Trade

The ports would reek from the smell of rotting fish. Factories would close en masse as orders got snarled up in red tape. There would be chaos at the borders as deliveries were blocked, and services would hit a wall of ‘non-tariff barriers’ that would make it impossible for British firms to sell them across Europe.  We have heard a lot over the last few weeks about how much disruption our departure from the European Union was causing for exporters, and there were lots of stories about firms that might go out of business or would have to move production to France or Poland. Membership of the single market, despite

A year ago today Britain awoke to a rather muted celebration – which seemed to consist largely of a bubble car driving around Parliament Square with a Union Jack in tow – ready to face up to a brave new future outside the EU. Who would have imagined then that the Observer would mark the first anniversary by running a leading article condemning the EU as ‘shambolic’ and instead praising Boris Johnson’s government for something Britain did all by itself? Of course, the Observer’s judgement is only in respect to one thing: the EU’s joint vaccination procurement programme. Nevertheless, it is something rather important, on which a great number of

For all the recent talk from ministers that the UK government has plenty in common with the new Biden administration, there hasn’t been much of an opportunity yet for Boris Johnson to build ties. After Joe Biden’s inauguration today that will change. Until Biden and his team are sworn in, there can be no direct contact between them and a foreign government. This is why in recent months ministerial teams have instead focused their attention on meeting influential Democrats in the wider party and working out their plan of action for when channels open. So, who are the key players on the UK side when it comes to building on the special relationship? Boris

The debate over the so-called ‘genocide amendment’ to the trade bill raises interesting questions about the balance of powers, and responsibilities, between the executive, parliament and the courts. The amendment, which has already passed the Lords, would give English courts the power to rule on whether a state is committing genocide — should the government seek a trade deal with that state, the executive would have to seek parliamentary approval first. But beyond the constitutional questions, the amendment also tells us a lot about how UK policy towards China is likely to evolve in the coming years. In the last year, the UK’s position on China has shifted dramatically. As I say in the

It is four and a half years since the British people voted to take back control of their money, their borders, their laws, and their waters and to leave the European Union. And earlier this year we fulfilled that promise and we left on Jan 31 with that oven-ready deal. Since that time we have been getting on with our agenda: enacting the points based immigration system that you voted for and that will come into force on Jan 1 – and doing free trade deals with 58 countries around the world and preparing the new relationship with the EU. And there have been plenty of people who have told

Factories will close. Prices will rise. Profits will suffer. Another day, another warning of disaster from one of the major car manufacturers about the catastrophic cost of a no-deal Brexit. But hold on. Before anyone’s eyes start to glaze over, there is a twist to this one. It is a German company that is starting to worry about the hit to its bottom line. And, in truth, it is hardly likely to be the last. Yesterday, BMW, which used to be the most formidable manufacturer of upmarket automobiles until Tesla came along, went public for the first time about the financial impact of Britain leaving the EU without a deal.

It’s not axiomatic that taxes must rise to pay for the pandemic, if you seriously believe the surge in growth, jobs and prosperity that will follow the rollout of a hyper-efficient national vaccination programme will generate sufficient revenues for Rishi Sunak to stabilise the public finances, albeit at the highest level of debt ever seen in modern times. On the other hand, the Chancellor is surely pondering this question: in the current mood of public gratitude for the NHS and government support for the economy, there must be taxes I can tweak that won’t lose sackloads of Tory votes and might chip the peak off the debt mountain — so

Poor Tony Abbott. It would seem being prime minister of Australia doesn’t bring you to the attention of the British media. To come into its sights you must be put forward for a role as UK trade adviser. Then they will discover your existence and aim to destroy whatever reputation they didn’t know you had with the usual modern British charge-sheet. This time the charge was led by Kay Burley. The latest advertisements for her Sky television show boast that Burley is ‘always formidable, rigorous, fair, honest and searching’, among much else. Perhaps Burley hadn’t seen the advert. Certainly she displayed no such qualities when she discovered the existence of

Downing Street now thinks that the chances of a Brexit deal are down to 30 or 40 per cent, I say in The Times today. The sticking point is, rather surprisingly, state aid. Since Margaret Thatcher’s election in 1979, the UK has been sniffy about the idea of government ‘picking winners’. It doesn’t use much state aid (less than half the EU average, according to the Commission’s figures), but the Johnson government doesn’t want to commit itself to something similar to the EU’s regime – it wants to use the power of the state to develop what it sees as the industries of the future. One figure with intimate knowledge of the

The UK will nominate Liam Fox to be director-general of the World Trade Organisation. I understand that the decision to nominate the former trade secretary, who has been lobbying heavily for the job, was made last night. There were those in Whitehall who were opposed to nominating Fox. They argued that it was too soon after the UK had become an independent member of the WTO to put forward a candidate and that it would be better to concentrate on some more junior positions that the UK would have a better chance of getting. Boris Johnson, however, wasn’t persuaded by these arguments. He wants to use the UK’s G7 presidency next