Uk politics

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

We should judge Bercow at the end of this Parliament

Well, the news that Sir Menzies Campbell is lobbying to be made Speaker – as revealed by Iain Dale last night – certainly adds a dash of spice to proceedings.  But I’d still expect John Bercow to comfortably survive any re-election vote today.  On paper, all the arithmetic works in his favour.  And there’s a sense that many Tory backbenchers are holding their fire for bigger battles with the party leadership ahead. But does Bercow deserve to stay?  I must admit, I’m rather ambivalent about the issue: I didn’t really want him as Speaker, but I didn’t really not want him as Speaker either.  And after his solid enough first

Monday

James Forsyth

The gathering storm over the 55 percent plan

There is a massive difference between rebellious talk and actual rebellion. But some of the language surrounding the 55 percent rule has been striking. When I told one senior MP that David Cameron had said on Sunday that he would whip this vote, the MP shot back defiantly, ‘you whip if you want to.’ David Davis’s intervention on the issue on the World at One was particularly significant. Having called the 55 percent rule ‘just a terrible formula for government’ it is hard to see how he can support the measure. It is also hard to imagine that a man who picks his fights so carefully would have marched so

Peter Hoskin

The Labour leadership battle: tribalism vs anti-tribalism

While we’re on the subject of the Labour leadership, it’s worth reading James Purnell’s article in the Times today.  I know, I know – he’s left Parliament now.  But Purnell is close to Team Miliband (the Elder), so I imagine some of his thinking might show up in the campaign.  In which case… One thing that jumped out at me was Purnell’s attitude to the coalition government.  Sure, he attacks it as “only symbolically progressive,” but he doesn’t dismiss it out of hand.  Indeed, he even suggests that coalition might be a good thing: “Gently, too — we should give credit to Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg for the way

Lawrence Kay

What to do with all that knowledge on welfare

Is Frank Field back? The Labour MP has spent much of his life talking about the poor. Judging by reports today, he might be offered a job chairing a commission on child poverty. This is good news but, as Mr Field has already said, there is not much point in him debating the finer points of poverty definitions. He would need to be given remit to suggest policy. What should those suggestions be? First, he should argue that we need to be a lot less self-indulgent about how we think about child poverty. It may be great to think of ourselves as tackling a major social ill, but the past

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Working side by side

George Osborne and David Laws’ press conference this morning gave some hints about the chances of the coalition making it. The Treasury is where, I suspect, this coalition will succeed or fail. If the two parties can keep it together on how to reduce the deficit and how fast to do it, then I expect that they’ll be able to deal with the other issues that are thrown at them. Encouragingly from this perspective, Osborne and Laws seemed comfortable sharing a platform; there were no attempts to score points off each other. It appeared to be a harmonious double-act. But Osborne didn’t refer as many questions to Laws as he

James Forsyth James Forsyth

David Miliband sets out the fraternal dividing lines

David Miliband is one of those politicians who speeches improve when you read them on paper, his delivery still distracts more than it adds. If the Labour party is going to pick the Miliband who is the more natural platform speaker then David hasn’t got much of a chance. But if they want the Miliband who is more prepared to think about why Labour really lost then David might well be their man. On Saturday, Ed Miliband talked about how Iraq, a ‘casualness’ about civil liberties and a failure to regulate the banks properly had cost Labour the election. This might be Ed Miliband’s genuine analysis but it is also

Peter Hoskin

Frank Field would complete the Tories’ welfare reform jigsaw

So now the coalition stretches as far as Labour, with the news that Frank Field is being lined up as an anti-poverty advisor for the government.  In itself, this is an encouraging development: Field is one of decent men of Westminster – committed, informed and passionate.  But when you look at it beside the Tories’ other appointments in this area, then it really becomes exciting.  Field, IDS, Grayling and Lord Freud – all are deeply knowledgable about the welfare reform agenda, to the point where it’s difficult to think of many more impressive teams in recent political history.  So perhaps there is hope for this most difficult of policy areas,

Peter Hoskin

Osborne rolls his sleeves up

Just in case you didn’t see the front cover of the Guardian, let me tell you: it’s a big day for George Osborne.  This, after all, is the day when he finally launches the Office for Budget Responsibility’s audit of the public finances – zero hour for the age of austerity.  Accordingly, then, Osborne has given his first major newspaper interview since becoming Chancellor.  Here, from that, is a quartet of observations for you: Office for Budget Responsibility.  The more I hear about it, the more I like this Office for Budget Responsibility.  Sure, it’s another quango of sorts.  But anyone who has lamented the government’s wildly optimistic growth forecasts,

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

Osborne’s Big Choice: how much of our debt to reveal

The cover of today’s Sunday Times spells out what we all suspected anyway: that the Labour government left behind acre upon acre of scorched earth for the Tories to contend with.  There’s the £13 billion contract for tanker aircraft, the £1.2 billion “e-borders” IT project, a £420 million spend on schools, and so on – most of them put in place just before the election.  As James said earlier, Sir Alan Budd’s audit of the public finances is likely to show that things are much worse than the last Budget dared admit. All this throws open the wider question of our debt position.  Even by Labour’s measures, our national debt

Daniel Korski

The life of a Tory MP

A Norwegian MP once told me that every time he thought life on the opposition benches was terrible he would think about life on the government backbenches – and realise how much he enjoyed his job. Life as a government-supporting backbench MP is difficult; if you are not willing to cap your ambition, you have to support the government, keep criticism muted and hope for elevation to ministerial rank in any future reshuffle. It is doubly difficult for the hard-working Tory MPs who lost out on government jobs because of the need to find space for Lib Dems, rather than because of their personal abilities. I can think of at

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Why Labour is still within striking distance

Things are looking good for Cameron – his coalition has 60 percent approval rating, he has managed to persuade the Lib Dems to support what always was a liberal Tory agenda. There is plenty for Conservatives to celebrate, especially on welfare reform and education. But, still, things could be a lot worse for the Labour Party than they are now. I say in my News of the World column today that, rather than being “out for a generation” as Tory strategists were hoping only a month ago, Labour remains (amazingly) in striking distance of winning the next election. And there is no telling when that election will be. Clegg and

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Prime Minister Cameron’s first TV interview

David Cameron’s first broadcast interview from Downing Street contained two significant pieces of news. First, George Osborne will commission an independent audit of the public finances and state spending on Monday. I suspect that this audit will reveal that things are even worse than the official figures suggest. The political purpose of this audit will be to provide cover for the necessary cuts, to show that they are necessary because of Labour’s economic mismanagement. I also expect that the new Office of Budgetary Responsibility will provide a new, more cautious set of economic forecasts. The other piece of news was Cameron confirming that the vote on the 55 percent clause

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

A lesson for all new MPs

Ed Miliband has given a surprisingly good speech this morning: free from all the junk language that his older brother has a weakness for. But he raises an interesting question: Why did Gisela Stuart win in Birmingham Edgbaston? Why did Karen Buck win Westminster North? Why did Andy Slaughter win in Hammersmith? Might it have been because all three of these politicians were, at one point, thorns in the flesh of their government? That they all at times campaigned, on principle, against the Labour government? As I said in The Times yesterday, the German-born Ms Stuart was a committed foe of the EU Constitution – who denounced it, and the

Kate Maltby Kate Maltby

The equality dilemma

Spare a thought for poor Theresa May. Judging by the reaction so far, she now faces the unenviable task of shouldering almost everyone’s preconceptions about Tory women in government – with Caroline Spelman, Baroness Warsi and the lower-profile Cheryl Gillan for back-up. She will no doubt continue to disappoint feminists and irritate reactionaries, and she will do so while responsible for the notoriously unwieldy Home Office, which has rapidly taken over from the Department of Health as the ministry where political careers go to die. Representation in politics does matter. It is not unreasonable to claim, as Katharine Viner did in Thursday’s Guardian, that “democracies simply don’t work unless they

Daniel Korski

Building on the coalition’s good start

A week in, and I am loving the Conservative-led government. The new line-up of Secretaries of State is very impressive and, though a few solid Tory politicians missed out on Cabinet posts, the inclusion of the Liberal Democrat bench has swelled the government’s talent quota. David Cameron has infused No 10 with energy and purpose. You can just feel the umpf. As the former MP John Gummer said, there is now “smile on the face of Britain”. Foreign Secretary William Hague’s trip to the US set the right tone by calling the UK-US link “an unbreakable alliance”. If he now goes on to places where the “economic action” is, to

Peter Hoskin

Ed Balls follows Ed Miliband’s lead

So fraternal rivalry it is, then, as Ed Miliband prepares to announce his leadership bid at a Fabian Society conference today. And, reading his interview with the Guardian, it’s clear that Ed Balls is soon going to follow suit. Two Eds, two leadership bids, and much shared rhetoric about “listening” to voters. But the similarities don’t end there. The passage where Ed Balls argues in favour of “progressive universalism” – a welfare system which stretches to the middle classes – echoes an interview that Ed Miliband gave to the Guardian in March. Both claim that it’s important to make sure tax credits and other benefits reach those higher up the

Friday

David Blackburn

Stephen Timms MP stabbed

The Sun is reporting that former finance minister Stephen Timms has been stabbed during a surgery at his constituency office in East Ham. A 21 year-old woman is being detained. Timms has been taken to hospital. His condition is not thought to be life-threatening. More to follow.       

Peter Hoskin

Hurd weighs in on the 55 percent debate

Plenty of eyes on the Tory grandees at the moment.  I mean, the right of the party isn’t exactly delighted with the LibCon coalition – so the search is on for figureheads to lead the resistance.  Which is why Andrew Neil’s interview with Douglas Hurd on Staight Talk this weekend is worth paying attention to. As it happens, Lord Hurd is quite complementary towards David Cameron and his role in organising the coalition.  Here’s the actual quote: “I think it was a brave thing to do.  It might have gone terribly wrong, but he went straight for it and he was completely straightforward in saying this is what this is,

Peter Hoskin

Who will be Labour’s cuts candidate?

As Guido and Jim Pickard have pointed out, Liam Byrne’s article in the Guardian today reads like the launch of a leadership bid.  But if it is, then it’s not a well-judged one.  Amid some sensible points about Labour’s demise, there’s too much “if we’d have done what I said” bravado which, I imagine, won’t go down well with the party faithful right now.  A bit like pouring vinegar on an open wound. But it’s worth considering another angle to a Byrne leadership bid.  A couple of weeks ago, I wondered whether Brown’s departure would also take Labour away from the “investment vs cuts” dividing line of the past decade,

Daniel Korski

When will the government be mugged by reality?

One of the most interesting questions is whether the Tories and the Lib Dems will be able to move from the talking points to the action points. Besides Ken Clarke, Francis Maude and William Hague none of the ministers have any previous government experience. They know government from the outside, from the sidelines, from parliamentary questions but not from the inside. It will be really interesting to see how the Cameron-Clegg government copes not just with the issues where they can set the agenda – like police reform – but where the Goverment is mugged daily by reality – like Pakistan or Yemen. I suspect they will find Labour acted