Uk politics

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

The Brownites still think they can win the election

So, back to the Labour leadership with Patrick Hennessy’s snappy article on the subject for the Sunday Telegraph.  The main sweep of Hennessy’s piece is that Brown is likely to step down quickly in the event of defeat; that Harriet Harman could well fill the caretaker leader role; and that certain Dark Forces are moving to install David Miliband as party leader proper.  The colour, though, lies in a couple of juicy snippets which are worth repeating here: “Last week, this newspaper has learnt, Lord Mandelson was overheard telling colleagues of his difficulties running the campaign when other figures – who could only be Miss Harman and her followers –

Peter Hoskin

Balls falling behind in the Labour leadership race

We are, in all likelihood, only days away from a full-blown, out-in-the-open Labour leadership contest.  In which case, the odds that Ladbrokes have just fired out are worth a passing glance.  Underneath the news that the Tories are now odds-on to form a majority government, they’ve got this list: Next permanent Labour leader David Miliband 7/4 Ed Miliband 5/1 Alan Johnson 6/1 Harriet Harman 8/1 Peter Mandelson 10/1 Alistair Darling 12/1 Ed Balls 14/1 Jon Cruddas 14/1 Jack Straw 25/1 John Denham 25/1 Andy Burnham 25/1 Hilary Benn 33/1 Yvette Cooper 33/1 The thing that strikes me is Ed Balls’s relatively low position – behind both Alistair Darling and Peter

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Cameron must avoid making deals with the Lib Dems

Even after the Gillian Duffy incident, tonight’s polls either point to a hung parliament or a gossamer Tory majority. So the prospect of a Con-LibDem alliance, being forged next weekend, remains all too real. In the leading article of this week’s Spectator, we urge Cameron to go it alone with a minority government – rather than enter into a pact, of any sort, with the LibDems. If Cameron fails to win a majority, he must form a minority government, do the best he can and then, when the time comes, ask the Queen for a dissolution of Parliament so he can ask the country for a majority. There are five

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Why the Guardian should have backed the Tories

The Guardian missed a trick today. It should have endorsed the Conservatives. As a regular reader of that great newspaper, I can diagnose the ailment: it is confusing intentions with outcomes. It wishes for a more progressive society, greater equality and the betterment of the most vulnerable. But it has not quite worked out that these aims cannot be achieved by a powerful government: and that state-directed attempts at promoting a “progressive” society actually make it less equal, more regressive and end up empowering a bureaucratic elite. The Guardian lets itself down here: it has focused on what is said – not what is done. In doing so, it does

Peter Hoskin

The curtain starts to fall on Gordon Brown

There’s a strange fin de siècle air about Labour this weekend: a new appreciation that the forthcoming election marks either the end of their reign, or – at best – is the start of a different, diluted kind of power.  There are still a few signs of life and struggle, sure.  I mean, Gordon Brown’s interview with Jeremy Paxman last night was fairly proficient by his standards, if typically disingenuous.  But, even then, the PM is struggling to move the conversation on from Gillian Duffy.  In interview with the Telegraph today, he admits that he has “paid [a] heavy price” for his gaffe. That line forms the headline of the

Friday

Fraser Nelson

Darling socks it to Balls

The election is six days away, Labour civil war is seven days away. And Alistair Darling has today delivered a rather nice put-down to Ed Balls for BBC Campaign Straight Talk. Here is his conversation earlier today with Andrew Neil: Andrew Neil: Has Mr Brown given you any indication that you’d stay as Chancellor if he wins? Alistair Darling: Yes he has, and I would. AN: You would? AD: Yes. AN: And you’d be happy to do so? AD: Very happy. AN: So Ed Balls should not be packing his bags to move into Number 11? AD: I don’t think Ed has got any intention of doing that. AN: Well

Daniel Korski

Tories would look to withdraw from Afghanistan in the next parliament

Today’s Express is reporting that David Cameron has said it would be wrong to set an ‘artificial deadline’ for withdrawal of British troops from Afghanistan, but that he hoped troops would come home during the course of the next Parliament.   In many ways this is smart politics. Given that President Obama has said that US troops would be looking to come home from 2011 onwards, it is hardly surprising that the Tory leader hopes British troops would return within the next five years. Other countries in Helmand, like Denmark, have begun signaling the same. The statement may – I say may – help those who care passionately about the

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Yet another Brown disaster

Word reaches me of another Brown live mic incident, breaking now. Our Dear Leader has just been at Blidworth Oaks Primary School in Mansfield, talking to eight year olds about NICE and drug rationing – boring the bejesus out of them. The teacher, sensing impending classroom unrest, tried to shut Brown up by thanking him for his contribution. Brown says: “Am I being thrown out?” Reply: “Um… Yes”. And in more ways than one. 

Peter Hoskin

The quiet rise of Alistair Darling

A noteworthy set of observations from Iain Martin over at the Wall Street Journal: “The Labour family is starting to realise that if it is out of power it would need a caretaker leader in place quickly so that it can regroup, rethink and then work out which of the competing contenders has the best chance of beginning the work of reconstruction. In this context, I hear the name of Alistair Darling being mentioned increasingly as the interim option. It makes a lot of sense. The Chancellor has had a good crisis and he could steady the ship. He also has a great sense of humour – which will be

Peter Hoskin

Too little, too late | 30 April 2010

My gosh, these latest Labour posters are open for all kinds of spoofery. But at least they’re positive and colouful – unlike Gordon Brown’s performance in the TV debate last night.  Which, really, highlights Labour’s fundamental problem during this campaign.  The big set-piece events have been almost relentlessly negative, whilst they’ve left what passes for a positive prospectus to posters which will barely make it past the confines of the political blogosphere.  But, never mind – Tony Blair thinks that “Labour’s got every chance of succeeding.”  So all’s well then.

Daniel Korski

Tories win Today’s first post-debate debate

Today’s debate was riveting. It showed two candidates who were miles away from each other. One was clear, honest and able to avoid the traps set by the interviewer. The other was dissembling and unclear, his line of argument collapsing under the barrage of questioning. If a doubting voter had heard the debate, unsure beforehand whether to vote Tory or Lib Dem, they would likely have plumped for the former, afterwards. Oh yes, there was a debate yesterday, too, among the three party leaders. But that’s not what I’m talking about. No, with the debates now firmly part of the British political system, an equally important feature has arrived with

David Blackburn

Labour’s campaign implodes

Labour’s campaign has been dysfunctional. ‘Bigot-gate’, the concealed cuts, the absence of a spending review, open challenges to the leadership, infighting and a manifesto that read like the terms of surrender, it has been beset by gaffes and self-immolation. Last night, Gordon Brown personified the desperation at Labour’s core. He was negative – dour predictions accompanying an ashen expression. He defibrillated the old cuts versus investment line – a lurid grope for his core vote and one that is incredible in the current circumstances. We expected all of that; what we did not expect was that Brown no longer agrees with Nick. Pitching for what remains of his position on

Peter Hoskin

The Tories’ final push

Fresh from David Cameron’s victory in the final TV debate, the Tory campaign has taken another assured step this morning.  As Tim Montgomerie reports over at ConservativeHome, they’re going to flood the doorsteps with the leaflet, ‘A contract between the Conservative Party and you’ (pdf here).  Inside, a list of clear policy commitments from “publishing every item of government spending over £25,000,” to “reducing immigration” to the levels of the 1990s – meaning tens of thousands a year, instead of the hundreds of thousands a year under Labour.”  And, on the back page, a refutation of some of Labour’s most misleading claims about the Tories.  Clear, simple and direct. You

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Tonight David Cameron turned in the performance he needed to. In the post-debate polls, Cameron has won three comfortably, one narrowly and tied the other

For the first forty-five minutes it was rather like the first debate. Brown attacked Cameron, Cameron hit back and all the while Clegg soared above it. But then immigration, Clegg’s Achilles heel, was thrown into the mix. Cameron went hard for Clegg over his amnesty policy, and Clegg had no clear answer—initially backing away from the policy, before coming back to it. Throughout this exchange, Cameron had covering fire from Brown. Clegg appeared knocked back as he came under the most sustained attack of the campaign and didn’t get back into his groove until his closing statement. In the meantime, Cameron capitalised; delivering some of his strongest answers of the

Thursday

Fraser Nelson

Cameron shines, Clegg wobbles and Brown sinks

Well, Cameron saved the best till last. His aides are even joking that they could do with a fourth debate because their man is really getting in the swing of it. He looked more confident, assured – and spoke convincingly about immigration at last, a subject he fluffed last time. I’d place Clegg second. Brown was worse than awful: third in this debate, and will probably be third next week’s election too. Clegg was his usual telegenic self – in thespian terms, an accomplished performance. But he ran away from his own asylum policy, and was comically inept with the facts. He screamed at Cameron: “Will you admit that 80

Peter Hoskin

Sunshine wins the day for Cameron

So that’s the second time that immigration has had a major impact upon proceedings this week.  Until we came to the question on that topic, I thought Clegg was bossing the TV debate.  He was clear, personable and managed to hover elegantly above Brown and Cameron’s dusty brawl over spending cuts.  But as soon as it came to clarifying Lib Dem policy on an amnesty for illegal immigrants, the wings rapidly fell off the yellow bird of liberty.  All of a sudden, Clegg sounded rattled and unpersuasive.  From then on in, it was Cameron’s game. It helped that Cameron had the clearest – and, I suspect, the most popular –

Peter Hoskin

The final TV debate – live blog

2227, JGF: Rumour going around the press room that a certain A Campbell has been overheard saying ‘I think we’ve had it’ 2201, PH: And that’s it. I’ll be putting up my verdict in a separate post shortly. Thanks for tuning in. 2200, PH: Woah. Brown starts positive – thanking everyone involved in the debates.  But he’s soon into hardcore negativity: attaking the Tories for their inheritance tax plans and pointing out what areas of spending they will cut.  It’s all scaremongering about child tax credits, cancer guarantees and the like.  This, lest you need reminding, is his pitch for the country. 2128, PH: Clegg hones in on the “old

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Ten questions for Gordon Brown tonight

By rights, Gordon Brown should fear this debate on the economy more than any other. Here are ten questions I would like to hear him answer:   1. You told Gillian Duffy yesterday that you have a “deficit plan to cut the debt in half over four years.” This was a lie, wasn’t it? Our debt is £771bn now. Your deficit plan ­- ie, to run huge deficits for years – will actually double it to £1,406 billion within four years according to the Treasury. The debt for which Mrs Duffy and other taxpayers are liable would double under your plans ­- yet you told her it would halve. How

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron’s tactical dilemma

One thing to watch tonight is David Cameron’s strategy for dealing with Nick Clegg’s plan to take peoples’ first ten thousand pounds of income out of tax. This policy is clear and appealing and one that many Conservatives like. Indeed, Cameron himself called it a ‘beautiful policy’ in the first debate. So it is imperative, that the Tories have a way to try and defuse it. During the campaign, the Tories have used two different attacks on it. One is to criticise it from the left, to argue that the policy is not progressive as it does not help the lowest paid: you have to earn more than ten thousands

Daniel Korski

Dear Dave,

Tonight is about the economy – the most important issue troubling voters. Amazing, though, your economic mesage has not been particularly clear. Incredible given what the Labour government has done, I know, but true. George Osborne cannot seem to win over the City; the Lords of Finance never miss an opportunity to tell the FT that they don’t like/trust him. Your deficit-reduction message is on the other hand clear – but voters don’t seem to like it, believe it is actually necessary and seem worried about the “Sword of Cable”, which, like that of Damocles, is said to hang over the country by a hair and can come plunging down