Scotland

Christmas Scandal: Bute House Edition

Why do so many people hate politics? Partly because politicians insist upon making everything a matter of wearying, partisan, sillyness. Take this painting for instance. Hardly a masterpiece, not least because the young girl looks as though she knows she’s marching off to doom and that is the consequence of yet another episode of national folly. But, still, it’s just a picture and, in the end, only a Christmas card. But it’s Alex Salmond’s official Christmas card and so, natch, a matter for bickering and seasonal tomfoolery. As the Scotsman, which oddly now seems to consider the Cross of St Andrew a piece of “nationalist iconography” that, presumably, therefore belongs

The odds on independence

Whenever a London bookmaker made odds on Scottish politics, my former colleagues at The Scotsman used to make easy money*. The world of Holyrood, where yours truly served a one year tour of duty, has its own political weather system that it’s hard to understand from a distance – so likelihoods are given very high odds. But today Ladbrokes gives odds that I think are pretty fair: 20-1 on independence before 2015. The SNP’s rout in Glasgow North West a fortnight ago is part of a wider reluctance to separate from England. The financial crisis, and the way that RBS somehow became the new Darien Scheme, has spooked everyone. Salmond

Alex Massie

An Open Letter to Alex Salmond

Dear Alex, Happy St Andrew’s Day! Today you publish your mildly-awaited plans for a referendum on Scottish Independence. Alas, unless the Liberal Democrats can be persuaded to endorse the bill, there’s little prospect of any such referendum actually happening. Such are the traumas of minority government. Of course, you find yourself trapped: if the SNP were stronger, the Unionist parties would refuse the referendum for fear they might lose it, but with the SNP seeming weak, and heading for a tricky Westminster election, they’ve concluded that there’s no point in having the referendum either. Why, they ask, give you the satisfaction? Some of the opposition is certainly personal. This, you

Caledonian Blues

Ochone, ochone! The plight of the Scottish Tories has been receiving attention again this week. As Pete pointed out, the latest Tartan poll puts the Tories at just 18% north of the Tweed. This means, 12 years on from the 1997 disaster, that, in Iain Martin’s words, “They’re getting absolutely nowhere, slowly.”  True. In 1979, Scottish Conservatives won 22 seats and comprised 6.5% of the UK parliamentary party. It’s fair to say they’ll get nowhere near that next year. But look at this list of some of the seats the Tories won thirty years ago: Aberdeenshire East, Angus South, Argyll, Banff, Galloway, Moray &Nairn, Perth & East Perthshire. Most were

The SNP flees for the hills

Last week, I argued that the Glasgow North East by-election would force the SNP to alter its tactics. The Scottish press are reporting that Salmond will scrap his plans for a straight referendum on independence in favour of a multi-option poll on what further powers Holyrood should assume, short of independence. Such a withdrawal was being mooted before the election but has been accelerated by the scale of the SNP’s defeat and its disintegrating confidence. This concession is seen as the only way the SNP minority government can maintain the co-operation of opposition parties on the issue. Only, according to the Daily Record, they won’t play ball. Opposition parties are

The tactics of political insurgency

That Labour held one of its safest seats is newsworthy either indicates how desperate the party’s predicament is or that it is a very slow news day. Anything other than a Labour win, and a substantial one at that, was unthinkable; even the resolutely fanciful SNP must have acknowledged that privately. However, this by-election raises some interesting points nonetheless. As Alex Massie notes, the gloss has come of the hubristic SNP. Salmond’s Braveheart act about winning 20 seats and seeing Westminster “hanging from a Scottish rope” looked optimistic-to-mad when first performed; now it just looks mad.  Salmond’s tactic of simultaneously posing as ruler and insurgent has backfired: Labour can play

Alex Massie

Lessons from Glasgow North-East

The result hasn’t been officially announced yet but it’s clear that Labour have won a handsome victory in the Glasgow North-East by-election. That’s no surprise. I don’t think the SNP ever really expected to prevail though, of course, they hoped they might be able to repeat the Miracle of Glasgow East. Still, they thought they’d be more competitive than they have been. Then again, this seat has been Labour for 74 years so a loss in Springburn might have done for poor old Gordon Brown. Happily for Labour the party was able to run as an opposition party, protesting against the SNP’s alleged parsimonious attitude towards Glasgow. The (surprising) cancellation

Referendum Questions: The 1707 Edition

Now that the Conservatives have promised a referendum on any future transfers of power to Brussels and have, in general, become fans of referenda perhaps the party leadership can address the other looming referendum issue: that pertaining to the Act of Union of 1707. Perhaps you can be in favour of a referendum on Lisbon and other EU matters and opposed to a Scottish independence referendum but I confess to finding this combination implausible and unsatisfactory. Furthermore, a referendum is clearly popular: polling suggests that roughly 60% of voters want such a vote and that they want it sooner rather than later. This being so, and in light of recent

The State We’re In

Deficits aren’t necessarily the end of the world but they’re not your best chum either. This chart, pinched from Burning Our Money, is a handy reminder of where we are and the pickle we’re in. Worse than Spain! Worse than the United States! Worse than Iceland! Worse than Ireland! Gordon Brown FTW. Sure, in the long run we’re all dead. But we don’t have to be dead quite so soon, do we? As always, the Nordics fare very well in this sort of caper. But look too at our friends in New Zealand – a model of how a non-Nordic, English-speaking country can still do pretty well for itself. Yet

Referendum Delayed: 2012 to be the new 2010?

So, it seems that dreams of a referendum next year have been dashed. 2010, once the Year of the Referendum, will now be plebiscite-free. No referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and no referendum on the Act of Union either. This my be good news for voters but it’s tough on hacks who’ll need to find something else to write about. But, for a moment, let’s consider some of the implications of this. I’ll leave the Lisbon question to one side for now and reiterate my suspicion that Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats are helping, not hindering Alex Salmond, by agreeing to delay nay referendum until after the next

Cameron in front of the press

David Cameron was in confident form at his press conference this morning. Most of the questions were about the possibility of President Blair and Tory opposition to that. But three other things from the event were worth noting. First, Cameron’s announcement that the Tories will publish their top three or four priorities for each department shows the influence of the Institute for Government on Tory thinking. Michael Bichard, the director of the Institute, was David Blunkett’s permanent secretary at the Department for Education and Employment and Blunkett’s success in this job is largely credited to him and Bichard working out a few priorities and sticking to them. The Tories are

Setting the Clocks Free

Hardy Perennial Watch: Daylight Savings Time Edition. Yup, some things are certain and among them is the fuss over the ending of British Summer Time tonight. For years the North has handily Defeated the South but I suspect that, just as Dave Cameron’s southern chums may be about to supplant Gordon Brown’s North Britons, so too will the South, er, rise again and eventually prevail in the Great Clock Battle of Britain. The case for change – that is, for not changing the clocks –  is not a bad one even if it has always been defeated by the Scottish lobby. (No surprise there, eh, Spectator readers?) The Times makes

Dancing to a Scottish Jig? Aye, Right.

Och, David, dinna fash yersel’. The chances of Alex Salmond playing a tune for anyone to dance to next year are a good deal slimmer than the First Minister himself. His speech was, like Gordon Brown’s in Brighton, a parochial affair, designed to appeal to the lumpen party memebership, not convince anyone who ain’t already a true believer.  It was, then, absurd. But no more absurd than is the rule at this kind of gathering. Then again, it was, in one sense, a Unionist speech, albeit one cloaked in nationalist rhetoric. Public spending in Scotland has essentially doubled in Scotland since devolution (without, it must be said, doing very much

Is David Cameron going to be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

Could David Cameron be the last Prime Minister of the United Kingdom? Clearly we’re getting ahead of ourselves here, but… Some regular commenters will hope so since this would, depending upon your political preferences, either be the long-awaited national awakening or an opportunity to put the uppity Jocks in thier place and see how many bannocks that butters. I’m indebted to Joan McAlpine for alerting me to Jackie Ashley’s column making exactly this case. Not making it persuasively but making it nevertheless. Now, granted, Ashley’s piece appears to be a curious mash-up of SNP and Labour talking points designed to suggest that the only patriotic vote is a Labour vote

School’s Out: The Swedish Model is Not the Only One.

Like other sensible people I’m encouraged by the Tories plans for education in England. The Swedish system of Free Schools has a lot to be said for it. Still, I wonder why the Tories have chosen Sweden as their role model rather than, say, the Netherlands or New Zealand both of which also have extensive school choice programmes. As you can see, both those countries score very well on the PISA* scale (generally seen, I think, as the best international comparison) and do markedly better than the UK. Of course, Michael Gove’s writ runs out at the Tweed. Which is a shame, since education policy in Scotland remains wholly in

Trumpton-on-the-North-Sea Latest: The Donald Can Still Buy Your House

It had been expected – according to press reports admittedly – that Aberdeenshire Council would lift the threat of compulsory purchase orders being used to evict four families from their homes to pacify Donald Trump’s demand for yet more land for his golf course development on the Menie Estate, near Aberdeen. Well, so much for expectations. Alas. By 57 votes to six the council rejected that proposal, claiming, according to the BBC that it would be “inappropriate to reject the use of CPOs completely without a full report.” While it’s good that the Council hasn’t yet endorsed compulsory purchase orders, it’s depressing that they remain on the table at all

Lockerbie & the Scotland Act

Could government ministers in London have stepped-in to prevent the release of Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi? A report in Scotland on Sunday yesterday says yes they could: Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy could have overruled Scottish justice secretary Kenny MacAskill and stopped the release of Abdelbaset Ali Mohmed al-Megrahi if the case was deemed to have breached “international obligations”. Senior diplomats have insisted there was a “clear understanding” between the UK and the US that Megrahi would serve out his sentence in Scotland. The US Justice and State departments have also insisted they had been given assurances in the 1990s that Megrahi would remain imprisoned under Scottish jurisdiction. […]Andrew Mackinlay, a senior

Public Spending Cuts: The Theory vs The Reality

Everyone agrees that cuts in public spending are necessary. Everyone also agrees that we could do with a better and more candid class of politician. And everyone should agree that we could do with better newspapers too. It’s budget week here in Scotland and that means there’s the chance to preview some of arguments that are going to be had at Westminster next year. So how does the Scottish Daily Mail report the SNP’s budget? With the splash: CUTS AT HOME, CASH FOR AFRICA. How charming. Apparently As SNP budget paves way for savage cuts in housing, transport and education, Salmond finds extra millions for pet foreign aid projects. You

Lockerbie Fallout: A (Fake) American Backlash

So, via Iain Dale, the News of the World has a story claiming that: Britain was facing the likelihood of an increased terror threat last night — after America’s CIA chiefs threatened to stop sharing vital intelligence with us following the Lockerbie bomber’s release.   The Americans have already warned British intelligence services that sending cancer-stricken Abdelbaset al-Megrahi home to Libya has destroyed our “special relationship”.   But the fallout following the bomber’s release has now worsened with the CIA threat to stop sharing information on terrorists gathered by their agents.   They have also warned they may not pass on vital information picked up by their sophisticated eavesdropping satellites.

Disappointment Deferred

Scott Brown #6 of Scotland celebrates after scoring the opening goal, with team mates Kenny Miller and Darren Fletcher during the  2010 World Cup Qualifier match beteween Scotland and Macedonia at Hampden Park. Photo: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images. Oh dear. Scotland won a football match today. Ordinarily this is occasion for huzzahs and trebles all round. But, really, we all know that it’s simply a matter of Delaying the Disappointment. To recap: for 50 minutes or so Scotland were dire. Against Macedonia. At home. Now all that’s needed is victory over Holland on Wednesday, results elsewhere to fall into place and the trifling matter of a play-off against a better