Tories

Mark Reckless infuriated many Tories when he defected to Ukip. Now, he’s defected again – and made few people happy in the process. The Ukip AM has announced that he is joining the Conservative Group in the Welsh Assembly, where he sits as a regional representative. Not for the first time, he is following in the footsteps of Douglas Carswell – this time by leaving Ukip behind. And his reasons for doing so are similar to Carswell’s: Brexit means that it’s mission accomplished. In his statement, he says: ‘I am joining the Conservative Group in the Welsh Assembly. I leave Ukip positively, having achieved our joint aim, a successful referendum

The decision by Conservative MPs to walk away from the Commons Committee on Exiting the EU is one of the most unintentionally revealing abdications of duty I have seen. The report they refused to endorse was polite to the point of blandness. The necessity of securing cross-party approval meant that its restrained language bore little relation to the chaos in Whitehall the committee’s hearings had uncovered. In March, the committee’s chair, Hilary Benn, showed its extent when he submitted David Davis to a tough cross-examination which the Brexit Secretary was lamentably unable to withstand. Although ministers were parroting the line that ‘no deal was better than a bad deal’, Benn

ICM, who Vote Leave used for their own referendum polling, have some striking numbers on what elements of an EU exit deal British voters would find acceptable. 54 per cent of voters regard maintaining free movement as part of a transition deal – something that Theresa May wouldn’t rule out in her interview with Andrew Neil – as acceptable. However, there is clearly going to be a big problem with any exit payment. 64 per cent regard a £10 billion payment as unacceptable, with that figure rising to 70 per cent for a £20 billion payment—which is at the low end of what people in Brussels think Britain ought to

Theresa May is a cautious politician. She has risen to the top by avoiding unnecessary risks; no one survives 18 years on the Tory front bench by being a gambler. But few prime ministers have the luxury of choosing their battles, and she would not have chosen the two that may now define her premiership: successfully negotiating Britain’s exit from the European Union while saving the United Kingdom. If she achieves both, she will join the pantheon of great prime ministers. If she fails, she’ll be keeping Lord North company in the history books. Unlike David Cameron, May has been preparing for a new Scottish referendum from the moment she

The Tory rebellion over the tax hike on the self-employed isn’t abating, it is intensifying as I say in The Sun this morning. As one Cabinet Minister tells me, Tory MPs ‘left the Budget feeling a little bit concerned. They’ve seen the papers, and thought this isn’t good. After the emails and constituency stuff, there’ll be even more nervous’. One Tory backbencher, who is a good judge of the mood of the parliamentary party, says ‘People are not happy at all. Somethings’ got to change’. But Philip Hammond is digging in. He is ‘absolutely determined not to retreat on this’ according to one Cabinet ally of his. He has, I’m

There is a very big winner from today’s budget. Not adults in social care, not schools, but Ukip. Philip Hammond has handed a huge political opportunity: to position itself as the party of the self-employed: the taxi driver, the brickie, the plumber, the small shop-owner. These used to be natural Tories. From today, with Hammond imposing a two per cent extra tax on their income, and breaking a manifesto commitment in the process, they will be looking for a new political home. No wonder Suzanne Evans was tweeting about the change within seconds of it being made. The Treasury’s argument for raising National Insurance Contributions on the self-employed is that

Lord Heseltine has been denounced because he says he will vote against the government over Brexit in the House of Lords. It seems terrifically unfair. Has there ever been an occasion, in his long political career, when he has not been in favour of British membership of the EU (or EEC)? Why should he change now, aged 83, from that honourably held, spiritedly asserted, if wrong, position? Can’t a few Europhiles, in the mirror-image of John Major’s Eurosceptic ‘bastards’, be bastards too? The only inconsistency in Hezza’s last stand is that this is the one time in his half-century stance on Europe when he has asserted the right of Parliament

So what went wrong for the Labour Party in Copeland last night? There’s no understating the scale of the defeat – the worst by-election performance by an opposition since 1878 by some measures. It lost a seat it has held since 1935 to the Conservatives because the local MP, Jamie Reed, quit politics for a job in the nuclear industry. It’s threatening to become a trend: last night another by-election replaced Tristram Hunt, who also quit as MP for Stoke Central to run the Victoria & Albert Museum. His party held the seat last night, seeing off a noisy but shambolic Ukip campaign but let’s not pretend there’s much for

Polls have closed in the Copeland and Stoke by-elections. It is too early to say with any certainty what the results will be, but we’ll be with you on Coffee House until the results are declared. In Copeland, it is a two horse race between Labour and the Tories. The Tories aren’t predicting they’ll take it, but they do sound rather optimistic. In private, some Labour MPs are very pessimistic about this result. But this could be expectations management. If the Tories do take Copeland from Labour, it’ll be a staggering result: the governing party hasn’t taken a seat in a by-election in thirty odd years and that was in

As the government considers a ban on unpaid internships, Theresa May has been accused of pursuing a ‘purge of the posh’. Today Alec Shelbrooke appeared on Daily Politics to put forward the case for the ban. Alas, things took a questionable turn when the Tory backbencher decided that there was an apt and fair comparison to be made between unpaid interns and… the victims of the slave trade. Yes, Shelbrooke suggested that doing a week or two’s unpaid work experience was comparable to being a victim of the slave trade. In response to arguments from the IEA’s Kate Andrews that small business and charities may not be able to afford to pay

Polls have made miserable reading for Jeremy Corbyn ever since he won his first leadership election last year. And the bad news for the Labour leader is that they seem to be getting worse. The latest Ipsos Mori survey out today hands the Tories an 18 point lead, giving them a 47 per cent share of the vote. That’s the largest percentage of voters saying they’d back the Tories since before the 2010 election. It’s also a clear sign that Theresa May’s leadership is going down well with voters. Here are the numbers: Conservatives: 47% (+7) Labour: 29% (-5) Lib Dems: 7% (+1) Ukip: 6% (-3) Greens: 4% (-1) This latest

I never really agreed with the central-thesis of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy — that ‘42’ is the answer to life, the universe and everything. I have no great animus against the number — it does its job, filling that yawning gap between 41 and 43. But I had never thought it actually-special until the beginning of this week. That’s when I read that the Conservative Party was 17 points ahead in the latest opinion polls, on 42 per cent. A remarkable figure. I suppose you can argue that it says more about the current state of the Labour party than it does about Theresa May’s stewardship of the country.

Mr S has an apology to make. On Monday, Steerpike suggested that the news that Paul Weller — a man who wanted to vote for Russell Brand in the last general election — had endorsed Jeremy Corbyn wasn’t such a coup given that Labour need to convince Tory voters of his electability in order to have any chance of gaining power. However, it has now come to Mr S’s attention that the rocker is actually a former Tory. During Weller’s time in The Jam, the singer provoked controversy when he said the band supported the Conservatives: ‘I don’t see any point in going against your own country. All this “change the world” thing is

Today’s ICM poll makes grim reading for Labour MPs. The poll – based on samples taken from Friday to Sunday – shows that the Conservatives have received an impressive post-conference bounce, opening a 17-point lead over Labour: Conservatives: 43pc (up 2) Labour: 26pc (down 2) Ukip: 11pc (down 2) Lib Dems: 8pc (down 1) Greens: 6pc (up 2) To put things into perspective, if this lead were to play out in an election — on old boundary rules — the Conservatives’ majority could be boosted to 114 seats. The 17-point lead is the joint second highest ever recorded for the Conservatives by ICM — which has been polling since 1992 — only being