Tories

Today’s Queen Speech will be a muted affair, with Her Majesty dressing down for the opening of a Parliament which will stretch the Conservative Government to the limit. Theresa May heads into the new session with no majority, precious little political clout and the huge task of Brexit looming. Can the Tories somehow make it work? It’s now been nearly two weeks since the general election – yet the ‘cloud of uncertainty’ still hangs in the air, says the Daily Telegraph. There’s no reason why this should be so, argues the paper, which says the Government messed up by claiming last week that a deal with the DUP was imminent. This

Is Nicola Sturgeon, not to put too fine a point on things, losing it? Just six weeks ago this question would have seemed preposterous. But that was before the SNP’s disastrous election result. Yes, disastrous. Sure, everyone expected the SNP to lose votes and seats but no-one really thought they could lose 21; no-one really thought their share of the vote would fall by 13 points or that they would misplace almost half a million voters. No-one thought their result would be so very much worse than expected. No-one includes the opposition points and, pertinently, the SNP itself.  And in response to this, what has Nicola Sturgeon said? Only this:

Nick Timothy has penned an honest and reflective piece about the Tory election boorach. It can’t have been easy to write less than a week on from defeat and his departure from Downing Street. The most important point he makes is substantive. Theresa May abandoned the One Nation vision she sketched out on the doorstep of Number 10 upon becoming Prime Minister. It was a blueprint for a modern conservatism that believed in markets but didn’t worship them, that championed liberty but also the freedom to take advantage of its opportunities. It was a communitarian Toryism halfway between Burke and Berlin — the kind of politics advocated by Robert Halfon, sacked

How deliciously tempting it must be to do as the Times and FT has done today, along with many others since last Friday, and try to interpret the election result as somehow a vote against Brexit – or against the withdrawal from the single market. ‘The notion of a ‘hard’ (to be precise, a dogmatic and ideologically driven) Brexit should be promptly abandoned’, asserts a leader in the Times, echoing the sentiments of Tim Farron, Nicola Sturgeon, Ruth Davidson and many others. How tempting – and how utterly wrong. The claim that the election result somehow undoes last year’s referendum result runs counter to the obvious evidence: that 84 per

Theresa May’s Cabinet reshuffle in full: Michael Gove makes a Cabinet return as Environment Secretary; Damian Green is promoted to ‘First Secretary of State’, replaced as Work & Pensions Secretary by David Gauke, who is replaced as Chief Secretary to the Treasury by Liz Truss, formerly Justice Secretary. David Lidington replaces Truss; Andrea Leadsom is the new Leader of the House of Commons Liam Fox is reappointed as Secretary of State for International Trade; Justine Greening stays put as Education Secretary; Sajid Javid will remain Communities Secretary; Alun Cairns keeps his job as Secretary of State for Wales; Gavin Williamson remains Chief Whip; Jeremy Hunt stays put as Health Secretary; Chris Grayling stays as Transport Secretary; Priti

There’s an expression used in football to describe an approach to the game that discounts the virtues of elegance, style, beauty, originality and daring, and — concentrates on blocking, frustrating and grinding down. It’s called ‘winning ugly’. While degrading the game, it often works. But having won a match, a football team does not have to govern the country for five years. It does not need our love, our patience or our intellectual respect. The Conservative party attempted to win the general election by winning ugly, and in doing so, they have lost some of our love and our respect. That, I reflect, is what, without direction from the top,

Boris’s last appearance on the airwaves during the election campaign left many scratching their heads. Just what did the word ‘mugwump’ actually mean? This time, the Foreign Secretary’s attack against Jeremy Corbyn was much more straightforward: the Labour leader’s opposition to the ‘shoot to kill’ policy. Here, Corbyn has undoubtedly changed his tune: in 2015, he said he wasn’t happy with the idea; and last year, he said that he hadn’t changed his mind. In the wake of the London attack though, Corbyn backed officers being able to use lethal force in certain situations. This wishy-washy position is dangerous ground for Labour, and the Tories are doing their best to

Security is supposed to be Theresa May’s strong point. Today, it looked like her Achilles heel. The Prime Minister used a speech this morning to pit herself against Jeremy Corbyn as the one to trust on Brexit and keeping Britain safe. At the same venue as her leadership launch last year, May painted a familiar image of herself as a politician who doesn’t ‘gossip’ and gets on with the job as she accused Corbyn of an ‘abdication of leadership’. But in the Q and A afterwards, it wasn’t the Labour leader’s record which was up for discussion. Instead, it was May’s time as Home Secretary which came under close scrutiny. The Prime

Only a few weeks ago, the polls brought nothing but joy for the Tories. With just six days to go until election day, that’s no longer the case. An Ipsos MORI survey out today cuts the Conservative lead down to just five points. Labour’s support has burst through the 40 per cent mark – rising by six points since Ipsos MORI’s last poll on May 18th. The poll comes off the back of this week’s shock YouGov estimate, which suggested we could be heading for a hung Parliament. And YouGov’s updated election model for today doesn’t bring any better news for the Tories: it suggests that Theresa May will now fall

There’s a nasty shock for the Tories in the Times this morning, with the paper publishing a YouGov poll suggesting the party could lose 20 seats at next week’s election. The estimate says that we could be heading for a hung parliament and that the Conservatives might fall 16 seats short of an overall majority. Even more remarkably, YouGov’s numbers indicate Labour could up their tally of seats by almost 30. It’s difficult to overestimate just what a disaster such an outcome would be for Theresa May. The Prime Minister made the decision to call this election herself with only the guidance of her tightly-knit Downing Street team; if she fails

Until recently, the prospect of Theresa May flopping in this general election would have been absurd – but today’s YouGov poll shows her lead cut to just five points, less than a quarter of its peak. Converted into seats, that would mean a majority of just two MPs, down from the 17-strong majority achieved by David Cameron against Ed Miliband. At a time when the extraordinary is happening all the time, it is impossible to dismiss this opinion poll. The public like her style, but her shambolic U-turn over the so-called ‘dementia tax’ has given everyone cause to doubt whether she is as ‘strong and stable’ as she says she

So, the Conservatives have capitulated. After days of facing negative headlines about the ‘dementia tax’ Theresa May has given in and announced that there will, after all, be a cap on care costs faced by an individual. No wonder modern governments find it so hard to eliminate their structural deficits. So loud are the protests when they propose any tax increase or cut in spending that they are doomed to limp along with an ever-greater gap between what they feel compelled to spend and what they are politically able to raise in revenue. Public opinion may be king, but it doesn’t add up to a balanced budget. We’ve heard endlessly

‘I earned capital in the campaign, political capital, and I intend to spend it’.  That was how George W Bush put it after winning his second presidential election in 2004. He’s possibly not the best model for good governance, but the sentiment is worth pondering as Theresa May rolls on relentlessly towards victory. Mrs May will wake on June 9 with money in the bank, politically if not fiscally. She’ll have crushed and possibly split apart the Labour Party, secured her party another five years in office and stamped and stamped and stamped her personal authority on the Conservative Party.  With every day that passes, there are more whispers that

The Tories have just hit a new high in the polls: 49 per cent, handing them a 22-point lead over Labour. This margin is virtually uncharted territory for the Conservatives, with ICM pointing out that the party’s current lead has only been bettered once in the last 34 years of polling – back in May 1983. As ever, it’s less good news for Labour: the party sits on 27 per cent, according to ICM – a number which precisely matches the share of the national vote they picked up in last week’s local elections. If – and it’s a big if – this means the pollsters have pinpointed Labour’s share of