent to 20.6 per cent. Labour has a whopping 14,738 majority but the Kippers

Is the infighting between the two campaigns for Britain to leave the EU drawing to a close? Coffee House understands that Arron Banks, the Ukip donor and founder of the Leave.EU campaign, has been in talks with Vote Leave, the other Brexit group run by Dominic Cummings and Matthew Elliott, about how the campaigns can work together better in the name of leaving the EU. Sources close to Arron Banks have told Coffee House that he is open to the idea of merging with ‘Vote Leave’ and taking a lower profile role in the EU referendum — acknowledging that the infighting is harming the Eurosceptic cause. The Leave.EU campaign say

Lord Warner has resigned the Labour whip in protest at the direction in which Jeremy Corbyn is taking the party, Patrick Wintour has revealed tonight. Warner was a minister of state at the Department of Health under Tony Blair. Now, Corbyn supporters will be quick to point out that Lord Warner is hardly a household name and that he was at the far Blairite end of the party. Both of these statements are true. But Warner’s departure should still worry Labour. All parties are coalitions and no leader should want to be losing former ministers from the party at any point in their leadership, let alone this early. One footnote

Nigel Farage appears to have u-turned about backing one Brexit campaign. At the party’s recent conference in Doncaster, the Ukip leader said he would be standing ‘hand in hand’ with Arron Banks and his Leave.EU group. But on the Sunday Politics yesterday, he gave equal weighting to Vote Leave, the other Brexit effort which launched on Thursday evening out of the Business for Britain campaign group: ‘I support both of them. I listened to what Vote Leave had to say last week. They’re a Westminster based group, making business arguments. Arguing, as I’ve done in this interview, for us to be free to make our own trade deals. That is of value.

This morning Nicola Sturgeon said in an interview on the Andrew Marr Show that a second referendum on Scottish independence is now ‘inevitable’: ‘I’ve always believed and I still believe today that Scotland will become independent and it will become independent in my lifetime.’ While many unionists were quick to point out that Sturgeon had said that the last referendum was a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity, David Coburn opted to take a different tack when it came to voicing his opposition to that ‘awful strident woman’: Saw that awful strident woman on Marr today talking about a second spearation referendum which she can't produce SNP total Fail — David Coburn (@coburn4ukunion) October 11, 2015 The Ukip

Ukip’s conference last week featured some characteristically colourful characters, including a lady with a Nigel Farage tattoo on her arm (and, strangely, one of Robert Smith of The Cure on the other). Significantly, though, attendance was down on last year. Sebastian Payne asked what the point of the party is, now that the Brexit referendum is coming and will answer their existential question either way. Iain Martin at Cap X then predicted that the party had run its course. It’s been a strange few months for the Kippers; a strong poll showing in May combined with a disappointing result, followed by Nigel Farage’s resignation and then un-resignation. Media attention has since focussed

Nigel Farage claimed at Ukip’s conference yesterday that all Eurosceptic groups were being brought together under the Leave.EU umbrella organisation, headed up by Ukip donor Arron Banks. However, the other Leave campaign, run by Matthew Elliott and Dominic Cummings, was notably absent and its representatives did not appear at the conference yesterday. Elliott’s Business for Britain group, which aims to give a voice to Eurosceptic businesses, was also not mentioned as part of the umbrella group. When I asked Farage about this, he said ‘they don’t want to leave, they want to wait and see what the Prime Minister has come back with’. Banks also told Coffee House he had approached the

Ukip’s autumn conference has turned into yet another war between Douglas Carswell and other parts of the party. Speaking to a huddle of journalists this afternoon, the Ukip donor and founder of Leave.EU campaign described Carswell as ‘borderline autistic with mental illness wrapped in’. Banks appears to be disgruntled at Carswell’s comments to Coffee House that he is more likely to back the Matthew Elliott-Dominic Cummings Leave campaign. In response, Carswell told BuzzFeed News ‘I think it’s best if I decline to comment. I think the comments are best not dignified with a response.’ Banks has since released an apology but has noted Carswell was provocative towards him: ‘Douglas Carswell was appallingly rude and provocative towards me today which does