Uk politics

In spite of his conviction for falsifying business records, Donald Trump is still expected by many to make a remarkable political comeback in November’s US election. Could we see an equally remarkable comeback this side of the Atlantic, too, with Liz Truss returning to the stand for the leadership of the Conservative party? It’s possible to see a scenario where Truss is one of the few hopefuls remaining Today’s Electoral Calculus poll predicting that the Conservatives could be reduced to just 66 seats on 4 July raises the question: who would still be around to lead the party after the almost certain resignation of Rishi Sunak? Electoral Calculus’s model is

The tightening looks on. On Tuesday, my polling firm JL Partners published its first campaign poll showing a 12-point Labour lead, down from 15 points at the start of May and 18 points in April. Our data scientist, Callum Hunter, has written for The Spectator on why we are confident our methodology is the right one. We will need to see in our next poll whether the trend continues or stalls. But there are reasons in the data to believe the Tories have more support to pick up. Reform is still on 12 per cent, and around four in ten (37 per cent) say they would consider voting for the

The Tories have announced that, if re-elected, they will introduce national service. And it won’t be the miserable existence imposed on all young men in conscription years past. Instead, the Tories will invite 18-year-olds to compete for selective 12-month spots in areas including cyber security, logistics and civil response. That’s the model Norway has successfully been operating for over three decades. In addition, young people will be asked to volunteer on a monthly basis with the NHS, the fire service or charities looking after elderly and lonely people. Such service is a win-win: it’s beneficial for the young people involved in it, and even more importantly it helps make our

When Rishi Sunak told cabinet colleagues about his decision to call a general election, Michael Gove sought to raise spirits by declaring ‘who dares, wins!’. But a great many Tory MPs have been making a different calculation: that with Labour 20 points ahead in the polls, it may be better not to dare – and just not fight the next election. This is what Gove has now ended up doing. In a letter released this evening, he’s leaving the once-safe seat of Surrey Heath to someone else and is joining a very long line of other refuseniks who are deciding not to join Sunak in the trenches. So far, 78