Theresa may

A nebulous press conference: Theresa May insists progress made on backstop

After a nightmare EU Council summit, Theresa May attempted to put on a brave face in her summit press conference. The Prime Minister told hacks that despite the fact the EU had refused to agree to her request for a 12 month limit to the backstop, progress had been made. As for that heated exchange between May and Jean Claude Juncker in which she appeared to call the European Commission president out for describing her as nebulous, that was merely the type of ‘robust’ conversation good friends can have. While there is reason to believe Juncker was being disingenuous in calling May ‘nebulous’ over her requests (the UK side insist

Katy Balls

Brussels reject Theresa May’s plea for backstop concessions

Theresa May’s week has gone from bad to worse. In order to win the confidence vote tabled against her on Wednesday, May had to make several promises to her MPs: not to fight the next election, to get the DUP back on side – and to find a legally binding solution to the Irish backstop. The latter pledge appears to have already hit the buffers after a disastrous night for May at the EU council summit. The Prime Minister attended the summit on Wednesday evening in the hope of securing new concessions to her Brexit deal. She asked the EU 27 to ‘work together intensely’ to tweak the deal –

Brogues gallery

I spend most of my time drawing politicians, trying to work out what makes them distinctive. The eyes, the expression, their mood: it’s all about finding people’s peculiarities and accentuating them. When I started, I’d focus on the face. Everything else was an afterthought. It wasn’t until I came across a drawing by the Norwegian cartoonist Finn Graff – a cartoon of Helmut Kohl, I think – that I realised what I had been missing. How much you can tell from someone’s shoes. I didn’t discover this, so much as rediscover it. When I was a teenager, I worked in a shoe shop in my home town of Arendal, Norway.

Victory? No, yesterday’s result weakens May’s authority still further

Theresa May has survived the vote, but her authority is weakened still further. More than a third of Tory MPs have voted against her and this is after she pledged not to fight the next election and to get legally enforceable changes to the backstop. If May had kept the number of those voting against her below 100, it would have been a good result for her. If she had kept it to below 80, it would have strengthened her position considerably. But anything over 105 was always going to be tricky for her as that meant a 1/3rd of her MPs didn’t have confidence in her. This became truer

Isabel Hardman

Heavy-handed rebel operation in no confidence vote deters Tory MPs

One of the factors driving wavering Tory MPs towards saying they will vote for Theresa May tonight is the way in which the rebel operation appears to be being conducted. It’s not just that the airwaves were dominated this morning by rather strident Brexiteers as opposed to MPs from a range of persuasions. It’s also the heavy-handed language that May’s opponents are using behind the scenes as they argue with colleagues. A number of MPs tell me they have been galvanised to support May after a ‘fairly brutal’ exchange in the Conservative MPs WhatsApp group in which Nadine Dorries, who has long called on May to consider her position, managed

Isabel Hardman

Number 10: Confidence vote is not about who leads the Tories into the next election

Theresa May doesn’t see today’s vote of no confidence as being about who will lead the Conservative party into the next election, her spokesman has just said. This is significant as it removes the possibility that the Prime Minister sees today’s result as being a mandate for her continuing as leader, when many Tory MPs do not want her to. This therefore makes it much easier for those MPs to support the Prime Minister this evening. Speaking to journalists after Prime Minister’s Questions, her spokesman said: ‘She does not believe that this vote today is about who leads the party into the next election. It is about whether it is

Isabel Hardman

How the Tory vote of no confidence in Theresa May will work

Two Tory MPs who are currently suspended from the party whip could be brought back in order to take part in today’s vote of no confidence against Theresa May, 1922 Committee Chair Graham Brady revealed this morning. Briefing journalists on the vote, Brady said he was waiting for confirmation from the Chief Whip of the size of the Tory party electoral roll, and that it depended on whether Charlie Ephicke or Andrew Griffiths had the whip restored. Both men were suspended following allegations of sexual harassment, though the Conservative party concluded in November that no further action would be taken against Griffiths. Brady also said that any MPs who were

Isabel Hardman

How No. 10’s shredded credibility could make today’s vote much closer

One of the factors that led to the triggering of a no confidence vote and that will play a huge part in the result of that vote is the way in which Number 10 has shredded its credibility in the past few days. It isn’t just the way in which Theresa May’s press operation pushed back against rumours over the weekend that the meaningful vote on Brexit would be delayed, or the way in which ministers such as Michael Gove were still claiming that there wouldn’t be a delay just hours before the announcement to the contrary. It’s also that last night Downing Street was trying to dampen speculation that

Katy Balls

Tory MPs talk up a swift Christmas leadership contest

Theresa May will tonight face a confidence vote by her MPs. Conservative MPs will vote on her fate early evening – and the results are expected to be counted immediately. The arrival of 48 letters took government figures by surprise last night. While it was clear May’s decision to shelve the vote on her Brexit deal had gone badly with chunks of Tory MPs ministers had seen its postponement as crucial to her short term survival. Now May will have to fight to stay on until that vote. Speaking to MPs in the Commons last night, it became clear that the hostilities towards May are far wider ranging than just

Mounting speculation that the 48 letters are in

The talk in Tory circles this evening is that the 48 letters are in. Two putative leadership campaigns are saying they are. But, perhaps more significantly, so is one close ally of the Prime Minister. There has, though, been no word from Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee. However, we wouldn’t expect him to say anything until he has spoken to Theresa May directly. If the letters are in, expect a quick vote. Tory MPs are on a three-line whip for Thursday and that would be the obvious time to have it. I think there is very little chance of Theresa May resigning before any vote. One long-time

Isabel Hardman

Can May really win back MPs’ trust?

How can MPs trust what ministers say after the Brexit fiasco of the past few days? That’s been the theme of the Commons emergency debate on the meaningful vote so far, with phrases like ‘shredded her credibility’ being bandied about. Initially, the most stinging criticism came from opposition MPs, but those MPs are not the usual suspects who chant blandly about how you can ‘never trust the Tories’. They’re senior backbenchers like Hilary Benn and Angela Eagle. And they speak for a large number of Tory MPs, too, who feel that there is little reason to trust what a minister or indeed a whip tells them. Those Tory MPs range

Speaker Bercow says MPs should get a say in delaying Brexit vote

Speaker Bercow has told MPs that they do deserve a vote on the government’s plan to delay its Brexit deal vote. He told the Commons this afternoon that ‘any courteous, respectful and mature environment, allowing the House to have its say on the matter would be the right and obvious course to take’. We will find out more details on the procedural aspects of the government’s plan later when Andrea Leadsom gives a statement. Bercow’s statement shows why Labour were so keen to protect him as Speaker when his job was in peril over the bullying and harassment scandal. He was always likely to be an interventionist speaker over Brexit,

Katy Balls

Why Theresa May has decided to postpone the Brexit vote

Faced with a choice between a humiliating defeat or moving a vote in order to delay a humiliating defeat, Theresa May has plumped for the latter. This morning, cabinet sources say the Prime Minister made the decision to delay the vote on her Brexit deal. Despite No.10 insisting repeatedly this morning that the vote would go ahead on Tuesday, the scale of defeat appears to have become too much and there are now plans to try and shelve it. Cabinet sources suggest that the vote will be moved to January. The vote could still go ahead if May’s opponents find a procedural ruse by which to thwart the government. This

Beyond May

On Tuesday, MPs will face something rare: a Commons motion which really does deserve to be described as momentous. It will set Britain’s place in Europe and in the world for years to come. The vote will place an especially heavy burden on Conservative MPs, for they have the power to inflict a hefty defeat on their own government, an administration which has no majority and which governs thanks only to a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP. It is all too easy to see where defeat on Tuesday could lead: to the collapse of the government, a general election and the arrival of Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street.

Portrait of the Week – 6 December 2018

Home Political hobbyists speculated on the future of Brexit if the government fell, if a new Conservative leader was chosen, if a general election was called or if a second referendum was held. Debates were tabled over five days, in prospect of a Commons vote on 11 December on the withdrawal agreement from the EU to which Theresa May, the Prime Minister, had agreed. She told the Commons that it would allow Britain to negotiate, sign and ratify new trade deals from the moment it left next March (even if none could be implemented until the end of the transition period, 31 December 2020 at the earliest, or by any

Katy Balls

What happens next?

Parliament is in deadlock over Brexit. So what can we expect in the coming days and weeks after the vote? These are the scenarios currently being war-gamed. May’s deal passes A political shock: Theresa May squeaks over the line after convincing Brexiteers that it was her deal or no Brexit — and Remainers that it was her deal or a no-deal Brexit. The DUP then rains on May’s parade. Seething over the backstop, it declares that the confidence and supply agreement is over for good. This scenario could involve delaying the initial vote in the hope this gives MPs time to come around. It passes on a second vote Theresa

James Forsyth

Brexit’s crunch point

Unless Theresa May delays the vote, 11 December 2018 might be about to become one of the most important in recent British history; more important even than 23 June 2016. If MPs vote down Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, as nearly all ministers expect them to, they will set Britain on course for either the softest possible Brexit or a second referendum. In the process, they may well split the Tory party. Theresa May’s strategy has been to play chicken with Parliament. Her team saw virtue in intransigence and calculated that at the last moment MPs would get out of her way. They thought that fear of no deal would bring

Why no deal planning should be stepped up

No-go-day was meant to be yesterday, I say in The Sun. This was the moment when the Department for Exiting the EU wanted the principal purpose of government to become getting the country ready for leaving the EU regardless of whether there was a deal or not. Number 10 argued that a vaguer deadline of late November / early December was better. They thought that this would give more time to tell whether full on ‘no deal’ prep was necessary or not. But now, Number 10 is indicating that it wants to hold off until after the meaningful vote on the 11th of December. This is not a good idea,

Is the May-Corbyn television debate pointless?

Theresa May has two weeks to sell her deal to MPs ahead of the meaningful vote on Tuesday 11 December. The fact that Philip Hammond used an interview this morning meant for selling the deal to state that at present there was no consensus in favour of it tells you everything you need to know about how that is going. There are gloomy estimates that the government could lose the vote by as much as 200 – that seems steep but a defeat around the 100 mark is beginning to seem likely. So, how does No.10 plan to turn things around? There’s a special Brexit grid which will see a