Scottish independence

So here we go again. Alex Salmond, popping up on the Andrew Marr show while Nicola Sturgeon is in China, makes news without saying anything new about the circumstances in which the SNP might – or might not! – press for a second referendum on Scottish independence. David Cameron, also overseas, responds saying there’s no need for any such plebiscite at any point in this parliament. Calm down, Jock. This will, I am sure, be well-received. All of which should surprise precisely no-one. Seventy percent of SNP supporters want another referendum before the end of this parliament; 90 percent want one within ten years. In such circumstances, you can understand why Salmond thinks another

He once said that the independence referendum was a ‘once in a lifetime’ opportunity but Alex Salmond has brushed aside any illusions that the SNP are not desperately hoping, and planning, for a second vote. On the Andrew Marr Show, Salmond said that another referendum is ‘inevitable’ and the only question is of timing — something he said is ‘very much in the hands of Nicola Sturgeon’. Salmond went on to explain three criteria that could be used to show ‘material change in circumstances’ for Scotland and thus trigger another referendum: ‘I can see three issues which are moving things towards a second referendum on a timescale yet to be determined. One is

There are few quicker ways to annoy an MP than to suggest that they are on holiday when the House of Commons isn’t sitting. Such a suggestion will be met with a tetchy and immediate list of the constituency work they are doing in recess. This week, however, marks the start of the first summer break since the election, so the honourable members should perhaps feel entitled to a rest. Indeed, most MPs who aren’t engaged in a leadership contest will be taking one. As they sink into their deckchairs, they will have plenty to think about. The election might only have been two and a half months ago, but

I wonder how many Scots who voted ‘Yes’ in last year’s referendum are watching events unfold in Greece and having second thoughts? It’s not quite a ‘there, but for the grace of God’ moment, but it’s not far off. This analogy depends upon two big assumptions, both of which will be disputed by the nationalists. The first is that Scotland would not have automatically been allowed to remain in the EU following a ‘Yes’ vote, but, as a new state, would have had to apply for membership and, as a condition of joining, would have been forced to join the euro. How questionable is this assumption? The Scottish government’s position has

Jim Murphy is quitting frontline politics with a bang. The outgoing leader of the Scottish Labour party addressed Policy Exchange this afternoon, offering his thoughts on why Labour lost the election and did so badly north of the border. Murphy revealed that he thinks another independence referendum is inevitable: ‘There will be another referendum whenever the SNP can get away with it. Why wouldn’t there? If you were an insurgent nationalist party with unprecedented power and with an absolute majority of parliamentarians in both parliaments, why wouldn’t you try and engineer certain circumstances that get you another referendum? ‘My frustration is that Cameron is so lame-assly dumb on it that he

Gordon Brown has popped up in the Guardian today to warn that the evil Tories are going to destroy the Union. The former Prime Minister laments in an op-ed the government’s attitude towards Scotland and calls for a ‘constitutional convention’ to figure out the ‘rights and responsibilities of citizens’ in different parts of the Union. If we don’t, Brown warns, the Union is in big trouble: ‘No union can survive without unionists and, after an election in which, to head off Ukip, the Conservative and Unionist party presented itself as the English Nationalist party, it is clear that the union is on life support … It is London’s equivocation over Scotland that is becoming

Neither man will much care for the comparison but, more than ever, Alex Salmond is rather like Gordon Brown. Each struggles to admit their opponents might ever have a point and that said point might be held in good faith. More importantly, each has the habit of thinking their opponents lesser mortals simply because they dare to take a different view on the great issues of the day. I thought of this today when I saw Salmond’s remarks responding to the sad news about Charlie Kennedy’s death. They were revealing remarks, just not in any way that flatters the former First Minister. Salmond, like everyone else, acknowledged Kennedy’s essential decency

Scottish Labour is having no luck in denting the SNP’s support. ComRes/ITV News have released a new poll this evening, which shows a 19 per cent swing to the SNP across the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland. Based on this, the SNP would take 28 of these seats in the upcoming general election. North of the border, ComRes puts the SNP on 43 per cent, Labour on 37, the Tories on 13 and Ukip, the Lib Dems and Greens on two per cent each. The ComRes findings fall in line with the other polls taken in Scotland from Lord Ashcroft and ICM — the latter recently suggested that the SNP would take

Is Nicola Sturgeon trying to channel Nigel Farage? Scotland’s First Minister regaled the 3,000-strong crowd at the SNP’s spring conference today with some nuggets of policy, more demands for Ed Miliband and even a swipe at Margaret Thatcher. But she also positioned herself as part of a UK-wide movement seeking to ‘shake up’ Westminster in the name of ‘ordinary people’. You might add: the Ukip of the north. SNP folk loathe being compared to Ukip. In fact, when I was writing this piece in a bar at the conference centre, I was berated by a group of Nats who spotted the headline and took me to task. But let’s face

Labour is struggling to win back voters in Scotland because of social media conspiracy theories that are difficult to debunk, the party’s campaign chief said this morning. Speaking at a LabourList event, Douglas Alexander recounted a story about a voter who supported independence and bought into a conspiracy theories about the oil companies she read on Facebook. This echo chamber poses a great challenge for parties attempting to tell the truth, he said: ‘We’re used to a politics where we share facts but diverge on opinions. We are confronting — increasingly because of the rise of social media — a politics where people’s social media feeds can be an echo

That, pictured above, is what the Scottish government wants you to remember about the latest GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland) figures released today. It’s not, at least according to these calculations, an untruth. Per capita revenues from Scotland are indeed higher than per capita revenues for the UK as a whole once – importantly – a geographical share of North Sea revenues are assigned to Scotland. Hurrah! Winning! Except, of course, these are Revenue and Expenditure figures. And the latter confirm that, once again, per capita spending in Scotland is significantly higher than in the UK as a whole. Some £1,200 per head higher. 1200 is a larger number than 400.

[audioplayer src=”http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/the-snp-threat-to-westminster/media.mp3″ title=”Alex Massie and Sebastian Payne discuss what an SNP victory will mean for the union” startat=42] Listen [/audioplayer]Anyone seeking to understand the strength of the SNP should look to those parts of Scotland where the party is supposed to be weakest. At the last election, the nationalists took just under 10 per cent of the vote in the Scottish Borders. This year, Tory canvass returns suggest the SNP may treble its share of the vote in one of the most staunchly unionist seats in Scotland. For months, opinion polls have made unremittingly gloomy reading for unionists. The nationalists are heading for a victory on a scale still not

After the Scottish referendum campaign, the Union could probably have done with a period of calm. But it is not going to get it. Who gets to form a government at Westminster after the next election could turn on what happens in Scotland and how many seats the SNP wins. This fact is making both Labour and the Tories behave in ways that are damaging to the Union. Jim Murphy, the new leader of Scottish Labour, has decided to try and show that he is prepared to pick fights with London too, in the hope that will take some of the wind out of the Nationalists’ sales. Hence his deliberately

What’s the most significant political story of the week, Ukip winning Rochester or Emily Thornberry’s resignation? Well, I suspect, it might be neither of them and that the really big event this week happened north of the border, Nicola Sturgeon being sworn in as First Minister. For the new SNP leader is riding a quite remarkable wave of popularity. Right now, she’s addressing a rally at the Glasgow Hydro, a 12,000 seat venue that she sold out faster than Kylie Minogue—what other politician in Britain could hope to do that?   As I say in the column this week, what makes Sturgeon’s popularity all the more remarkable is that she