Treasury

A tax battle that the government won’t be able to avoid

The government is very pleased with itself today for closing a couple of tax loopholes such that Barclays will have to pay £500 million more to the Exchequer. And little wonder why. Not only does it support their rhetoric about a ‘tougher approach’ to tax avoidance, but — on the principle that ‘every little helps’ — it also hammers another few chips from the deficit. Broadly speaking, this sort of action is uncontroversial. In the battle of wits over taxation, the government is well within its legal rights to close loopholes, just as companies are well within theirs to exploit them. But this case is complicated by the fact that

Alex Massie

Osborne, Laffer & the Cost of Black Gold Populism

As you’d expect, Brother Hoskin offers a fair summary of George Osborne’s difficulties with fuel duty. Osborne, backed it should be said by Danny Alexander, decided to pay for his fuel policies by levying additional taxes on North Sea oil production. How’s that worked out? Entirely predictably: North Sea Oil production fell by 18% last year* – the biggest fall ever. By some estimates, this cost the Treasury more than £2bn in lost oil revenues and thus, probably, rather more cash than Osborne planned to raise from his increased taxes on oil and gas. Moreover, there was just half as much new exploration in 2011 as there was in 2010

Why property tax rises aren’t the answer

When Tim Montgomerie first started calling for new wealth taxes I was horrified. Sweden has only just abolished its wealth tax after seeing hundreds of billions of kroner leave the country in capital flight over a number of years. Other countries have found wealth taxes are associated with narrow bases, high costs of collection and often very unfair treatment for different classes of assets. We should not replicate that here. As his proposals have been refined though, it isn’t that bad. More bands would be a relatively reasonable way of making the Council Tax system more progressive. It might require a revaluation which would be politically toxic, and it would

Your guide to all those tax cut proposals

Nick Clegg, Ed Balls, Liam Fox, David Davis, the Centre for Policy Studies, the Centre for Social Justice and the Sun. It seems almost everyone thinks George Osborne should cut taxes in his Budget next month — the only disagreements are over how. Here’s a quick guide to the main proposals so far: There will doubtless be other suggestions before 21 March when we will finally learn which, if any, Osborne has chosen. UPDATE: The table originally gave the cost of the CPS’ corporation tax cut as £8.5bn. This is their ‘static’ estimate of the cost, but a more realistic estimate, derived from the Treasury’s ready reckoner, is £4bn.

James Forsyth

A taxing problem for George Osborne

Today’s FT reports that additional council tax bands are being considered as part of the Budget process. But there are several problems with introducing new council tax bands. First, this would require a wider revaluation, something that the coalition has ruled out explicitly and that would almost certainly drive up council tax for most people.   A revaluation, as a parliamentary question from George Osborne’s former chief of staff Matt Hancock established, would cost around £200 million. It would also take two to three years to complete, meaning revenues from any new band wouldn’t start accruing until either very close to, or even after, the next election.    Finally, higher

Osborne accidentally makes the case for more savings

Rhetoric aside, what’s the difference between left and right in British politics? You won’t catch either party quantifying it, because the answer embarrasses both. The ever-cautious George Osborne is cutting just 0.6 percentage points a year more from government departments than Labour planned to (see table, above). The great joke is that the difference between the two parties is actually within the margin of error. Government is a gargantuan machine that just can’t be controlled to that degree of precision: a billion quid is, to Whitehall, a rounding error.   Today’s public finances have demonstrated that. The UK government had actually intended to borrow around £102 billion at this stage

A warning for Osborne and his economic agenda

Why did Moody’s downgrade Britain to AAA with a negative outlook, but leave other countries on AAA? One crucial factor is the scale of our debt increase: 60 per cent over the parliament. You won’t find it mentioned much today. The Chancellor is talking about austerity, helped by Balls who talks about his harsh deep cuts. Osborne today swears to keep ‘dealing with the debt’ — but his definition of ‘dealing with debt’ would even make an Italian blush: As Balls said on the radio this morning, the plan isn’t working. But Balls’ narrative — that Osborne is cutting harsh and deep — is untrue, as Moody’s knows. Osborne’s real

Moody’s puts UK’s AAA rating on negative outlook

‘It’s now clear that Britain’s economic reputation is on the line at the next general election, another reason for bringing the date forward and having that election now … For the first time since these ratings began in 1978, the outlook for British debt has been downgraded from stable to negative.’ So said George Osborne when S&P placed Britain’s AAA credit rating on a negative outlook in May 2009, when Labour were in power. But guess what? Another credit-rating agency — Moody’s — has just done the same to our rating this evening. Given how much Osborne made of Britain being a ‘safe haven’, it’s rather a tricky one for

The 50p tax debate won’t be settled this year — but it might be escalated

More evidence this morning that the government won’t be dropping the 50p rate any time soon, in the form of an interview with Danny Alexander. ‘This is not the time to be looking to reduce the tax burden on the wealthy,’ he says to the Daily Telegraph’s James Kirkup and Robert Winnett. This is a line that other ministers have deployed recently, and not just Lib Dems. And it suggests that the coalition is confident that HMRC’s forthcoming review of the rate will say that it does indeed raise revenue. But the matter won’t end there. The IFS recently said of the HMRC review that, ‘tax records for just one

A Lib Dem demand that the Tories should get behind

Remember those Lib Dem calls for a mansion tax at the weekend? I said at the time that, ‘the Lib Dems appear to be drawing more attention to which of their own policies they are fighting for within government, whether those policies make it to the statute books or not.’ Well, now they’re at it again. Nick Clegg is giving a speech this morning in which he’ll urge George Osborne to go ‘further and faster’ in raising the income tax threshold to £10,000 a year. It was the stand-out policy of the Lib Dem manifesto, so it’s hardly controversial that Clegg should want to see it enacted ASAP. But it’s

What’s more important to Cameron: actual fairness or presentational fairness?

James has already blogged the Sunday Telegraph’s interview with David Cameron, but some other things stand out from it — and not just the PM’s unthinking attack on Ed Balls either, for which he has since apologised. Take these paragraphs on tax, for instance: ‘The Prime Minister effectively rules out any move towards a “mansion tax” — a levy on high-priced properties proposed by the Liberal Democrats — or indeed any new tax on wealth. “I don’t believe, generally speaking, we should be looking at endless additional taxes.” However, he signals that the 50p top rate of income tax, on earnings above £150,000, will remain for the time being, despite

A sliver of Christmas comfort for George Osborne

There’s some rare good news for the government in today’s public finance statistics. Public sector net borrowing in November is estimated at £18.1 billion, down from £20.4 billion last year. This means that total borrowing for the first eight months of this financial year is £88.3 billion, down 11 per cent on last year. That’s lower than expected, and puts us on target to undershoot the OBR’s forecast of £127 billion in 2011-12. That’d be a relief for the coalition, after Labour hit them hard when the OBR upped their borrowing forecasts last month. But this deficit reduction cannot be put down to spending restraint in Whitehall. In fact, central

An early Christmas present for the coalition

It has only taken several months of bitter negotiation and a national strike to get here, but a deal between the unions and the government over public sector pensions could finally be in sight. Danny Alexander has just announced the details in Parliament, but basically it seems that, across a range of schemes, the coalition has offered kinder accrual rates than it did in November. And this more generous proposal has now been accepted in principle, or at least not turned down, by 26 of the 28 relevant unions. Among those who still oppose it outright are the PCS, led by everyone’s favourite union malcontent, Mark Serwotka. What happens next,

Obsorne’s banking reforms are only the start of a solution

‘The most far-reaching reforms of British banking in modern history.’ That’s how George Osborne called it in Parliament this afternoon, in a statement that contained few surprises. What the government’s doing, in large part, is to follow exactly the recommendations contained in September’s Vickers Report. But is that really as far-reaching, or as radical, as the Chancellor would have us believe?   Certainly, many of these reforms are encouraging: measures such as ‘bail-ins’ and ‘living wills’ should facilitate the orderly winding-up of insolvent institutions, and reduce the necessity for taxpayer bailouts. But other parts of the government’s reform package are less convincing. For instance, additional capital buffers and reductions in

Oborne: Cameron Will Eventually Have To Sack Osborne

My old chum and occasional cricket skipper Peter Oborne is at it again. Causing mischief, that is. Peter – who once compared David Cameron to Disraeli and still, I think, has great hopes for the Prime Minister – thinks the time will soon come for Cameron to sack his Chancellor. That’s not quite what he says but it is the logical implication of a column in which he complains that George Osborne is not much more than a part-time Chancellor of the Exchequer: Cameron is addicted to Osborne, in rather the same way that Tony Blair was addicted to Peter Mandelson, and for the same reasons. He feels that he

Picketing Parliament

By way of Spectating, I thought I’d take a quick stroll along Westminster’s picket lines. And, to be honest, there isn’t a huge amount to see, as yet. The groups of around five or six industrial actioneers outside some departments trump the small pile of placards outside the Treasury. There are about thirty to forty people picketing Parliament itself. The photo I shot hastily on my iPhone, above, should give you the sense of it. The striking workers I spoke with, however, were bullish about people turning up later in the day, especially with the march that’s happening this afternoon — as well as for the strike’s general progress in

Growth has upset Osborne’s plans — and it’s likely to get worse

The real story, as everyone expected, wasn’t in the Pre-Budget Report ‘Green Book’ — but in the supplementary document produced by the Office for Budgetary Responsibility. Growth forecasts have taken a dive. And while that is both unsurprising and not all that revealing, it carries grim implications for so much else. I mean, just look at the graphs we produced in our last post: forecasts for debt, unemployment and borrowing are all up. It is not a pretty picture. But despite the dreariness of it all, I suspect that the numbers are far too optimistic. The clue comes at the start of the OBR report: ‘The central economic and fiscal

The Autumn Statement: What you need to know

We’ve been posting some of these charts on Twitter, but here they are, collected, for CoffeeHousers. You can expect more as we mine deeper into the OBR’s supplementary document. Do shout out, also, if you spot anything yourself. 1. Weaker growth — except for a very optimistic figure for 2015 2. Higher debt — both in real terms and as percentage of GDP   3. Osborne borrowing more than he’d hoped 4. More persistent — and deeper — ILO unemployment 5. The squeeze continues until 2013

Why infrastructure isn’t a magic tonic for the economy

Growth plans are a high growth industry — with every day bringing yet another set of ideas, from one quarter or another, for how the government can fix the economy. And one suggestion pops up quite frequently in all these plans: bring forward spending on infrastructure. This is often presented as a simple thing to do, with few (if any) downsides. But how realistic is this? We know that infrastructure is important for growth. Economic texts generally suggest that the ‘multiplier effect’ (when government spending leads to more private spending later on) from is higher for infrastructure spending than for spending in other areas, such as health and welfare. We

The 40p Tax Rate is Much More Important than the 50p Rate

Clarissa Tan made a number of fine points about the utility of the 50p rate of income tax yesterday. Tim Montgomerie makes some more at ConservativeHome today under the headline “Osborne is warned that Britain will lose its high earners if he doesn’t abolish 50p tax band.” Maybe, but he might lose the next election if he does. This is not the 1980s. It was possible then to persuade middle-income voters that tax rates north of 80% were foolish, punitive and counter-productive. Making a comparable case for abolishing the 50p rate is a much more difficult prospect. If these were happy times matters might be different but they are not