Uk politics

Thursday

Sally Thompson

Tobin’s folly

The Eurozone Tobin tax announced on Tuesday by Merkel and Sarkozy is intended to reduce market volatility. It could have the opposite effect, and, if introduced in Britain, could cripple Britain’s financial sector, a new report by the Adam Smith Institute says. Based on the example of the “pure” Tobin tax that was implemented in Sweden in the 1980s and a large number of studies looking at equity and foreign exchange markets, a clear relationship was revealed between increasing transaction costs and higher levels of volatility. Transaction volumes also decrease as business is driven to lower tax regimes. When Sweden introduced a levy of 0.5 per cent, 60 per cent

David Blackburn

The annual A-levels helter-skelter

The Gap Year has been declared dead. It’s A-levels day today, and the annual scramble for university places has been intensified ahead of next year’s tuition fees rise. According to this morning’s Times (£), the last count had 669,956 pupils sprinting after 470,000 vacancies. An estimated 50,000 students with adequate grades will not enter higher education this year as many universities have raised entry requirements to manage increased demand. This means that competition during clearance will be even more stiff than usual, particularly as universities will offer many fewer clearing places according to various surveys. Needless to say, UCAS’ website appears to have collapsed under the weight of this unparalleled

Wednesday

James Forsyth

The Huhne story returns

The news that the Crown Prosecution Service has asked Essex Police to make further inquiries into the whole allegation that Chris Huhne asked his then wife to take speeding points for him in 2003 is a political embarrassment for the Energy and Climate Change Secretary. Huhne has always denied these allegations and nothing has been proved against him but the whole process is hardly reputation enhancing. (But it is worth noting that the CPS’s decision suggests that they currently don’t think there’s enough evidence to lay charges against anyone. Equally, they haven’t thrown the whole file out). Huhne’s troubles are also causing a certain amount of coalition friction. Tories moan

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

WEB EXCLUSIVE: Full-length interview with IDS

I have interviewed Iain Duncan Smith for tomorrow’s Spectator. In print, space is always tight and we kept it to 1,500 words. One of the beauties of online is that you can go into detail in political debate that you never could with print: facts, graphs (my guilty pleasure) and quotes. Here is a 2,300-word version of the IDS interview, with subheadings so CoffeeHousers can skip the parts that don’t interest them. I’ve known him for years, and remember how hard it was to get out of his room four years ago when he started on the subject of gang culture and the merits early intervention. Now, he’s in the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Recalcitrant police forces

Applications to be the next commissioner of the Metropolitan Police closed at noon today. But thanks to the Home Office and the police, the best candidate for the job — Bill Bratton — hasn’t been allowed to even apply. The energy which was put into barring him shows just how determined the police and the Home Office are to prevent any outside talent from being brought into the police. Number 10, though, maintains that it still wants to appoint outsiders to positions of authority in the police, even though it is now trying to claim that the commissioner of the Met was the wrong place to start this process. It

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

EXCLUSIVE: IDS on British jobs

Last week, George Osborne boasted that Britain has the second-fastest job creation in the G7. In tomorrow’s Spectator, we disclose official figures showing that 154 per cent of the employment increase can be accounted for by foreign-born workers. We on Coffee House have often questioned Labour’s record: 99.9 per cent of the rise in employment was accounted for by foreign-born workers. The graphs for the Labour years and the coalition year are below:     The idea of 154 per cent is strange, so I will reproduce the raw figures below:     Now, no one outside Westminster expects the UK labour market to change the day a new government is elected,

David Blackburn

Riot sentencing row brews

David Cameron promised that looters would feel the full force of the law. Courts have been sitting round the clock holding defendants on remand and issuing stern sentences. This is causing disquiet in some circles. Lib Dem MPs complain that the government has overacted, incapable of resisting the temptation to take draconian decisions without adequate scrutiny. Tessa Munt told the Guardian that the government’s approach “smacks of headline grabbing by Conservatives, not calm, rational policy-making.” Lady Hamwee also told the paper that it would be a “great pity if what [the justice secretary] Ken Clarke has been doing – finding a better way of sentencing – was to be undone.” Much

David Blackburn

With an eye on 2015, Osborne is ramping up the growth agenda

30,000 new jobs by 2015: that is the glittering prediction made by the government as it announces the creation of more enterprise zones this morning. 11 zones* have been identified in total, tailored to foster the expansion of hi-tech manufacturing industries away from London and the M4 corridor. Enterprise zones certainly have their critics – notably the Work Foundation’s Andrew Sissons, who told the Today programme that they were merely an “expensive way of moving jobs around the country.” But the coalition is adamant that it has learnt from past mistakes, insisting that the policy will rebalance the economy and rejuvenate regions that have been “left behind”. There has been

Tuesday

David Blackburn

Government expected to renew growth strategy

The word flying around Westminster this evening is that the government is going to announce a fresh package to stimulate growth tomorrow. In line with recent reports, the expectation is that new enterprise zones will be unveiled. Enterprise zones are, of course, the linchpin of the chancellor’s current strategy, offering generous tax breaks for start-up industries, relaxed planning regulations and investment in state-of-the-art broadband, so this would not be a novel move. But an announcement would be timely nonetheless. Lamentable inflation figures released today are set to be joined by poor employment figures tomorrow, suggesting that economic and business confidence may be becoming even more tentative, especially in deprived areas. The grim continental situation is also a matter of grave

David Blackburn

The phone hacking saga bursts back to life

The phone hacking saga has burst back to life this afternoon, with the publication of a letter by Clive Goodman that contradicts much of the evidence given by News International Executives to the Culture, Media and Sport Committee. Goodman’s letter (which you can read here) , apparently written on 2 March 2007, states that phone hacking was widely discussed in editorial meetings at the News of the World and that senior executives were informed of the practice, contrary to their protestations that Goodman was a lone rogue reporter. Goodman alleges that Andy Coulson banned references to phone hacking in meetings and then offered to save Goodman’s job if the disgraced reporter did not

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Inflation rises yet again

“Inflation destroys nations and societies as surely as invading nations do. Inflation is the parent of unemployment. It is the unseen robber of those who have saved. No policy which puts at risk the defeat of inflation – however great the short-term attraction – can be justified”. That was Margaret Thatcher, speaking in 1980 when inflation was much higher but British politicians actually cared about it. You won’t even hear the Governor of the Bank of England denounce today’s figures: CPI at 4.4 per cent and the traditional measure of inflation, RPI, at 5.0 per cent. It is seen as just another statistic. The government has also chosen to announce

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron’s missed opportunity

As David noted earlier, the big headline in Nick Clegg’s speech this morning is that the government will hold some kind of inquiry into the riots after all. This climb down in the face of demands from Ed Miliband makes it all the more baffling that Cameron didn’t announce his own inquiry earlier. If he had taken the initiative, he could have determined both its terms of reference and membership which would have ensured that it came up with the right answers. But, in policy terms, I suspect the more important announcement is that prisoners leaving jail will now be placed straight into the work programme. The work programme, masterminded

David Blackburn

Clegg makes his mark

This morning’s papers have been replete with rumours about Nick Cleg engineering some sort of official investigation into the riots, having brokered a deal between the government and Ed Miliband. Clegg has just delivered his post-riots speech. He ruled out a public inquiry (presumably on grounds of cost), but revealed that Whitehall is “tendering a contract for research” into broken communities: his Victims and Communities Commission. This is a minor victory for Clegg, who has marked his sign on these events, albeit in a wishy-washy way. It is also a limited victory for Ed Miliband, who first initiated talks of an inquiry.    

David Blackburn

Clegg joins the jamboree

Cometh the hour, cometh Nick Clegg. The Independent reports that the Deputy Prime Minister is to announce that first-time offenders convicted of looting but not given custodial sentences will be forced to do community service in the very streets that they ransacked. The government hopes to ensure that community sentences are robust, inculcating a sense of responsibility in first-time offenders and insulating them from malign criminal influences. The Probation Service already oversees similar community service programmes and will do so with this one, which Clegg is calling ‘Community Payback’. Clegg’s views also allow him to reposition the Liberal Democrats to an extent. The moisture that often characterises his rhetoric has dried

Monday

David Blackburn

IDS and the renewal of society

Iain Duncan Smith has made two notable media appearances today and his comments will reveal how the government’s plan to fight gangs and lawlessness will unfold. He has just told Sky News that cuts to local youth programmes should be revisited. If the government reverses some of these decisions, it might satisfy the need for a positive policy angle, as described by James earlier. On the other hand, some Tories voice private concerns about reversing spending decisions, fearing that it would play into the Harmanite school of thought that cuts are to blame in part. Youth schemes and work are IDS’ inclusive carrot, but he also wields a coercive stick. He has

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron and Miliband’s differences

David Cameron and Ed Miliband both gave speeches on the riots this morning and the political dividing lines between the two are becoming more and more apparent. Cameron argues that these riots were about culture not poverty, Miliband thinks you can’t ignore inequality. Cameron believes that society needs two parent families, Miliband that it is about parental responsibility. Cameron doesn’t want an enquiry, Miliband does. The challenge for Cameron now is to turn the social analysis in his speech, which I think was broadly correct, into actual policy. Already in Conservative circles, people are saying that if Cameron really does want to support two parent families then surely he must

Sunday

David Blackburn

“Zero tolerance”

The law and order debate has come full circle: the coalition is going to be tough on crime and tough on the causes of crime. David Cameron’s promise that crime and anti-social behaviour will receive “zero-tolerance” recalls the rhetoric and politics of the Major and Blair years, an indication that, despite the annual celebration at lower crime rates and higher prison numbers, progress has been merely statistical. As James has noted, the success of the Cameron premiership now rests on delivering “zero tolerance”. Cameron is fortunate that the policies required are already in place, for the most part. Planned police reform will be essential, as will the radical plans for

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

From the archives: the Bill Bratton edition

As James Forsyth says today, No10 wants Bill Bratton to not just take charge of the Met but start a revolution in policing. A ‘Stop Bratton’ campaign has duly begun with Sir Hugh Orde, himself a candidate for the job, saying that he’s not sure he wants to “learn about gangs from an area of America that has 400 of them.” But it’s worth noting, though, that Bratton has advised the British government before: in June 2006, at the beginning of John Reid’s tenure at the Home Office. Allister Heath (now editor of CityAM) went to meet him and reported back in The Spectator. His piece is below. ‘You can control

Saturday

David Blackburn

Boris’ long-game strategy

Has the sheen come off BoJo? The question is echoing around some virtual corridors in Westminster this weekend. The Mayor of London was caught off guard by the recent riots and his initial decision to remain en vacances made him look aloof and remote, a sense that grew during his disastrous walkabout in Clapham. Then he joined Labour in calls for cuts in the police budget to be reversed, a decision that reeked on opportunism, superficially at least. The FT’s Jim Pickard has an excellent post on these matters and he reveals that Boris Johnson has been voicing these concerns in private for months and that he has a brace

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Blunt’s flawed rehabilitation programme

The decisions of Crispin Blunt, the prisons’ minister, are hard to fathom. One wonders why-as the Daily Mail reports today — he allowed a man convicted of killing five people to give an unapologetic interview to a magazine. Blunt’s defence is that it wouldn’t have been right for him to stop it. That may be the case but that doesn’t explain his decision to send a press officer to assist with the whole procedure. Rehabilitating prisoners is vital if we are going to tackle crime in this country. But it is hard to see how this kind of thing — or parties in prison — help that noble aim. Rather