The state of British democracy
Uk politics
Monday
The Scottish angle
I am told that one of the Lib Dems groups most opposed to doing a deal with the Tories was its Scottish MPs. Their view was that Scotland had voted massively against the Tories and that any party seen as their representatives in Scotland would be massacred. This has set off chatter in Tory circles. There was already irritation that the party has a majority in England and Wales but was still having to compromise on issues that have been devolved to Scotland. But to not be able to make a coalition deal because of your unpopularity north of the border is to add insult to injury.
The Tories should shine a light on Labour’s leadership machinations
One striking aspect to this evening’s brouhaha is how senior Labour figures are going out of their way not to endorse anyone as Gordon Brown’s successor. Brown himself has said that he won’t back an “individual candidate,” and Peter Mandelson and Alastair Campbell have made similar noises in television interviews. There are, I imagine, two main reasons for this. First, it’s all too soon: Labour won’t want to engage in full internecine combat while there’s still the chance of a deal with the Lib Dems. And, second, they will want to create the impression that – contrary to Gordon Brown’s ascension to power in 2007 – the next Labour leader
The Tories work to seize the moral high ground
Well, well today just keeps getting more and more extraordinary. The Tories have responded to the Lib Dems beginning formal negotiations with Labour by offering the Lib Dems a referendum on AV in exchange for a full coalition with Lib Dems in the Cabinet. The Tories stress that this is their final offer to the Lib Dems. Having spoken to several members of the shadow Cabinet, it appears that the offer is designed to allow the Tory party to seize the moral high ground. They believe that if the Lib Dems were to join with Labour to ram through a change in the voting system—Labour are offering the Lib Dems
How can the Lib Dems deal against the backdrop of a Labour leadership contest?
And so it begins. With Brown’s statment earlier, the Labour leadership contenders are already creeping out of of the Downing Street woodwork. Paul Waugh tweets that David Miliband will announce his candidacy tonight. The News of the World reports that Ed Balls has his campaign primed and ready to detonate. And I’d be very surprised if there aren’t more names about the enter the fray. All this activity is sending electic currents through the Westminster air – and it could end up burning Labour and the Lib Dems. Both sides are are saying that they want to create a “strong” and “stable” government. But how can Clegg & Co. see
Brown saves the worst till last
We have just witnessed Gordon Brown’s last and most audacious confidence trick. “Gordon Brown to resign” says the television newsflash: but the story was the very opposite. Gordon Brown is staying on, saying – pretty much – that it will take an SAS operation to get him out of No.10 before the autumn. He declared a “constitutional duty” to stay until a new administration is formed “with majority support in the House of Commons”. Untrue. You just need a majority to pass laws. One can govern with a parliamentary minority (see Alex Salmond in Edinburgh, and Harold Wilson in 1974). Cameron won the right to govern, when he last week
Brown statement: now with added video
And here’s a transcript of the statement “We have a parliamentary and not presidential system in this country and as I said on Friday, with no party able to command a parliamentary majority arising from the general election, my constitutional duty as prime minister is to ensure that government continues while parties explore options for forming a new administration with majority support in the House of Commons. “The business of government has continued including concerted action in Europe today to avert the financial crisis in the Euro area. Alistair Darling the chancellor spent much of his time yesterday in the European finance ministers meeting in Brussels. This morning I have
The best possible news for the Tories
Gordon Brown’s announcement that the Liberal Democrats have requested formal coalition talks is the best news that the Conservative party has had since the polls closed on Thursday. David Cameron can now say that his party has negotiated in good faith and that his broad, comprehensive, and open offer to the Lib Dems is on table and they can take it or leave it. If the Lib Dems do end up going into coalition with Labour they would completely discredit themselves and be slaughtered at any subsequent election, remember getting PR through the Lords would take at least a year. The markets would also not be impressed by a coalition
Gordon Brown announces his resignation
You’re witnessing history, CoffeeHousers: Gordon Brown has just announced his departure from frontline politics. In a statement outside Downing St, he confirmed that he would be stepping down as Labour leader by September – triggering a leadership contest in the process. It’s clear that he’s using himself as a bargaining chip, making a Lib-Lab deal more palatable to Nick Clegg. Indeed, he even said that formal talks between the parties are now commencing. This threatens not just to shake the kaleidoscope, but to smash it to pieces. Until 17:05 this afternoon, most folk thought that a Lib-Con deal was imminent. But surely Brown wouldn’t have taken this step if there
Suspended animation | 10 May 2010
Weirdness reigns in Westminster at the moment, as the entire political establishment sits drooling and waiting for insights into the Lib-Con talks. The latest negotiator to break cover was the Lib Dem’s David Laws who managed, very artfully, to give very little away. And so we were told that the Lib Dems are speaking with Labour, and that they are seeking “clarification” from the Tories over every issue from eduction to tax and electoral reform. In other words: all the parties concerned are still negotiating. There is a growing sense – fuelled by reports that Nick Clegg is meeting his MPs later this evening – that we may not get
The return of David Davis
The shadow Cabinet were gathering before their meeting at 2pm. One member told me ‘it is looking less like formal coalition now.’ But coalition remains the leadership’s preferred option. Talking to Tory MPs—old and new—this morning, there’s a sense that they would slightly prefer minority government. Though, no-one is planning to blow themselves up if the country does end up with a Tory-Lib Dem coalition. One other interesting development today is that there is a growing expectation that David Davis will be recalled to the colours. Certainly, his return would make Cameron’s top team more accurately reflect the ideological balance of the party.
Do the Lib-Lab talks alter the landscape?
Isn’t it all very cosy? Turns out the Lib Dem negotiating team secretly met with a Labour delegation over the weekend: Ed Balls, Peter Mandelson, Ed Miliband and Andrew Adonis. And it’s thought that Nick Clegg has had more conversations with Gordon Brown, both on the phone and in person. So the Tories aren’t the only ones enjoying some quality LibTime. It doesn’t really alter the cut of the situation, though. Most folk around Westminster seem to expect a Lib-Con deal, of sorts, at some point today. But Clegg and his team would weaken their hand if they didn’t at least explore every option. The Tory leadership will appreciate this
Who’s using whom?
Another day of live political theatre, staged live at College Green. Given that Cameron last night negotiated a confidence-and-supply deal – ie, enough to keep him in a minority government like Alex Salmond has in Scotland – why is he negotiating further? What’s more to discuss? This is what we find out today. David Steel told Radio Four this morning that Nick Clegg had told him, before the election, that he would put a time cap on any Con-Lib Pact – ie, a shelf life of one or two years. This suggests that the Lib Dems would not fall for the obvious Tory ruse: the offer of a referendum on
The coalition nears
‘A government by this evening’ is what several Tory MPs have told me they expect. Those who have spoken to David Cameron say that he has no appetite for a second election within 12 months and that he wants the stability of a coalition. David Cameron is in the House of Commons. When I passed him earlier, he was without the entourage that so often accompanies him and was saying hello to those he passed. This might not sound like much but it does suggest that Cameron is adjusting to the new circumstances, that he is taking greater care to be nice to his parliamentary party than he has previously.
Who should get what?
In February I pontificated about the composition of Cameron-Clegg government – to general ridicule. The blogpost looks increasingly prescient now that David Cameron seems to be favouring a formal deal with the Lib Dems. Assuming that Lib Dem MPs will sit around the Cabinet table, what ministries should they get? The assumption is that the Lib Dems want six Cabinet post and will probably end with no more than four. The Conservatives cannot give up the Chancellorship, Education or the FCO – departments that are important for the leadership, its worldview and its reform agenda . Nor is it easy to see a Lib Dem in Defence or someone like
So now we know how Boris feels about coalition government
Aside from a few quips about Walls sausages and Meccano, Boris has kept his views relatively private since the events of last Thursday. But you can always count on the Mayor of London to open up for his Daily Telegraph column, and, today, he does exactly that. Here’s his take on a Lib-Con coaltion – which, to my eyes, seems more than just a little bit dismissive: “The Lib-Con negotiations are still going on, in a foretaste of the Belgian orgies of tedium and paralysis that proportional representation will inflict on the country. Everyone is trying politely to work out exactly how many Cabinet seats to give a party that
Sunday
A rolling Westminster drama
Another extraordinary day in Westminster. A deal looks likely to be agreed by Clegg and Cameron tomorrow morning, put to backbench MPs in the afternoon and then Brown will advise the Queen to send for Cameron on Tuesday. (Brown may choke on those words, but if he says ‘send for Ed Balls’ I don’t think she will fall for it.) This evening at 6pm, the handful of Tories MPs who are in London met Cameron at the Commons to discuss the coalition talks. Rumours still fly but as I understand it a deal has been reached where the LibDems will vote for Tory cuts – thereby fulfilling Vince Cable’s pledge to
No Lib-Con deal for at least 24 hours
William Hague has just emerged from the Cabinet Office and spoken of the ‘positive, constructive and substantive talks’ between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Discussion has encompassed political reform, reducing the deficit, banking reform, regulation of small businesses, environmental issues and civil liberties. Hague says that a further meeting will take place at some stage in the next 24 hours. ‘That meeting,’ he added. ‘Will concentrate on deficit reduction and economic stability’. The language of the statement suggests that an informal pact is more likely than a formal coalition. It is surely indicative that the follow-up talks aim to secure economic stability in the interests of the country, rather
My understanding is that Cameron will not sacrifice schools reform
During coalition talks, wild rumours can fly – and some of them can be true. That’s why Michael Gove would have stopped many a Tory heart this morning by telling Andrew Marr that he was by no means wedded to a Cabinet job and then heaped praise on David Laws. The Gove schools policy is ranked by The Spectator as reason in itself to vote Tory and by The Economist as the best single policy of the election campaign. Might it be sacrificed? The 10am radio headlines were suggesting so. I bumped into Gove just afterwards and asked him: panic over. He had simply sought to make clear that he
Don’t forget the Party, David
Days, perhaps only hours away from the expected announcement of a Con-Lib deal, the Tory party rank-and-file is getting increasingly restive. Many MPs and party activists do not feel that Team Cameron has been sufficiently attentive to them and their concerns. They look longingly at the Lib Dems, whose democratic set-up enables MPs and party members to make their views known to Nick Clegg and the leadership. In a Tory party that has always favoured single-minded leadership, the options for representing rank-and-file views are few, particularly as the chairmanship of the 1922 committee remains vacant. As a result, many senior MPs have been reduced to calling hacks to find out
