Tory leadership race

Thursday

Sarah Vine

What’s the point of the NHS if it doesn’t work?

We left prepared. Bottles of water, protein snacks, phone chargers, portable Scrabble (even the teenagers can look at the internet for only so long). And we left early: our crossing was at 2 p.m., and by 9 a.m. we were already on the M25. Six-hour queues, we’d been warned. Armageddon on the M2. Somewhere around Maidstone, I got a text. P&O Ferries: ‘We regret our sailings are delayed by up to 45 minutes.’ Uh-oh. But as we descended into Dover, zero sign of trouble. We sailed through check-in. ‘So sorry there’s a bit of a delay,’ said the man in the booth. No worries, said we, pathetically grateful not to

Friday

Ross Clark

Rishi Sunak is not stealing from the poor to give to the rich

Until this morning this had been Rishi Sunak’s week. While Liz Truss found herself trying to talk her way out of her rapidly-abandoned policy for regional pay boards – which she accused others of misrepresenting but couldn’t seem to explain herself – Rishi Sunak emerged the surprise winner from a show of hands among Sky’s hand-picked audience last night. But no sooner had Sunak started his comeback than he was knocked down with an embarrassment of his own: the New Statesman obtained footage of him boasting to an audience in Tunbridge Wells last Friday that: I managed to start changing the funding formulas to make sure that areas like this

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Will there be blackouts this winter?

The debate about energy has, understandably, concentrated on what is going to happen to households bills. The numbers are alarming. The energy price cap is now predicted to peak at £3,649 in April 2023, meaning that the average household bill will be above £3,000 for more than a year. As I say in the Times today, this is going to require a response from whoever is prime minister. As Covid showed, in times of crisis contracts across borders are not always honoured But less attention has been paid to the question of whether there’ll be sufficient energy this autumn and winter. National Grid is suggesting that the UK will avoid

Ross Clark Ross Clark

Bring on the housing crash!

It has been a long time coming, given that shares and bonds have been falling for most of the year, but this morning there are the first signs of a slide in house prices. Don’t get too excited: the Halifax House Price Index fell by just 0.1 per cent month on month, and prices are still up 11.8 per cent year on year.  But it is an indication that things might finally be changing in a market which has seemed to defy logic ever since the arrival of Covid. Yes, the deepest recession in recorded history was accompanied by a boom in house prices. Even when interest rates began to

Thursday

Coffee House

Sunak and Truss’s Q&A with Sky – the reaction

Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss were quizzed by Sky News’s Kay Burley and undecided Tory members this evening, with Truss the runaway favourite according to the bookies. Refresh this page for the reaction. 9.30 p.m. – Is this a turning point? Katy Balls writes… Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss faced an audience of undecided Tory members this evening. Both received a grilling. But when the audience were asked who had won them over, the former Chancellor had a big majority of the audience. Now of course, these are the undecided – and all the polling suggests many have already decided in favour of Truss. However, Sunak’s team needed something to show the

James Kirkup James Kirkup

The case for an October election

Neither Liz Truss nor Rishi Sunak would name Gordon Brown as an inspiration, but I wonder if whoever becomes PM next month might take a lesson from Brown’s premiership and call a snap general election. This might sound like a frankly mad idea. Inflation is soaring and dreadful energy bills are about to hit. The Conservatives are behind Labour in the polls, demoralised and divided. Surely a new prime minister going to the country would be committing spectacular electoral suicide? Maybe. But politics is all about making the least bad choice, and I can’t help wondering if an immediate election wouldn’t be the least bad option for that new PM. 

The Spectator

Can Liz Truss be trusted?

Liz Truss has taken the lead in the Tory leadership race with an agenda that seems radical and ambitious, whereas Rishi Sunak appears to offer only elegantly managed decline. Truss promises instant relief from the rising cost of government; Sunak offers to reverse barely half of his own tax rises – and over the course of the rest of the decade. To promise more, he says, is to sell ‘fairytales’. Truss says a better future is possible with enough vision, ideas and, perhaps most importantly, resolve. Ms Truss came up with a promising idea this week: regional pay boards, so that civil service salaries could be set relative to the

Matthew Parris Matthew Parris

This is no way to pick a prime minister

‘Truss’s campaign to be Britain’s next prime minister,’ wrote one political commentator this week, ‘seems to have unstoppable momentum. She has won the backing of heavyweights Tom Tugendhat, Brandon Lewis and the Chancellor, Nadhim Zahawi.’ Across a range of commentary you will see that word ‘momentum’ used in this sense in the weeks ahead. I am uncomfortable about what drives it. You may realise that if I were still a member of the Conservative party I would be voting for Rishi Sunak this month. Of the two candidates he is plainly less likely to win. So you may well think my discomfort with the procedure by which Liz Truss has

Matt Ridley

How to be PM: ten rules for the next Tory leader to live by

You’ve just become prime minister. The public finances are in a mess, the Bank of England has stoked inflation, cutting taxes may make it worse, energy prices are through the roof, people are hurting so you can’t cut social spending, the Health Service is lengthening its waiting lists despite record budgets. What can you do? Given that you will be hearing a lot from people who do governing all day, here are ten things to remember on behalf of the rest of us – the governed: Assume all public bodies have the same goal – and it isn’t what it says on the tin. You might think the Committee for

The Spectator

Letters: How Rishi Sunak could beat the odds

Injured party Sir: Prue Leith’s short interlude as a Conservative party member and subsequent resignation underlines a feature of the current membership and the impact of resignations (Diary, 30 July). The Johnson era has seen the continuing decline in party membership brought about by the resignation of many members who were dissatisfied with the evidence of endemic dysfunctionality by the Prime Minister. The consequence is that the membership is likely to be dominated by Johnson diehards. Liz Truss is certainly focusing on them. Those who did not renew their membership but are still likely to be Conservative supporters in a general election are now disenfranchised. Sir Charles Walker is right

Katy Balls Katy Balls

What foreign policy would look like under a PM Truss

When Tom Tugendhat announced he was backing Liz Truss for prime minister, his former supporters were dismayed. He was the candidate for the ‘One Nation’ caucus of moderate MPs, who defined themselves against the Tory right. ‘Anyone but Truss’ was their mantra – and they lined up behind Rishi Sunak. Yet here was their former poster boy supporting their nemesis. What could Truss and Tugendhat possibly have in common? The answer can be summed up in a word: China. For better or worse, Truss is an instinctive politician. On foreign affairs, she was held back by Boris Johnson, who was more cautious on China. If she becomes prime minister, which

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Why the Tories must face the truth about energy bills

One influential figure on the centre-left told me recently that he isn’t bothered about who wins the Tory leadership contest. He argued that the tsunami of problems waiting to hit the new leader – rising energy prices, inflation and a creaking NHS, to name but a few – means the Tories will be in trouble regardless of whether it’s Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak who triumphs. These issues are enough to sink any government, but especially one that has been in power for 12 years. Given how Boris Johnson dominated politics, whoever succeeds him will to some extent feel like a fresh start. But they won’t be able to pull

Fiona Unwin

How Rishi Sunak won over the Tories of West Suffolk

‘I’ve cancelled my exercise class for this! I hope he’s worth it,’ said Selina in the hotel lobby. Rishi Sunak was coming to West Suffolk to meet members of our Conservative Association. Would he be worth a listen? Clearly our members thought so. More than 90 of us rocked up at one day’s notice to meet Rishi (or Sushi, as one of our older members kept calling him). Rishi wanted to pitch for our votes. His strategy is to introduce himself to as many members as possible. Last weekend, he met 2,000 activists in constituencies where 10,000 Tory members are based. He needs every single one of our votes if

The Spectator

Portrait of the week: Hosepipe bans, England’s women win the Euros and a strike over dragons

Home BP reported quarterly profits of £6.9 billion, its biggest for 14 years, after oil and gas prices rose steeply. Typical domestic energy bills were forecast by the consultancy Cornwall Insight to go above £3,600 a year in the coming winter. Under the family scheme for visas, 31,300 Ukrainians had arrived in the United Kingdom, and 72,700 under the sponsorship scheme. British Airways suspended new ticket sales for short-haul flights from Heathrow until at least 15 August, to meet the airport’s limit on the number of passengers departing each day of 100,000. On 1 August, 696 migrants crossed the Channel in small boats; in July the total was 3,683, and

Wednesday

Kate Andrews

Sajid Javid turns on Rishi Sunak

Liz Truss has been rolling out the endorsements this week, and tonight she adds one of the Tory’s most established politicians to her list. Former Health Secretary Sajid Javid has endorsed the Foreign Secretary, praising her ‘willingness to challenge the status quo.’ The endorsement is not wholly surprising; with several polls out in the past few days giving Truss a very comfortable lead amongst Tory members, anyone thinking about the make-up of the next cabinet might feel increasingly inclined to make their support known. The real surprise is in the pointed commentary towards Truss’s competitor Rishi Sunak, whom Javid implies is ‘sleepwalking’ the UK ‘into a big-state, high-tax, low-growth, social

Tuesday

Matthew Lynn

Only one tax cut can save Rishi Sunak

Rishi Sunak’s promises on tax are lacklustre. He’s announced a fiddly one-off tax break on energy that will last for just a year which hardly anyone will notice due to inflation. There’s also income tax cuts up to seven years in the future, even though he is hardly likely to be Prime Minister by then (and he seldom keeps any promises on taxation for more than a few hours anyway).  Sunak’s promises and u-turns on taxes are making him look inconsistent at best, and a cynical opportunist at worst. The Tory members are right to regard his words with suspicion. But there is one tax cut that could still win the membership over: abolishing inheritance

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Is Liz Truss too comfortable?

After England scored their first goal last night, the team visibly relaxed and had a spell of playing happily until Germany equalised. Liz Truss was in the crowd and saw that sudden surge in confidence up close. Tonight we saw the same from the frontrunner. She enjoyed the latest hustings in Exeter, making jokes about how all the popular misconceptions of her were true. At times it seemed as though the interviewer (Seb Payne, formerly of this parish) and the audience were trying to find out more about what she’d do when she was in No. 10, not if. By contrast, the questions to Rishi Sunak were more about why

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

The real difference between Sunak and Truss’s tax policies

The Tory leadership race is becoming a test of patience. Today Rishi Sunak has laid out his plan to slash tax: not in a matter of days or weeks, as Liz Truss has pledged to do, but by the end of the next parliament. He’s promised to reduce the base rate of income tax by 20 per cent, by taking 1p off income tax in 2024 (as already pledged) and an additional 3p over the next parliament. As Fraser Nelson notes on Coffee House, the timing of this announcement is working against him: it’s easily characterised as a u-turn on tax cuts, when in truth the former Chancellor is far

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

Sunak is running out of time

This could be the biggest week of the Tory leadership campaign: postal ballots will start arriving on members’ doormats in the coming days and the chances are that most will fill them in and send them back pretty sharpish. Both candidates to be Prime Minister are consequently extremely busy: Rishi Sunak has been making tax cut promises (of the ‘not yet ‘variety: more on that from Fraser here) this morning, while Liz Truss has been talking about help for farmers suffering post-Brexit labour shortages. They’re both in the south west of England today ahead of the latest hustings in Exeter tonight, with visits to members and in Truss’s case, a

Stephen Arnell

Heavy is the head: ten films about the challenges facing new leaders

The Tory leadership race may already have supplied plenty of entertainment – but sometimes the real drama begins when a new ruler actually takes power. Many films have examined what can happen when an inexperienced leader assumes control, from the Biblical epic Exodus: Gods and Kings (2014) to sci-fi blockbuster Dune (2021). Others have explored the challenges that face new leaders at the helm – whether it’s being duped into invasions, subduing those who don’t accept your rule or catching conspiracists. Here are ten that might make informative (or cautionary) viewing for the next Tory leader: The King (2019) – Netflix Seriously underestimated on release, David Michôd’s (The Animal Kingdom)